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24-25 MBB Team

Da Lama said:
Just stop.
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After I posted my predictions before you posted yours, it's funny that your recent predictions are almost the same as my predictions. You might as well stop too but since you are not stopping, why should I?

In today's portal & NIL world, would losing starters sting as much as it used to in the pre-portal & NIL world? Probably not.

Derrick White was nowhere to be found near the kind of awards that Elijah Malone has done especially the award that goes to the best D3, D2, and NAIA player in the WHOLE COUNTRY. That is not a dig at White by any means. I'm sure Malone was the D2 player of the year as well and in that case, he's definitely better than a good number of D1 players out there. You don't see a 6'10" 280 pound basketball player in Boulder very often and you would have better luck finding that big and tall hairy creature roaming out in the wild. Malone played in 139 games over four years with at least 116 starts.

Elijah Malone - Men's Basketball - Grace College Athletics

Elijah Malone (50) Center - CAREER 2023-24 SENIOR - Cemented his status as one of the best players in school history with a record-breaking campaign … was selected
gclancers.com gclancers.com

Andrej Jakimovski has played in 120 games at Washington State. And we have Trevor Baskin, the D2 guy from Colorado Mesa, who has appeared in 93 games. He's 6'9" too.

That's over 300 games played in and over 250 career starts between three players. Yes two of them will have to adjust to a higher classification but they garnered some postseason honors especially Malone being the top non-D1 player in the country. Those two know how to get the job done relative to their competition and with that experience, they can figure out how to get it done at the Big 12 level.

Yes losing five starters and a sixth man would be of serious concern and result in a worse record for sure but we got Tad Boyle and at least half of those positions have been filled with three players through the transfer portal with a lot of playing experience. And why should you doubt Tad Boyle who just sent three players to the NBA via the draft this week? Surely there are a few other current CU players who are ready to step up to the challenge.

Over at the Big 12 Preview football thread that I created, you just laughed at the suggestion of doing the same thing for basketball. Maybe you ought to stop right now and work on that Big 12 basketball thread and present the hard numbers that back your talk I have seen from you all offseason long.

And back to the season prediction, there are at least six Big 12 games CU should win at home and then you have one at OSU on the road. That's seven wins minimum. There are four other road games that are winnable but if the Buffs can take half of those, that's NINE WINS IN CONFERENCE PLAY for a 9-11 record. And if we pull off an upset against Kansas or someone like that, that's a .500 record in our first year of Big 12 play.

Again, you were the one who were talking all season about how bad this upcoming season was going to be and that was before the conference schedule was released then you came up with similar predictions that I posted. Now just wait for the rest of the schedule and also the full schedule to see how it flows.
 
Bison said:
And that Maui tourney could better prepare CU for conference play so that makes me feel more confident of a .500 record or close to it in B12 play.
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The whole reason Tad said his CU job got tougher-but better-w/ joining BIG12 is strength of schedule & high number of Quad 1&2 games makes a big difference in getting to tourney. Yes, we have to win enough of those Q1&2s, & avoid bad loses. But the years of our Tourney Future being dependent on a few high SOS games are over. The road to the tourney has a multitude of paths for CU now-& every year! Finishing .500 in conference has to remain yearly goal; even in #1 conference in Country! I agree w/ Bison: Maui Invite couldn’t have come on a better year, as it should keep us w/ a Top-50 SOS. I appreciate all our posters views & predictions (except maybe Mr Pessimist Da Lama), but we gotta play the games now!

I will say I feel good about our chances to finish .500 in Big-12, Finish Conference 6-8 & get decent Tourney Seed (But I am Mr Optimist). 9 &10th best Big12 teams may be Bubble Teams in New World Order of Mega-Conferences? This would make us about Top-35 Team; which could happen, if Tad gets us back to Top-20 D? But I have as much evidence for that (NONE)- as the rest of the posters here have for their view-points & predictions! GO BUFFS! GoBuffs! Go🦬’s!
 
