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2024 CFB Predictions/Gambling Thread

Passerby said:
KSU @ UCO
Colorado 24 Kansas State 27

Co +3. KSU -3

O/U 51.5


our system has the Buffs a 3 pt dog. The primary difference is defense. The Buffaloes are allowing almost 100 yds/game more. On offense the Buffaloes are out gained by almost 50. These differences are significant and material.



Secondly the Kansas State defense is far stinger on points allowed. Even though they score fewer points their points allowed is only 71.



No home field. It’s baked into the statistics



Advantage is to Colorado when it comes to the virtual field. Their offense plays on a short 92 yard field. Kansas State is playing on the regulation 100 yards



Defense is pretty close. The Buffaloes are forcing opponents offense to play on a 115 yard field. Kansas State 117.



Why we follow the Buffaloes:



An option trader would say they have a high IV (implied volatility). This leads to better odds. The team is exciting and anything can happen. Lots of action lots of money



Their delta is the leverage we saw last week: Great on-the-money odds




The gamma: the relatively cheap cost of points



The O/U is the tough one. I call it Vega or Rho.

We are currently trying to determine if the game is betable. We won’t know for sre until next week.
Click to expand...
I want Tufftiger back
 
Broke even this weekend, but that CU ML saved me. Not the best last two weeks, but started strong with Army on Thursday and then lost a few teasers and lost out on Travis o95.5 receiving yards.

After a strong start to the season, the last two weekends have been slightly net negative overall.

Cuse-UNLV should be a fun one on Friday. Have no clue on that line.

Clemson -14 at FSU, and Georgia -20 stand out for Saturday. Thorne has been mostly awful when I've watched and I'm guessing the Dawgs come out pissed. FSU benched DJU in the SMU game, but they've been getting torched and now Clemson comes to town. Vegas must know something at only -14
 
Passerby said:
KSU @ UCO
Colorado 24 Kansas State 27

Co +3. KSU -3

O/U 51.5


our system has the Buffs a 3 pt dog. The primary difference is defense. The Buffaloes are allowing almost 100 yds/game more. On offense the Buffaloes are out gained by almost 50. These differences are significant and material.



Secondly the Kansas State defense is far stinger on points allowed. Even though they score fewer points their points allowed is only 71.



No home field. It’s baked into the statistics



Advantage is to Colorado when it comes to the virtual field. Their offense plays on a short 92 yard field. Kansas State is playing on the regulation 100 yards



Defense is pretty close. The Buffaloes are forcing opponents offense to play on a 115 yard field. Kansas State 117.



Why we follow the Buffaloes:



An option trader would say they have a high IV (implied volatility). This leads to better odds. The team is exciting and anything can happen. Lots of action lots of money



Their delta is the leverage we saw last week: Great on-the-money odds




The gamma: the relatively cheap cost of points



The O/U is the tough one. I call it Vega or Rho.

We are currently trying to determine if the game is betable. We won’t know for sre until next week.
Click to expand...
When you copy/paste a bunch of bull**** it is standard practice to remove the extra line breaks and correct spelling mistakes. Even that waffletwat Flounder manages to do this.
 
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HaikuBUFF said:
I did this exact thing on Wednesday. Crossed the border, bought some fireworks and fired up the app. I wanted to get my player props in before the game. BetMGM is already offering me a decent return on Travis :LOL:. Should make for a fun season.

Travis alien-mode,
Heisman shines, wallet roars,
Hookers, blow on meView attachment 75292
Click to expand...
Hunter to win the Heisman down to +700 now. I'm lazy and never made the drive.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Duke +9.5
Clemson -14.5
Texas A&M ML

4-leg parlay:
Oregon -22.5
Pitt -2.5
NC State -4.5
Cal +10.5
Click to expand...
That Clemson line seems too easy, so it's giving me pause but it jumped out right away when the lines dropped.

I took Tulane, Army, Navy and Toledo all to cover tomorrow. Had Sam Houston State last night, and did a small teaser tonight on Sparty+28.5 and over 46.5.
 
Bear Fiend said:
You should call and tell them you meant 10k. I am sure they would update it.
Click to expand...
I was placing a bunch of "fun" small dollar, large payout bets on this season with a small portion of last season's earnings.

All totaled i think i wagered $60-70 on various long shot fun bets like "Colorado makes the playoff," but what sort of annoys me now is that I knew then that this bet had both the most likely payoff *and* the best odds on offer, and I did consider just putting all of my "fun money random bets" on this one.

But I didn't.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
 
LET'S GET WEIRD. Morning edition.

Parlay 1: UCLA +35.5, Navy ML, A&M/Mizzou Over 39.5
Parlay 2: Monmouth +5, Duquesne -6.5
Parlay 3: NC Stae ML, Oregon St -6.5, Wisconsin ML
Parlay 4: Atalanta ML, Basaksehir ML
 
Shambo said:
That Clemson line seems too easy, so it's giving me pause but it jumped out right away when the lines dropped.

I took Tulane, Army, Navy and Toledo all to cover tomorrow. Had Sam Houston State last night, and did a small teaser tonight on Sparty+28.5 and over 46.5.
Click to expand...

****ing Michigan State's late BS field goal killed my parlay
 
skibum said:
I was placing a bunch of "fun" small dollar, large payout bets on this season with a small portion of last season's earnings.

All totaled i think i wagered $60-70 on various long shot fun bets like "Colorado makes the playoff," but what sort of annoys me now is that I knew then that this bet had both the most likely payoff *and* the best odds on offer, and I did consider just putting all of my "fun money random bets" on this one.

But I didn't.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Click to expand...

I snagged CU at +4000 to win the Big 12 this summer. I also recently did a 3 leg parlay with CU and Ole Miss to win their conference and the Mets to win the WS. Threw down $5 for a $27k payout, was worth a shot.
 
What just happened?!? That is hard to fathom. Lowly Vanderbilt who hasn’t won an SEC game since Nixon, beats the number one team in the country that just beat Georgia last week. College football is so great
 
Here's what I'm kicking around for 10/12-

Air Force-New Mexico under 54. I get UNM is better, but AFA is young. They're having issues moving the ball, and they changed QBs. This number feels like it should be 44.
CU +6 because I like free money.
Oklahoma +14.5. Texas is probably one of the two best teams in the country, but I wonder about them here. Georgia's coming to Austin the 19th......motivation for Oklahoma of all people could be an issue for them. 14.5 feels like too much.
 
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I'm eyeing Penn St -5 at SC, Minnesota -5.5 at UCLA, Cuse -4, maybe some teasers in there too (tease Tenn line down, Oklahoma up, Boise down). Army -24 at UAB is intriguing too.
 
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