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Bunker mode
- Thread starter sackman
- Start date
2
Yes.
I don't like the Mac vs Mac2 comparisons, but just in Mac2's defense, he doesn't have early-80s Iowa St and K State to rely on to avoid 0 fer conference seasons.
The competition level in the Pac-12 South is something that is working so ****ing hard against us.
The competition level in the Pac-12 South is something that is working so ****ing hard against us.
Just caught the tail end of Whitely interviewing Bobby P. He was pretty insightful and pretty level headed. He ended by saying that he does not see a coaching change as being eminent and that making a change right now would be "ignorant." In his opinion, this team is very close to turning things around. FWIW.
maybe
Are you sure about that? I've seen some things that make me think so, including putting away two teams this year handily that they should have, but the overall results give me pause.
- Every other CU HC, combined, has 0 winless conference seasons (this includes Hawk and Embree). MM has 1 already, and the numbers predict he's headed for another.
- Hawkins' overall winning pct.at CU was 0.328 (19-39). Embree's was 0.160 (4-21). If MM goes winless again, he'd be 0.243 (9-28). The difference is that 3 of MMs wins were against FCS, whereas Embree had 0 and Hawk had 1. Without FCS wins, MM would average the same number of wins/season as Embree, and almost half as many as Hawk
- Hawk had 3 wins against top 25 teams. MM has yet to keep 3 top 25 teams within 2 scores (lost by 14 to ASU last year, and by 3 to UCLA last year).
- MM has pulled in, on average, the 67th rated recruiting class on Rivals. Embree averaged 56th, and Hawk had the #35th rated class on average.
Damn, when I started this post I was kind of on the "Give MM more time" bandwagon (or what's left of it). But now I'm pretty sure I'm in favor of getting rid of him if he can't pull out at least 2 conference wins.
BlackNGold
Club Member
Why is Tumpkin an extraordinary hire - not saying he is a bad hire I just think some of the hyperbole on these boards are not justified. Leavitt was a great hire but he did not have many people knocking on his door.
SuperiorBuff
Well-Known Member
Everything I read indicates that he is tearing up the recruiting trail. Relatively speaking, so to say.
BorrachoBuff
Well-Known Member
There is NOTHING extraordinary about anything surrounding our program. In fact, we fall far short of just ordinary
You don't think it's extraordinary that we have so few conference wins?There is NOTHING extraordinary about anything surrounding our program. In fact, we fall far short of just ordinary
Yes, you might be right. Hawkins knew the craft. Got worse on a year over year basis. And then knew how to manipulate his bosses into an extension. Then he got fired.
Wait, you are not right. Embree knew very little about being a HC. Mis steped right out of the gate with his hires. Called a QB sneak on a first and ten. .... shall I go on?
Every other CU head coach combined has been fired or quit. The only reality we have is the one that exists today. If we get rid of Mike Mac today, and there are certainly ADs that would, we still face a very poor chance that our next hire will be any better.
My point is this: Waiting for the man on the white horse to come save us (the Napoleon effect) is probably a bad idea because the success rate is so poor.
Look at this study...
…we use matching techniques to compare the performance of football programs that replaced their head coach to those where the coach was retained. The analysis has two major innovations over existing literature. First, we consider how entry conditions moderate the effects of coaching replacements. Second, we examine team performance for several years following the replacement to assess its effects.
We find that for particularly poorly performing teams, coach replacements have little effect on team performance as measured against comparable teams that did not replace their coach. However, for teams with middling records—that is, teams where entry conditions for a new coach appear to be more favorable—replacing the head coach appears to result in worse performance over subsequent years than comparable teams who retained their coach.
http://freakonomics.com/2012/12/21/is-changing-the-coach-really-the-answer/
We find that for particularly poorly performing teams, coach replacements have little effect on team performance as measured against comparable teams that did not replace their coach. However, for teams with middling records—that is, teams where entry conditions for a new coach appear to be more favorable—replacing the head coach appears to result in worse performance over subsequent years than comparable teams who retained their coach.
http://freakonomics.com/2012/12/21/is-changing-the-coach-really-the-answer/
One of the people who conducted that research works at CU.
The truth is that schools will likely get a favorable ROI when they put effort into supporting their athletics. Money, facilities, admissions all go a long way towards the success of the coach and the team.
I will concede that there is risk either way- risk in hiring a new staff, and risk in keeping MM. If the Buffs outperform what the numbers say should happen- that is, if he gets two conference wins, I will be on board with another year as I believe that you are right- the risk in changing staffs would be greater than the risk of standing still.
However, as to the bolded above, I think you could go on quite a bit before I'd get on board with either Embree or Hawkins being clearly inferior to MM. The facts(as I gave above) show otherwise. The evidence you've posted is anectdotal.
One could argue that, like Hawk, MM knows the craft. You could also argue that, like Hawk, MM has gotten worse this year over last year and even his first year (the numbers support it- in 2013 Colorado finished 99th in S&P+ and improved to 71st last year. This year, they are 116th).