Luke said:
The whole reason Tad said his CU job got tougher-but better-w/ joining BIG12 is strength of schedule & high number of Quad 1&2 games makes a big difference in getting to tourney. Yes, we have to win enough of those Q1&2s, & avoid bad loses. But the years of our Tourney Future being dependent on a few high SOS games are over. The road to the tourney has a multitude of paths for CU now-& every year! Finishing .500 in conference has to remain yearly goal; even in #1 conference in Country! I agree w/ Bison: Maui Invite couldn’t have come on a better year, as it should keep us w/ a Top-50 SOS. I appreciate all our posters views & predictions (except maybe Mr Pessimist Da Lama), but we gotta play the games now!

I will say I feel good about our chances to finish .500 in Big-12, Finish Conference 6-8 & get decent Tourney Seed (But I am Mr Optimist). 9 &10th best Big12 teams may be Bubble Teams in New World Order of Mega-Conferences? This would make us about Top-35 Team; which could happen, if Tad gets us back to Top-20 D? But I have as much evidence for that (NONE)- as the rest of the posters here have for their view-points & predictions! GO BUFFS! GoBuffs! Go🦬’s!
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CU is definitely not the only Big 12 team affected by the portal and the way we predict how a team can do the following season isn't the same as it used to be so all we can do is watch the games and debate here.

I would not be anywhere near as optimistic as I am right now if we didn't get Elijah Malone from the NAIA ranks. We needed a big body and with big bodied players like Battey and Lampkin, we have done good. No doubt Lampkin has gave Tad intel about the Big 12 after three seasons at TCU. And we have Danny Manning as a new assistant coach with all that Big 12 experience.

As for the Maui invite, those experienced transfers would just need a few hard bumps & elbows in the face to realize they are not in D2 and NAIA anymore and get in gear. I would have hated a soft OOC schedule before getting punched in the face when it really counts in the B12.

We are in much better shape than before we left for the Pac 12. The teams from the Keg used to have to either practice at Balch or a local high school if the floor was being used by one team. Now we have the facilities that we need to have competitive teams and it's just a matter of the coaches getting the right players into the building. Again, three Buff players to the NBA via the Draft...trust in Tad!
 
Re: Players transferring up divisions or into better conferences

I think stories like Dalton Knecht's (a player going from JUCO/DII/Obscure mid major to impact player in a major conference) are going to become the norm. We saw it ourselves with D. White (so dumb he had to sit out a year /edit/ because of stupid transfer rules).

There have always been gifted players in lower divisions and the gap has been shrinking. I'm going into next season with low expectations which makes it all the more fun to see if Malone or Baskin can make that jump to be impact players right away.
 
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Chautauqua said:
Re: Players transferring up divisions or into better conferences

I think stories like Dalton Knecht's (a player going from JUCO/DII/Obscure mid major to impact player in a major conference) are going to become the norm. We saw it ourselves with D. White (so dumb he had to sit out a year).

There have always been gifted players in lower divisions and the gap has been shrinking. I'm going into next season with low expectations which makes it all the more fun to see if Malone or Baskin can make that jump to be impact players right away.
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Took me a minute to figure out that you were not insulting Derrick White's intelligence.
 
Darth Snow said:
Wow. They definitely were hassling me more than usual before I renewed but that's bad news. P12 teams may have been more attractive to the season ticket holder fanbase
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This team is going to lose a lot of games and the fans know it. Hard to overcome this and price increase.
 
Bison said:
A quick look at last year's Big 12 standings and the schedule:

CU should beat WVU, UCF, TCU, ASU, Cincy, and BYU at home.
CU should beat OSU on the road..new coaching staff and complete roster overhaul for the Cowboys.
CU could maybe beat ASU, UCF, Utah, and TCU on the road.
CU could maybe stun Kansas at home.

Minimum of seven B12 wins and maximum of 12 B12 wins.

