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24-25 MBB Team
- Thread starter Buffsbball
- Start date
I wonder if Tad/CU discussed this schedule at all with whoever does basketball strategy for the BIG 12 overall? The BIG 12 was criticized for a lot of teams (especially weaker teams in the BIG 12) having a weak non-con and maybe gaming the NET rankings.
Even without considering the tough conference schedule the BIG 12 brings, it makes sense for CU to schedule light next year given the roster turnover and the uncertainty that brings (+ Maui).
Even without considering the tough conference schedule the BIG 12 brings, it makes sense for CU to schedule light next year given the roster turnover and the uncertainty that brings (+ Maui).
I guess a possible silver lining to the Big 12 move is bad losses in Nov & Dec won't hurt as much as it did in the Pac-12. Although I think we'd all prefer if that wasn't tested.
No deaths. That’s good.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Let me add this-Eastern Washington won the Big Sky regular season title. I know Riley went to Wazzu and took 5 of their guys with him, but they hired Dan Monson. If you remember some of the interviews he did during the NCAAs.....I think he'll be able to keep that going. UNC finished 2nd.
I've posted this before, but when VT was in the big east, only the top 12/14 teams made the conference tourney.
Tech sucked back then and I liked the system as it gave fans of the poorly performing teams something to root for at season's end -- "if we win two of our last three games, we make the conference tourney!"
Luke
Well-Known Member
Way-Too-Early Rankings:
Four (KU/Houston/IowaSt/Baylor) Big12 Teams inTop10; Zona seems more Top-15; Cinci solid Top20-25? BYU/TxTech/K-St getting on a least 1 Top25 list. CU may prove they are closer to finishing Top-7 in Big-12 than 10th if they show-out @MauiInvite:UConn/Auburn/IowaSt/UNC are all Top10 teams; Michigan St & Dayton may be more Top-35; with Memphis only non-NCAA team I see there? I don't think CU even needs to beat Trojans or Flyers to show they are Top-35 also? Strong enough showing could help Buffs' NET Strength of Schedule enough to make an argument for Top35? Gotta hope BYU/ TX Tech/ K-State have early stumbles also?
Four (KU/Houston/IowaSt/Baylor) Big12 Teams inTop10; Zona seems more Top-15; Cinci solid Top20-25? BYU/TxTech/K-St getting on a least 1 Top25 list. CU may prove they are closer to finishing Top-7 in Big-12 than 10th if they show-out @MauiInvite:UConn/Auburn/IowaSt/UNC are all Top10 teams; Michigan St & Dayton may be more Top-35; with Memphis only non-NCAA team I see there? I don't think CU even needs to beat Trojans or Flyers to show they are Top-35 also? Strong enough showing could help Buffs' NET Strength of Schedule enough to make an argument for Top35? Gotta hope BYU/ TX Tech/ K-State have early stumbles also?
Luke
Well-Known Member
Clarification: it is more "Net Value of Efficiency" that could benefit Buffs playing well against elite competition, even if they don't win game, versus SOS. Where-as "Team Value Index" rewards actual results, ie: upsets. These are top-2 factors in NET- see article below. But, yes, Buffs ultimately need good wins in Quads 1 & 2, and need to avoid bad loses in Quads 3 & 4 to ultimately get NCAA-bid & get decent-seed! NET probably doesn't help mid-majors, but definitely helps Power Conferences!
How NCAA Basketball Ranking Works: The Factors Behind College Basketball NET Ranking
For a long time, the National College Athletic Association (NCAA) has remained a solid pillar of authority for diverse competitive sports in the US. Hence, it was much easier to introduce a new…
easyreadernews.com
Luke
Well-Known Member
Maybe I should hope for more Big12 teams in Top-30 vs. Top-35, since this is the cut-off for Quad 1 Home Wins?
Also, there are four quadrants based on where your opponent is ranked, you will hear about Quad 1 and Quad 2 records. For example, San Diego State is ranked 21st and is 2-3 in Quad 1, while Utah State is 24th and is 0-1 in Quad 1 and 2-2 Quad 4. This means that while the Aztecs do have 3 loses, they are to high caliber teams and will not affect their seeding in the tournament. The Aggies however, lost their only Quad 1 game (Boise State ranked 25), and have lost 2 games they should have won in Quad 4. The divisions for the quadrants are:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.
