Yes this is a bumpy road but I think you are underestimating how CU will do in the Big 12. The Big 12 is taking a step back this upcoming season. They lose two 20+ win teams in OU & UT. BYU just lost Pope and they still have West Coast Conference recruited players on their roster especially with players coming back from two year missions. We have a 3-3 record against them all time. We are not playing UCLA & UW anymore and those are two Pac-12 schools that we have losing records against. No doubt UCF & Cincinnati are still cycling out their AAC recruited players but I'm not expecting much success against the Bearcats over the long term though. We still have a 15-11 record against Baylor and they don't scare me like Houston. We should be fine with TCU & TT. Iowa State looks strong next season and looking at our Big 8-12 history, the only school that we beat more consistently than ISU is Nebraska which is the only Big 8 school we have a winning record against all time.
And we are coming off a 26 win season. Only one overall losing season under Tad. You need to have the benefit of the doubt about Tad's ability to guide CU to another 20-ish win season next season. We are not beating Houston, ISU, Arizona, KU, and probably KSU next season. The rest of them? We have a chance especially in Boulder.
Baylor
I appreciate all the posts on up-coming BIG-12, & agree w/ a lot of what PAC MAN says here, but have to take most other posters side that CU just not at the same level as Baylor: They've had Top-5 recruiting classes 2 years in a row now/ Scott Drew known as one of the most passionate coaches/ runs environment of "Joy & Faith" (prays w/ his players every day; and many guys want that)/ he's shown elite willingness to adjust his style of play to accommodate players-moving from D-oriented in Championship team a few years ago to 5-Out O last year. All that being said, I tend to agree w/ JUMP SHIP poster that CU may prove to have an unexpected edge over Baylor & maybe even BYU's play-style/ current players (both teams offensive-oriented; Tad's team's may out-defend both of them?).
BYU
Their new NBA-coach makes them biggest unknown in BIG-12? He's known as great players-coach, develops guys well/ and puts guys in position to best use their strengths, but will he prove to be adapt at recruiting a bunch of HS/ college transfer kids? To start, he's got a mostly offensive-oriented team w/ only 3 transfer spots.
BIG-12's Tier 1 (5 current?):
-Kansas/Houston/Baylor/Iowa St & Arizona are the obvious juggernauts of the conference. Iowa St passed Houston for #1 D nationally, & both dominate-team-D.
-Baylor too much talent to not stay in Top-10 Nationally w/ KU, Houston & maybe Iowa St? Arizona's roster I'm not sold on yet, but they brought in a couple beasts in Stephen & Awaka to play behind their 2 European 7-footers. So history and great coaching tells us they're probably Top-25 nationally & Top-5 in Big-12.
- 2nd Tier is where it gets interesting (& likely unpredictable) (4 current; for 9 to tourney?):
-Cinci & UCF surprised, as coaches are Dean Smith (play-the-right-way/D-&-Rbding-1st/ like Tad is). Cinci's roster stronger; UCF with 5 Open Spots & good Gs.
-TX Tech & new WV coaches are both very-strong defensively also. Tech's roster stronger, but lost a lot- 5 open spots still. WV has 6 open spots & a bare cupboard.
-K-State's Tang surprisingly lost a lot, but getting strong returns in portal (still has 4-5 spots, depending on if Kaluma withdraws from NBA by 6/16). Tang not only elite recruiter, but already known as elite in giving keys to his guards to have freedom to run the show (which Tad is also a little lesser known for).
- I put CU -as similar to K-State- in having good coaching & program strength to put good balance of D & O on the floor. CU's toughness biggest question? Cincci & Tx Tech (based on last year) seem strongly in 2nd Tier w/ K-State/CU next? Currently, UCF & BYU (maybe Utah & ASU) seem to have best chance to rise to Tier 2?
-3rd Tier (7 current?):
-Yes, UCF & W Virginia probably more squarely down here (especially w/ WV's brand new coach w/ a lot to prove). OSU's brand new coach keeps them in cellar?
-Utah & ASU will certainly be fighting to belong in 2nd Tier. Utah lost a lot in backcourt(2 spots open). ASU impressively brought in '24 #8 Nationally Big Quaintance!
-BYU & TCU obviously finished in 1st & 2nd Tiers in recent years, but both severely-lacking on D. Both w/ lots of turn-over. TCU w/ 1 Spot & SmallFs to defend PowerFs(like CU?). Until their D raises to high level of their O, could be a struggle to pass 9 teams (that are most likely to get Tourney bids?) in Tier's 1 & 2 above?
-Strong argument can be made that coaching could push BYU/TCU closer to Tier 2, before Utah/ASU? I might pick UCF & BYU-over Cinnci-for 10(vs 9) in tourney?
PS: Cinci's Big Bandaogo seems mostly-likely to withdraw from NBA draft by 6/16 (no agent hired; so retains eligibility) vs.KU's Fruphy/Zona's Love/ K-St's Kaluma? Bandaogo returning may put Cinci more solidly in Top-9? But may be hard year for ANYONE to predict BIG-12 w/ high-roster-turnover & 4-Corner Teams joining?
PSS: Depth of front-courts are not overly-intimidating for CU (after Malone), outside of: KU/Arizona/Iowa St/ASU/Utah. Houston & Baylor do have great length!