We won't beat Baylor & Houston at home and Arizona, TT, ISU, and KSU on the road.
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I like Bison’s take, but I still look at match-ups more than anything else. Big questions:

1) Malone should win most of his match-ups, but teams w/ elite size on 2nd Unit may be our bane: KU, Iowa St, Houston, ASU?
-Houston w/ more elite length (Tuggler off bench) & elite chaotic/pressing D style.
-Iowa St’s No-Middle D actual surpassed Houston’s efficiency last year. Only team w/ 2 guys at 250 pounds each: ex-Wazzu Dishon Jackson & huge JT Rock.
-Hurley only has 1 True-4, tends to go small, & doesn’t get the best out of his talent-so like our chances vs. Phillips/Quaintance.

2) Most of Big12 have tough, d-oriented, elite guard play- so 2-Way abilities of Julian, Javon, RJ, & Felix (maybe Courtney & Drew Crawford earn minutes defending long guards & wings too?) may be biggest indicator of 7 wins (Top-10 Big12 finish squeaks into tourney?) vs. 12 wins (2 games above .500 in conference may finish 5-8 range?) Particularly elite guard corps: Obviously KU, Arizona, Baylor, & Houston; but K-State, TCU, & UCF deep & talented guards too. Other teams, feel good vs!

3) BigWings & Forwards may be area that surprises people the most & may give us biggest advantage? Yes, Baskin & Jaki have to show-out on O & D. But Rancik poised to get enough minutes to show his elite shooting, passing & sneaky athleticism (for dunks & secondary rim-protection) against mediocre back-up 4s. Obviously, improvement from Dak at back-up 5 & Diop back-up 3 (guessing he gets more minutes at 3 vs 4, if Rancik can hold his own at 4?) will be huge! Felix more ready for some small-ball 3 vs Crawford’s more natural fit there? Teams we should have size & skill advantage against second team 3s & 4s: OSU, ASU, WV, UCF, TCU, BYU even Cinci, K-State, Texas Tech, & Utah (Utes have some size there, but maybe not as much skill?). KU, Arizona, & Houston only teams that scare me with their back-up F’s. Most other team’s F’s are 6’7-6’8 220-230 range-at most. Jaki & Malone may play the most minutes on team?

My Predictions we finish .500 in Big12, gets us about Top-7, & 8-10 seed in tournament?
-Home: We beat ASU, BYU, Cinci, TCU, UCF (WV upsets us, as DeVries best big wing we see outside of KU’s Storr & Baylor’s Freshman Edgecombe & Asemota?) (Iowa St & KU seem more likely upsets than Baylor or Houston; but Baylor’s Elite 5-Out O is fun!).
-Away: We beat Utah, K-State, OSU, TCU, & UCF (TCU & Jamie Dixon’s outscore them w/ 4-Guard line-ups strategy easier to sweep. UCF’s Frosh 7’er Thiam reclassified-so young & only 200 pounds- but not an automatic advantage to Malone/Dak there. Plus Mikey Williams adds to UCF’s already deep guards. And UCF’s Coach Johnny Dawkins surprised people w/ his Dean Smith-influenced D last year.).
1720311526127.jpeg
 
I’m glad they’re going to rotate the 5 teams we play twice each year, but they seem to be indicating they’ll keep 2 close teams each year. Hope we get KU & Iowa St more years than we get-maybe-Utah & Baylor? Feels like Iowa St & KU we’ll continue to have a chance to upset more often & build rivalry with? We could also build some rivalry with K-State, Texas Tech & even UCF- just based on them being teams we’re most likely to fight-out for second tier with? I know some people think BYU & Cinci will be Second Tier too (but they feel like programs more likely to be fighting for 9-10 finishes & still in tourney?). But I like CU’s chances to be fighting for a Top 6-8 Big12 Finish each year w/ K-State, Texas Tech & UCF?

PS: My note that KU & Iowa St (at home this year) feel like more likely upsets than Baylor or Houston (at home this year also) would push to 12 wins (& 2 wins over .500 this year)- like Bison noted could be CU’s ceiling this year? Beating KU & Iowa St at home feels more likely than getting 2 more on road: 2nd win against ASU & at Texas Tech (1 of toughest & loudest places to play)? I guess that only shows how hard it can be to finish above .500 in toughest conference in US!?
 
