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2024 Big 12 Preview

PAC MAN said:
That road trip to Lubbock ain’t going to be easy.

www.espn.com

Brooks, 4th in FBS rushing, returns to Texas Tech

Tahj Brooks, who was fourth in FBS with 1,443 rushing yards and scored 9 touchdowns, will return to Texas Tech in 2024 for a fifth season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

#4 RB in the country decided that another year in Lubbock was better than being in a NFL camp next summer.
Click to expand...
That decision surprised me. NFL much prefers RBs with low mileage. No matter what he does in '24, he's almost certainly hurting his draft stock.
 
Buffnik said:
That decision surprised me. NFL much prefers RBs with low mileage. No matter what he does in '24, he's almost certainly hurting his draft stock.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking he felt there was unfinished business in Lubbock after what appears to be a disappointing season for the Red Raiders. If they find a QB (not convinced they have one on their current roster), they could be dangerous because they appear to have a decent core of receivers returning.

Good thing Brooks is returning otherwise TT could be looking for a new HC for 2025. MacGuire is entering his pivotal third season in Lubbock and the Red Raiders were picked to finish 4th in the preseason Big 12 media rankings.
 
KSU has DJ Giddens and he appears to be a local kid (out of nearby Junction City) but KSU is going to have to replace four out of five starters on their OL. That very well explains why people like Will Howard headed for the transfer portal. Also two other QBs and it appears that Avery Johnson is the KSU QB for next season. But that OL...

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They do return their top receiver in TE Ben Sinnot.

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If they can cobble together an OL...they would be tough to beat.
 
**** Kansas state.

**** the big xii.

**** this ****hole.

Kill them all and get the **** out.

Destroy Burn It Down GIF by Nicole
 
This is weird. I was trying to understand our SOS in the B12 next year. ESPN’s CF standings only go through the first 9 games of the season right now.
www.espn.com

College Football Standings, 2023 season - ESPN

Visit ESPN for the complete 2023 NCAAF season standings. Includes league, conference and division standings for regular season and playoffs.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Anyway, we’ve got a relatively even distribution of top teams, middling teams, and bad teams. That last category was something that didn’t exist in the P12 this past year.

I’ll feel a **** ton better about the season if we go 3-0 in non-conf play to start. If we go 5-4 in conf play after that, it would be 8 wins - but I don’t look at any game as unwinnable. Depending on the rest of the portal results and who gets here by spring, I may consider us favored in all of them.
 
Highlander said:
This is weird. I was trying to understand our SOS in the B12 next year. ESPN’s CF standings only go through the first 9 games of the season right now.
www.espn.com

College Football Standings, 2023 season - ESPN

Visit ESPN for the complete 2023 NCAAF season standings. Includes league, conference and division standings for regular season and playoffs.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Anyway, we’ve got a relatively even distribution of top teams, middling teams, and bad teams. That last category was something that didn’t exist in the P12 this past year.

I’ll feel a **** ton better about the season if we go 3-0 in non-conf play to start. If we go 5-4 in conf play after that, it would be 8 wins - but I don’t look at any game as unwinnable. Depending on the rest of the portal results and who gets here by spring, I may consider us favored in all of them.
Click to expand...

That game at Kansas does not look winnable to me at this point. The Jayhawks have quite a few defenders returning (lose maybe just two starters on that side of the ball) and if that dynamic QB stays healthy plus their starting RB decides to come back for another season, KU will be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 next season. Kansas does not face Utah or Arizona next season. Same for Kansas State.

Texas Tech on the road will be another difficult one if the Red Raiders find a QB. If not, CU could get out of Lubbock with a close win in that one.

The road games at Arizona and UCF appear winnable at this point.

Right now I'd say KU, KSU, OSU, and Utah are the frontrunners for the Big 12 title next season based on the scheduling. Behind them would be TT, WVU, and TCU. CU would be behind that group with ISU and Arizona.

I do not see the Big 12 as having more than one CFP bid next season. CU could win the Big 12 IF the Buffs sweep the home slate and go at least 3-1 on the road with the lone loss being at KU. That could mean beating KU, Utah, KSU, or OSU after playing them in the season.

Right now I do not expect the Buffs to contend for the Big 12 title but a bowl game is pretty certain at this point. Buffs should beat Baylor and Cincy at home. UCF on the road is almost a certain win because UCF loses a ton of players from this year's squad. Key home game appears to be against KSU.
 
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Things aren't looking too bright for Baylor. Their HC is on perhaps the hottest seat in the Big 12. Their starting QB entered the transfer portal even if he does have some RBs and WRs coming back. The Bears beat UCF by one point on the road, lost to Houston at home by one point, and had to withstand a comeback attempt at Cinncinnati, winning by just three points. TCU blew them out 41-17. To summarize everything, they were as bad as the newcomers were this year.

They do host TCU, OSU, and KU at home but I wouldn't think BU wins those games. Maybe BYU at home but that's pretty much it. I only see one road game that BU could win and that is at Houston but that is going to depend on if the Cougars return their starting QB from this season. Maybe two Big 12 wins and that's it.

Non-conference doesn't look easy with Tarlenton, Air Force, and a non-conference trip to Utah. Utah is going to whoop them and you know Air Force probably beats them. But what about Tarlenton? They were denied entry into the FCS playoffs despite finishing second in the UAC and they had only three seniors on this year's squad. The Texans lost at Texas Tech 41-3 earlier this season so BU should beat the Texans but the Texans could make things uncomfortable for the Bears in Waco.

Baylor will have a new HC in 2025.
 
