Well, I guess you start by wishing DE and Wilkerson well for their short stay with the Buffs. Nobody wants to be a backup these days, and everyone wants guaranteed playing time/role. I'm starting to wonder with these guys getting some NIL and basically agents/advisors that comes with that, how much they drive the bus? It seems for every signing, there is a defection or two. Once there is a demotion or not a clear path to substantial playing time, I think the agents/advisors get on the phone.
I think it is pretty much a given that CU will have the most departures and newcomers for the 2nd straight season. The 247 article on DE said we are at 19 scholarship players, but on our 247 portal report we are at 35 counting Grad transfers and walk-ons. Although it is instinctive to question Prime and our staff, we are really not alone. Places like Tex, LSU, Ole Miss, UGA, USC, Fla State (they lost a ton to the draft too) are all over 20. Places you think are real stable with established coaches like Utah (22), Wisconsin(19) are up there as well. The ones with little transfers are Nubs (that roster was not great), Penn St. and Okie State (I do not know why they are not a favorite in the B12). IMO, that is just the portal/NIL era. This year a ton of teams will have new faces playing. A few comments:
1. It is bummer when you see a player with potential like DE, Milner-Jones, Sav Washington (even if just for his size and experience) etc... move on, or just other players who you saw were somewhat proven commodities. It is unsettling because we have seen them play with some highlights.
2. I am putting more stock and faith into Prime and CO, if not for just the fact that their evaluation, recruiting team and resources are bigger and more established than last year.
3. CU had a huge roster to turn over last year, and little time to do it. Many parts are still here, with a ton of potential coming in. IMO, the number keeps going up, but if we add guys in the Top-5th of the portal, they should be upgrades for most guys overall. Also, we knew that we were churning tons of players on our Oline and Dline. I think you have to do the math once it all shakes out--comparing what is incoming v. what is lost.
4. This transfer portal looks like it may approach 3000 guys when all is said and done. CU looks to have a Top 5 transfer class. Prime is still signing guys, and I'm sure there will be many transfer visitors for the Spring game.
5. I did some RX over the weekend looking at the Top 100 guys in the last 3 classes--the cream of the crop. 2021 it looks like only about 1/2 we with their original team or went to the NFL. 2022 was slightly better, but not by much. 2023 was better b/c all the Frosh have not entered--a few have to have some patience. One thing that was surprising for both 2021 and 2022 was the number of guys that were at Non-P65 teams now. HS recruiting is a crap shoot of sorts these days. Prime could be right-on there.
6. The Buffs appear competitive in the transfer sweepstakes. For the most part, we are competing well with the teams that we strive to become. We are signing more guys that played significant downs at their respective schools.
7. As of now, it is not like CU's transfers are trading up schools. Breedlove to Purdue; Bailey to Northwestern and the early guys to Ore St (if you call that trading up given they are really playing in Mtn West now). One thing that might be interesting is whether a very few transfers quickly test the waters and then desire to withdraw their name from the portal, and are welcomed back accepting their role. DE could be one--I think he still has a role in this changed offense, diminished from last year given the scheme and Wester doing returns, but he is very close to Prime. I don't think he starts Day 1 on a Top-40 team, and may not even play with just summer ball. Unless told to leave, Sav Washington, if he just slots 6-8 on another P65, why not consider it? He knows where he slots at CU and it is familiar. Injury or ineffectiveness and he could find himself back on field. Millner-Jones, again if not told to depart, then he knows this DB room, if he is just buried on a new roster, maybe reconsider re-joining the known rather than unknown. The caveat is Prime etc... have to let them back and they cannot be portaled over by a much better player. Only 4% have withdrawn their name, but it does happen. The portal commitment rate is only about 50% overall.
The portal is just a s***show all the way around. College football has changed. For what it is worth. Go Buffs!!