Luke said:
I like Bison’s take, but I still look at match-ups more than anything else. Big questions:

1) Malone should win most of his match-ups, but teams w/ elite size on 2nd Unit may be our bane: KU, Iowa St, Houston, ASU?
-Houston w/ more elite length (Tuggler off bench) & elite chaotic/pressing D style.
-Iowa St’s No-Middle D actual surpassed Houston’s efficiency last year. Only team w/ 2 guys at 250 pounds each: ex-Wazzu Dishon Jackson & huge JT Rock.
-Hurley only has 1 True-4, tends to go small, & doesn’t get the best out of his talent-so like our chances vs. Phillips/Quaintance.

2) Most of Big12 have tough, d-oriented, elite guard play- so 2-Way abilities of Julian, Javon, RJ, & Felix (maybe Courtney & Drew Crawford earn minutes defending long guards & wings too?) may be biggest indicator of 7 wins (Top-10 Big12 finish squeaks into tourney?) vs. 12 wins (2 games above .500 in conference may finish 5-8 range?) Particularly elite guard corps: Obviously KU, Arizona, Baylor, & Houston; but K-State, TCU, & UCF deep & talented guards too. Other teams, feel good vs!

3) BigWings & Forwards may be area that surprises people the most & may give us biggest advantage? Yes, Baskin & Jaki have to show-out on O & D. But Rancik poised to get enough minutes to show his elite shooting, passing & sneaky athleticism (for dunks & secondary rim-protection) against mediocre back-up 4s. Obviously, improvement from Dak at back-up 5 & Diop back-up 3 (guessing he gets more minutes at 3 vs 4, if Rancik can hold his own at 4?) will be huge! Felix more ready for some small-ball 3 vs Crawford’s more natural fit there? Teams we should have size & skill advantage against second team 3s & 4s: OSU, ASU, WV, UCF, TCU, BYU even Cinci, K-State, Texas Tech, & Utah (Utes have some size there, but maybe not as much skill?). KU, Arizona, & Houston only teams that scare me with their back-up F’s. Most other team’s F’s are 6’7-6’8 220-230 range-at most. Jaki & Malone may play the most minutes on team?

My Predictions we finish .500 in Big12, gets us about Top-7, & 8-10 seed in tournament?
-Home: We beat ASU, BYU, Cinci, TCU, UCF (WV upsets us, as DeVries best big wing we see outside of KU’s Storr & Baylor’s Freshman Edgecombe & Asemota?) (Iowa St & KU seem more likely upsets than Baylor or Houston; but Baylor’s Elite 5-Out O is fun!).
-Away: We beat Utah, K-State, OSU, TCU, & UCF (TCU & Jamie Dixon’s outscore them w/ 4-Guard line-ups strategy easier to sweep. UCF’s Frosh 7’er Thiam reclassified-so young & only 200 pounds- but not an automatic advantage to Malone/Dak there. Plus Mikey Williams adds to UCF’s already deep guards. And UCF’s Coach Johnny Dawkins surprised people w/ his Dean Smith-influenced D last year.).
View attachment 73459
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Michael Jordan Reaction GIF
 
RumblinBuff said:
We are not winning 5 road league games next year, period, full stop.
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That would be far Tad's best coaching just b if that happens...or Baskin is next year's Dalton Knecht and one of the freshman turns out to be a surefire NBA prospect, and Dak adds 30 lbs and takes a huge jump.
 
RumblinBuff said:
We are not winning 5 road league games next year, period, full stop.
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Agreed. The only Big 12 game on the road I feel that CU will win for sure is the one at Oklahoma State. The four road games (ASU, UU, UCF, and TCU) that I said CU could win...a split of that four would be great since with the expected six wins at home plus road win at OSU, that would get us to nine Big 12 wins (six home wins) which is one game below .500.
 