Beginning in 2020, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin were all dropped from the NET ranking. Therefore, only team value and team value index are used to ranked teams. So, the only factors which go into the rankings are efficiency (offensive points per possession minus opponents points per possession), strength of opponents played, location of game, wins and losses, and who won the game.
Also, there are four quadrants based on where your opponent is ranked, you will hear about Quad 1 and Quad 2 records. For example, San Diego State is ranked 21st and is 2-3 in Quad 1, while Utah State is 24th and is 0-1 in Quad 1 and 2-2 Quad 4. This means that while the Aztecs do have 3 loses, they are to high caliber teams and will not affect their seeding in the tournament. The Aggies however, lost their only Quad 1 game (Boise State ranked 25), and have lost 2 games they should have won in Quad 4. The divisions for the quadrants are:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.
Beginning in 2020, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin were all dropped from the NET ranking. Therefore, only team value and team value index are used to ranked teams. So, the only factors which go into the rankings are efficiency (offensive points per possession minus opponents points per possession), strength of opponents played, location of game, wins and losses, and who won the game.
Good time to break down the OOC schedule:
Pre Maui
Eastern Washington
Northern Colorado
CSU Fullerton
Harvard
Post Maui
Pacific
Colorado State
South Dakota State
Bellamie
Who knows what kind of team EWU will have but the same thing could be said for us. I will not be surprised if this ends up being a challenging game. UNC is definitely going to challenge us and then that is followed up by two lightweights in Fullerton and Harvard. The last two would be good to fix some early issues before going to the Maui Tournament.
I'm not expecting much out of the Maui Tournament but it's just a good way to see where CU's players measure up before B12 play and then take on WCC weakling Pacific to iron out some issues before the CSU and SDSU games. The good news is that the CSU and SDSU games are separated by about a week before closing out with a softie before beginning B12 play.
I'm guessing that at least seven of those eight games will be on ESPN+ with CSU being the exception.
I'm hoping for 4-0 Pre Maui and 3-1 Post Maui.
Pre Maui
Eastern Washington
Northern Colorado
CSU Fullerton
Harvard
Post Maui
Pacific
Colorado State
South Dakota State
Bellamie
Who knows what kind of team EWU will have but the same thing could be said for us. I will not be surprised if this ends up being a challenging game. UNC is definitely going to challenge us and then that is followed up by two lightweights in Fullerton and Harvard. The last two would be good to fix some early issues before going to the Maui Tournament.
I'm not expecting much out of the Maui Tournament but it's just a good way to see where CU's players measure up before B12 play and then take on WCC weakling Pacific to iron out some issues before the CSU and SDSU games. The good news is that the CSU and SDSU games are separated by about a week before closing out with a softie before beginning B12 play.
I'm guessing that at least seven of those eight games will be on ESPN+ with CSU being the exception.
I'm hoping for 4-0 Pre Maui and 3-1 Post Maui.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I'm hoping for at least 1 win in Maui. I think that's doable.
Chaminade no longer plays in the upper bracket. We'll be 0fer in Hawaii. Book it.
3-1 and 3-1 would be fantastic. This team lost its top 6 players. Even if we replaced them with similar talent (which we aren't) it's going to take some time to gel which might lead to a stumble or two.
And there's almost always an Omar Strong game that causes heartburn.
We need to go 8-0 in those
Yes there are some holes to be filled but you could say that for most teams across the country. Given what ahoelsken said about EWU, I'd be pissed if the Buffs stumble against EWU. So based on what you are saying, we would stumble against UNC in that case.
That is the goal...a win in Maui.
That would be great.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
What does CSU have coming back? Would have to think they are somewhat down.
With all of that inexperience and lack of a top tier talent as a go to scorer... 6-2 would be good for that roster. 2-6 could be a possibility, there are some sneaky tough games: Harvard, Fullerton, Pacific, South Dakota State, Northern Colorado, Lambs
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
All eight of those games are in Boulder, and you seriously think we could lose 6 of them?
Did you give our resident Debbie Downer Snow your PW or something?
We have no point guard.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This
We have rules, man. You can't just bring his name up.
I just remember at one point finally accepting what was going on and laughing as every off balance 3 he shot went in.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
**** you.
He only shot 9 of 21 from 3?!? My God, in my head it was something like 43 for 29 or whatever.
I would also like to throw into the mix the entire St. Bonnies 2022 NIT team who bodied us so badly even I felt it in the stands.