Given what’s happening with the transfer portal and coaching staff, it seems odd to talk about no hope games next season. I don’t think the Buffs win them all but I don’t think anyone can predict how close games will be until the dust settles a bit.
 
NW Buff said:
Given what’s happening with the transfer portal and coaching staff, it seems odd to talk about no hope games next season. I don’t think the Buffs win them all but I don’t think anyone can predict how close games will be until the dust settles a bit.
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Again, KU is to return the majority of their defense, their returning QB is one of the best in the Big 12 if he's healthy, and they have some receivers coming back. Even if Devin Neal moves on to the NFL, Lance Lepoid usually has some good RBs waiting in the wings. The only unknown for KU at this point is who will the backup QB be.

Jayhawks were #4 in the Big 12 in total yards given up and had the second best pass d in the Big 12 (UCF was ahead by five yards). The Jayhawks were also #4 in points scored behind OU & UT and KSU. Given that KSU is losing almost their entire starting OL after this season, it's not unreasonable to believe that KU has the best offense coming back when it comes the current Big 12 schools in the Big 12 next season.
 
PAC MAN said:
Again, KU is to return the majority of their defense, their returning QB is one of the best in the Big 12 if he's healthy, and they have some receivers coming back. Even if Devin Neal moves on to the NFL, Lance Lepoid usually has some good RBs waiting in the wings. The only unknown for KU at this point is who will the backup QB be.

Jayhawks were #4 in the Big 12 in total yards given up and had the second best pass d in the Big 12 (UCF was ahead by five yards). The Jayhawks were also #4 in points scored behind OU & UT and KSU. Given that KSU is losing almost their entire starting OL after this season, it's not unreasonable to believe that KU has the best offense coming back when it comes the current Big 12 schools in the Big 12 next season.
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Still not going to call a team that went 5-4 in conf this year a no hope game next year when we have no clue what the Buff roster is going to look like yet. Tough game? Sure. Oregon-level beat down? Not there yet.

I do appreciate your analysis of our future conference though.
 
NW Buff said:
Still not going to call a team that went 5-4 in conf this year a no hope game next year when we have no clue what the Buff roster is going to look like yet. Tough game? Sure. Oregon-level beat down? Not there yet.

I do appreciate your analysis of our future conference though.
Click to expand...

I feel better about CU's chances against KSU & OSU at home than on the road at KU because those two nearly all their starting OLs. After going through TT's most recent game notes against Texas, I'm feeling better about CU's chances in Lubbock since TT looks like they are losing three starters at OL and eight starters on defense. That is why it was surprising that TT's leading RB decided to not go to the NFL at this point. Maybe he's confident in two other OL backups that started a few games last year and not counting this year.

I don't expect to change my mind about that KU game though.
 
Adding more data to the first post. I'm going through the game programs from each team's final regular season game and going through the depth charts. About done with CU's current Big 12 opponents for next year. Also added UA, ASU, and Utah's expected returnees. I might finish the remaining Big 12 schools that are not scheduled to play CU next fall this afternoon.

Oklahoma State is getting hit very hard with eight seniors listed in their OL two deep. It would be a big surprise if Ollie Gordon II returns to Stillwater next season. I'm moving from toss up to a lean towards a win over OSU in Boulder next season. Only one DL out of the two deep is expected back too. I guess I'll drop them from consideration for the B12 title next season.
 
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PAC MAN said:
Adding more data to the first post. I'm going through the game programs from each team's final regular season game and going through the depth charts. About done with CU's current Big 12 opponents for next year.

Oklahoma State is getting hit very hard with eight seniors listed in their OL two deep. It would be a big surprise if Ollie Gordon II returns to Stillwater next season. I'm moving from toss up to a lean towards a win over OSU in Boulder next season. Only one DL out of the two deep is expected back too. I guess I'll drop them from consideration for the B12 title next season.
Click to expand...
Gordon would be a huge loss. I read somewhere 6th year TTech to Mich to OSU QB Alan Bowman "can seek a 7th year"....who knows?

Minus Ollie and Bowman, Pokes likely to take step back. I saw OSU early last year and were rotating bad qbs until Bowman became serviceable to pretty good. Gundy closer to Dabo than Lincoln Riley attitude toward portal...gonna need help at QB position.
 
Mick Ronson said:
Gordon would be a huge loss. I read somewhere 6th year TTech to Mich to OSU QB Alan Bowman "can seek a 7th year"....who knows?

Minus Ollie and Bowman, Pokes likely to take step back. I saw OSU early last year and were rotating bad qbs until Bowman became serviceable to pretty good. Gundy closer to Dabo than Lincoln Riley attitude toward portal...gonna need help at QB position.
Click to expand...

Wasn't aware of Bowman and I knew he was at TT for awhile. My listings aren't going to be accurate because I am not able to tell who is a senior and a super senior. I'm ready for a return to where there are no super seniors.

But man the OL situation appears dire. If I was Bowman and Gordon, I'd jump in the portal. If they both return, that might be a sign of confidence in the returning OL players.

I'm thinking Mike Gundy told his son to go elsewhere so it would be easier to attract better transfer QBs.

A step back in 2024 is pretty likely imo.
 
I know it's a Texas Longhorn site but way too early 2024 rankings.

longhornswire.usatoday.com

Way-too-early Top 25 projections for the 2024 college football season

Quinn Ewers’ likely return ranks Texas highly in our 2024 way-too-early Top 25.
longhornswire.usatoday.com longhornswire.usatoday.com

21. KSU
17. Oklahoma State
16. Kansas
15. Arizona
6. Utah

OSU in the Top 25 is questionable but as long as they have Ollie Gordon II and Mike Gundy as the HC, they will be viewed favorably.
 
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