Bison said:
Agreed. The only Big 12 game on the road I feel that CU will win for sure is the one at Oklahoma State. The four road games (ASU, UU, UCF, and TCU) that I said CU could win...a split of that four would be great since with the expected six wins at home plus road win at OSU, that would get us to nine Big 12 wins (six home wins) which is one game below .500.
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Yes, it would be 1 of Tad’s best year coaching to finish 6-8 range 1st year back in Big12. With Big12’s w/ elite toughness, D, guard play, & big/strong wing play, what I’ll be watching for this 1st year:

1) Can CU’s young guards match up with elite guards of Big12? Heavy loads for upperclassmen Julian & Javon - Julian looks to have D & quarter-backing skills to run first team. Javon scores, but needs to prove it on D? Speed of K-State, UCF & ASU have advantage over CU? RJ proved he can D it up, but depth of TCU, ASU & UCF guards may be tough for him to run team against. Felix’s elite 3-ball helps out of the gate, but like Javon-D probably not up to snuff yet. Courtney & Crawford odd men out or earn some playing time defending long 3s?

2) Some of Big12 wings just too strong for CU’s Baskin & Crawford? Maybe Diop’s strength over Rancik may be our best hope?Baylor’s Ws Walter/Edgecombe/Asenota may be 1 if best in country? Texas Tech’s all-conference Darrion Williams 6’6-6’7- but a beast that Jaki may be only Buff strong enough against? TCU small but some skilled 3’s- with Frosh David Punch 6’7 220 also beastly! KU & ‘Zona also super-deep on wings, but with more skill than strength. So maybe Courtney & Crawford make impact vs those 2 teams & TCU? Interesting to see how BYU’s 5-Out O looks & how they use 6’8 PtG Igor Demin- maybe start him on wing? Most of the other tall, long wings-you’ld think we have some chance against w/ Baskin’s decent steals & blocks at lower-level? And hopefully Rancik showing he can guards 3s?

3) Big Wings aplenty from transfer portal in Big12, but lack of size, strength & toughness after Jaki goes to bench may be our biggest positional weakness? Again, Diop & Rancik need to at-least hold their own here? Iowa St’s Momcilovic @3 will be helped by improved depth of Bigs @4&5? Houston’s Tuggler 1-man wrecking crew w/ length for miles off-bench @ 4&5! WV’s DeVries, K-State’s Acho, BYU’s Mag, TX Tech’s Kerwin Walton, ‘Zona’s Dell’Orso & Townsend only 6’6 but should both be productive transfers, & even Utah’s depth of long wings all tough match-ups for CU? But Tad's ‘25 recruits Odih & Rencher give me hope for year 2?

4) Gotta believe Malone wins his match-ups more games than not, or I will be climbing on bandwagon that there’s no-way CU gets close to .500 in conference play!? KU front line elite w/ Dickinson/Bidunga/Clemence/KJ Adams! Houston’s Big3 similarly dominate! Iowa St’s No-Middle D improves w/ Dishon Jackson/Rock/Jefferson/ Chatfield. Only other teams w/ 2nd elite big that Dak will need to seriously wrestle with are: ASU’s Phillips & Quaintance; Zona’s Krevas & Veesaar; Cinci’s Bandaogo/Mitchel/Paige; TCU’s Udeh & Diallo; UCF’s Jocius & Thiam? OK, counting 8 of 16 teams have depth advantage at 5 versus CU does seem more daunting when I write it out!!! Maybe:
4.1) Tad finds 2nd Strong Big w/ last Scholarship, & Dak gets to Redshirt to gain weight? Yea, probably not!
4.2) 6’10 Walk-On Gerhardt wins last scholarship & playing-time over 6’7 Walk-On Wing Carrington? Even less likely!?

5) Conclusion: We can stay in Top-30 Offensive range? But need to return to Top-20 D & show that Big12 transition D will not limit effectiveness of our Mile-high pace & elite conditioning!? Is it too much to hope for that Small Ball 5-Out O & 1 Big wins?
 
