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2024 CFB Predictions/Gambling Thread

AZ @ Co Buffs
Common opponent KSU

@ Manhatten: Az 7 - KSU 31
@ Boulder: CU 28 - KSU 31

Similar defenses held KSU to 31

Superior Co offense can be neutered by forcing it to run. Nobody has. To win all Co has to do is get its usual 350 through the air. Everything else being equal the game will be over.

GAM:

Co. -5. Az. 5
O/U: 54.5
Mythical Score: Co 29 - AZ 25

We haven’t made a move yet. Must review odds. Going too early opens you up to uncertainties. Going in too late may cost in the form of less generous odds. Ie. Un-betable

We were in almost a full 2 weeks early for the KSU game. We got 5.5 cheap and those odds would tighten significantly so we were happy we got in cheap. But, that left a lot of time for a key player to get the flu or cold or who knows what. It worked out so we are happy.

We will check tomorrow. If the odds are good we will move.

Currently $570 up. It’s all house $ now.

Ps. Cut and paste from notes program. All data hand entered into proprietary spread sheet. All calculations performed by computer. Is that AI? lol
 
Passerby said:
AZ @ Co Buffs
Common opponent KSU

@ Manhatten: Az 7 - KSU 31
@ Boulder: CU 28 - KSU 31

Similar defenses held KSU to 31

Superior Co offense can be neutered by forcing it to run. Nobody has. To win all Co has to do is get its usual 350 through the air. Everything else being equal the game will be over.

GAM:

Co. -5. Az. 5
O/U: 54.5
Mythical Score: Co 29 - AZ 25

We haven’t made a move yet. Must review odds. Going too early opens you up to uncertainties. Going in too late may cost in the form of less generous odds. Ie. Un-betable

We were in almost a full 2 weeks early for the KSU game. We got 5.5 cheap and those odds would tighten significantly so we were happy we got in cheap. But, that left a lot of time for a key player to get the flu or cold or who knows what. It worked out so we are happy.

We will check tomorrow. If the odds are good we will move.

Currently $570 up. It’s all house $ now.

Ps. Cut and paste from notes program. All data hand entered into proprietary spread sheet. All calculations performed by computer. Is that AI? lol
Click to expand...
You should make $500 your unit size
 
Mean Girls Movie GIF by filmeditor

Buffnik said:
Who has a season Over bet at 5.5 as we head into tonight's Buff game?
Click to expand...
 
Not CFB, but I took the moneyline against the Nuggets in the last two games as an emotional hedge.

At this point is it my duty to keep fading them?
 
Robert Sorell said:
Not CFB, but I took the moneyline against the Nuggets in the last two games as an emotional hedge.

At this point is it my duty to keep fading them?
Click to expand...
Nugs are in for a slightly above .500 season. No talent beyond Jokic, Murray and Gordon
 
Robert Sorell said:
MPJ is overpaid, but a pretty damn good talent for 4th option.

They still have a top flight starting 5, the bench is rough.
Click to expand...
When we eventually look back on the Jokic era where the Nugs had arguably the greatest center of all time, the question will be … why didn’t the Nugs win more than 1 NBA Championship?

And the answer will be Michael Porter Jr producing at a 5 mil/yr level for 35 mil/yr.
 
rosstr said:
When we eventually look back on the Jokic era where the Nugs had arguably the greatest center of all time, the question will be … why didn’t the Nugs win more than 1 NBA Championship?

And the answer will be Michael Porter Jr producing at a 5 mil/yr level for 35 mil/yr.
Click to expand...
GM’s. Not everyone can be Sam Presti.
 
rosstr said:
When we eventually look back on the Jokic era where the Nugs had arguably the greatest center of all time, the question will be … why didn’t the Nugs win more than 1 NBA Championship?

And the answer will be Michael Porter Jr producing at a 5 mil/yr level for 35 mil/yr.
Click to expand...
Really? No other reasons? Jamal Murray blown ACLs don't have anything to do with it? And I will accept reasonable arguments that MPJ is overpaid, but $5 mil/yr is the 245th biggest contract in the NBA this year. Think that might be a bit of hyperbole there?

And why is this discussion happening in this thread. Bah.
 
torero said:
Really? No other reasons? Jamal Murray blown ACLs don't have anything to do with it? And I will accept reasonable arguments that MPJ is overpaid, but $5 mil/yr is the 245th biggest contract in the NBA this year. Think that might be a bit of hyperbole there?

And why is this discussion happening in this thread. Bah.
Click to expand...
So what’s your number? He underperforms by 25 million? 20 million? That’s burying the point in semantics.

Jamal Murray blew out his ACL last year too?!
 
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