2024 CFB Predictions/Gambling Thread

[Burrito]

Twatwaffle. Just sayin'

 

[rynobuff]

KSU @ UCO
Colorado 24 Kansas State 27

Co +3. KSU -3

O/U 51.5


our system has the Buffs a 3 pt dog. The primary difference is defense. The Buffaloes are allowing almost 100 yds/game more. On offense the Buffaloes are out gained by almost 50. These differences are significant and material.



Secondly the Kansas State defense is far stinger on points allowed. Even though they score fewer points their points allowed is only 71.



No home field. It’s baked into the statistics



Advantage is to Colorado when it comes to the virtual field. Their offense plays on a short 92 yard field. Kansas State is playing on the regulation 100 yards



Defense is pretty close. The Buffaloes are forcing opponents offense to play on a 115 yard field. Kansas State 117.



Why we follow the Buffaloes:



An option trader would say they have a high IV (implied volatility). This leads to better odds. The team is exciting and anything can happen. Lots of action lots of money



Their delta is the leverage we saw last week: Great on-the-money odds




The gamma: the relatively cheap cost of points



The O/U is the tough one. I call it Vega or Rho.

We are currently trying to determine if the game is betable. We won’t know for sre until next week.

I want Tufftiger back

 

[Shambo]

Broke even this weekend, but that CU ML saved me. Not the best last two weeks, but started strong with Army on Thursday and then lost a few teasers and lost out on Travis o95.5 receiving yards.

After a strong start to the season, the last two weekends have been slightly net negative overall.

Cuse-UNLV should be a fun one on Friday. Have no clue on that line.

Clemson -14 at FSU, and Georgia -20 stand out for Saturday. Thorne has been mostly awful when I've watched and I'm guessing the Dawgs come out pissed. FSU benched DJU in the SMU game, but they've been getting torched and now Clemson comes to town. Vegas must know something at only -14

 

[Bear Fiend]

KSU @ UCO
Colorado 24 Kansas State 27

Co +3. KSU -3

O/U 51.5


our system has the Buffs a 3 pt dog. The primary difference is defense. The Buffaloes are allowing almost 100 yds/game more. On offense the Buffaloes are out gained by almost 50. These differences are significant and material.



Secondly the Kansas State defense is far stinger on points allowed. Even though they score fewer points their points allowed is only 71.



No home field. It’s baked into the statistics



Advantage is to Colorado when it comes to the virtual field. Their offense plays on a short 92 yard field. Kansas State is playing on the regulation 100 yards



Defense is pretty close. The Buffaloes are forcing opponents offense to play on a 115 yard field. Kansas State 117.



Why we follow the Buffaloes:



An option trader would say they have a high IV (implied volatility). This leads to better odds. The team is exciting and anything can happen. Lots of action lots of money



Their delta is the leverage we saw last week: Great on-the-money odds




The gamma: the relatively cheap cost of points



The O/U is the tough one. I call it Vega or Rho.

We are currently trying to determine if the game is betable. We won’t know for sre until next week.

When you copy/paste a bunch of bull**** it is standard practice to remove the extra line breaks and correct spelling mistakes. Even that waffletwat Flounder manages to do this.

 

[Passerby]

When you copy/paste a bunch of bull**** it is standard practice to remove the extra line breaks and correct spelling mistakes. Even that waffletwat Flounder manages to do this.

Are you that thousand dollar guy? Did you pay?

 

[GoBeers]

I did this exact thing on Wednesday. Crossed the border, bought some fireworks and fired up the app. I wanted to get my player props in before the game. BetMGM is already offering me a decent return on Travis . Should make for a fun season.

Travis alien-mode,
Heisman shines, wallet roars,
Hookers, blow on meView attachment 75292

Hunter to win the Heisman down to +700 now. I'm lazy and never made the drive.

 

[Highlander]

Hunter to win the Heisman down to +700 now. I'm lazy and never made the drive.

It was +500 on DK this morning. I passed.