Luke said:
Yes, it would be 1 of Tad’s best year coaching to finish 6-8 range 1st year back in Big12. With Big12’s w/ elite toughness, D, guard play, & big/strong wing play, what I’ll be watching for this 1st year:

1) Can CU’s young guards match up with elite guards of Big12? Heavy loads for upperclassmen Julian & Javon - Julian looks to have D & quarter-backing skills to run first team. Javon scores, but needs to prove it on D? Speed of K-State, UCF & ASU have advantage over CU? RJ proved he can D it up, but depth of TCU, ASU & UCF guards may be tough for him to run team against. Felix’s elite 3-ball helps out of the gate, but like Javon-D probably not up to snuff yet. Courtney & Crawford odd men out or earn some playing time defending long 3s?

2) Some of Big12 wings just too strong for CU’s Baskin & Crawford? Maybe Diop’s strength over Rancik may be our best hope?Baylor’s Ws Walter/Edgecombe/Asenota may be 1 if best in country? Texas Tech’s all-conference Darrion Williams 6’6-6’7- but a beast that Jaki may be only Buff strong enough against? TCU small but some skilled 3’s- with Frosh David Punch 6’7 220 also beastly! KU & ‘Zona also super-deep on wings, but with more skill than strength. So maybe Courtney & Crawford make impact vs those 2 teams & TCU? Interesting to see how BYU’s 5-Out O looks & how they use 6’8 PtG Igor Demin- maybe start him on wing? Most of the other tall, long wings-you’ld think we have some chance against w/ Baskin’s decent steals & blocks at lower-level? And hopefully Rancik showing he can guards 3s?

3) Big Wings aplenty from transfer portal in Big12, but lack of size, strength & toughness after Jaki goes to bench may be our biggest positional weakness? Again, Diop & Rancik need to at-least hold their own here? Iowa St’s Momcilovic @3 will be helped by improved depth of Bigs @4&5? Houston’s Tuggler 1-man wrecking crew w/ length for miles off-bench @ 4&5! WV’s DeVries, K-State’s Acho, BYU’s Mag, TX Tech’s Kerwin Walton, ‘Zona’s Dell’Orso & Townsend only 6’6 but should both be productive transfers, & even Utah’s depth of long wings all tough match-ups for CU? But Tad's ‘25 recruits Odih & Rencher give me hope for year 2?

4) Gotta believe Malone wins his match-ups more games than not, or I will be climbing on bandwagon that there’s no-way CU gets close to .500 in conference play!? KU front line elite w/ Dickinson/Bidunga/Clemence/KJ Adams! Houston’s Big3 similarly dominate! Iowa St’s No-Middle D improves w/ Dishon Jackson/Rock/Jefferson/ Chatfield. Only other teams w/ 2nd elite big that Dak will need to seriously wrestle with are: ASU’s Phillips & Quaintance; Zona’s Krevas & Veesaar; Cinci’s Bandaogo/Mitchel/Paige; TCU’s Udeh & Diallo; UCF’s Jocius & Thiam? OK, counting 8 of 16 teams have depth advantage at 5 versus CU does seem more daunting when I write it out!!! Maybe:
4.1) Tad finds 2nd Strong Big w/ last Scholarship, & Dak gets to Redshirt to gain weight? Yea, probably not!
4.2) 6’10 Walk-On Gerhardt wins last scholarship & playing-time over 6’7 Walk-On Wing Carrington? Even less likely!?

5) Conclusion: We can stay in Top-30 Offensive range? But need to return to Top-20 D & show that Big12 transition D will not limit effectiveness of our Mile-high pace & elite conditioning!? Is it too much to hope for that Small Ball 5-Out O & 1 Big wins?
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Getting Malone through the portal was huge...imagine trying to stop a 280 pound basketball player driving to the net. Jokic is listed at 284 himself. If we can get one more big player, that would be great.

Also I hope the Fs and Cs are hitting the weight room hard this offseason. Other than Malone, I think they could stand to put about 10-15 more pounds on each. If Dak is still under 200, he needs to redshirt this year.
 
What I don’t understand is that, supposedly, our last two recruiting classes were top 20 yet the opinions here are that we will suck. And I get that the Big VII is loaded.
 
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