Like Embree, MM "misstepped out the gate with his hires." He even admitted as much by replacing two guys last offseason and will likely replace more this offseason if he gets the chance. Whereas Embree + Staff called a quarterback sneak on 1st and 10 ONCE, MM + staff have had repeated and egregious clock management errors at the end of halfs and at the end of games that have directly resulted in losses.
I hate being in the position to vilify MM and his staff, but to this point they haven't shown themselves to be superior to the last two staffs.
BlackNGold
Club Member
I do get really tired of the "Called a QB sneak on a first and ten" as some sort of validation to hate Embree. For some reason Jon Embree never got a pass from Buff fans but Mike MacIntyre gets a continual pass in many corners. A lot of coaches make mistakes. The refs called the play short of the 1st down initially and then changed it to 1st down after the spot - the offense ran up to the line and ran the sneak thinking it was 4th down. A mistake - yes - a defining moment -no. I think the screwup by MacIntyre on clock management is much worse because it happens over and over again. In the Hawaii game they have 3rd and short and CU runs up to LOS with Sefo under center - UH is in a 3 man front, instead of running the QB sneak they look over to the sideline and wait, then run up to the line and wait. Finally they call a timeout. After the timeout they run the QB sneak...some think we lost that game because we ran out of time. So when you want to dump on Embree be balanced.
I look at the PAC12 coaches and I would rank MacIntyre at the bottom - recruiting has been bad, the team does not seem overly well prepared for their opponents, in game adjustments are poor. I think we could find a coach that would at least be in the top 2/3s of the conference - that is not a high bar. Keeping someone who is not getting the job done because you are afraid is ridiculous. There are plenty of Coordinators out there who would jump at a P5 Job especially with new facilities and a good AD support. The dynamic when Bohn was here does not exist today so people have to quit using it as an excuse.
Deleted member 807
Guest
There is NOTHING extraordinary about anything surrounding our program. In fact, we fall far short of just ordinary
CU provides an extraordinary case study on how to squander a Natty and descend to the depths of futility.
Baylor and TCU and Oregon and ASU run laps around us while we essentially pick lent out of our collective navels.
Hire a gotdamn P5 coach who can recruit to Boulder and win some games right away.
BlackNGold
Club Member
And that sums it up quite nicely.
Pointing to Embree's QB sneak is simply calling out the utter and complete ineptitude of that staff. Maybe there is selective memory around here; the Embree era was rock bottom. It was some of the worst CFB I have ever seen and maybe in the modern era and I happened to be a student during the Fairbanks years. We are LIGHT YEARS ahead of the Embree debacle, sure it's still frustrating to be a Buff fan and MM has made his share of mistakes. It's your business if you want to rush to the defense of Embree, but he might have been the worst CFB coach in the past 25 years
Umm, I don't think CU is the Lone Ranger here. Texas and OU, for instance, plunged themselves into the depths of despair as well and I'd argue that CU does not have quite the tradition they do. There are more examples as well.
BlackNGold
Club Member
That part of your overly emotional post is just not true. We went 0-9 in conference last year. Not defending Embree but pointing out that play is a cheap shot that is not relevant and really did not effect the outcome of the game.
Again, I'm not so sure. Sure, MM has beat up on some weak sisters in OOC, but that game on Saturday night looked an awful lot like 2012.
Deleted member 807
Guest
When was the last time the land thieves and uterus were ranked? When was the last time either program missed a bowl game?
UT and OU do not go O-fer in conference. They do not plummit to the point of losing to Montana State and Sacramento. CU fans would be extatic with the mild level of suck suffered by those two. Depth of despair my ass.
We hit there during the scandal and Gary saying that Katie was a horrible kicker. Took a few years for the damage to fully infest the whole body. We haven't left ICU since.
Look what UTAH did. There are plenty of great assistants, and they don't have to be big name guys. Tumpkin for example was a solid upgrade.
Do you remember 2012? We were out of games by the first quarter and the worst part was there was nothing we could do to change that. At ASU, we made mistakes and it was still 24-10 at halftime.
On Saturday, it was 24-10 at half, but with ASU getting the ball after half.
Yes, I remember 2012, although I've tried to forget:
In 2012, it was 20-17 ASU at the half.
We also trailed by 2 scores or fewer against UCLA (21-7), Arizona (28-17), Washington (7-0), WSU (17-7; a game the Buffs actually won!), and Utah (17-14). In fact, that Arizona game saw CU leading after the first quarter!
The only conference games we were out of after the 1st quarter in 2012 were #10 USC (19-3) and #4 Oregon (28-0).
in 2015 we haven't even played a ranked team yet. I sincerely hope MM and crew pull out a few wins, but the schedule gets tougher from here on out and I'm not committed to the idea that CU in 2015 is any better than CU in 2012.
So hold on you don't see a difference between this team and a team that lost to Sac St., a 4-win CSU team and was losing to Fresno 35-0 at the end of the first? I was at that ASU game and it was pure luck we were even close and they rattled off 31 straight points after that.
Bufffan68
Club Member
Not sure how you see that. We are much more ready to compete athletically with the PAC12 than in 2012 and if we don't spot them, what, 17 points? with turnovers etc, it's a closer game. We look much more like last year's team...shooting ourselves in the foot. I will say our OL has taken a dramatic step backward..their at Embree-era level of play.