BuffLuke80
Well-Known Member
Ok, I don't see how Cincy gets in without teams in front of them stepping on their cock. Maybe, this will be the year, who knows?
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CFB Playoff.
- Thread starter BuffLuke80
- Start date
Thoughts on the initial rankings:
- The committee has alot of love for the B1G
- I initally thought Cincy got disrespected at #6 (with a road win over the #10 team) but did they? After all, they are ranked ahead of 2 undefeated P5 teams. Having said that....
- OU has been unimpressive but #8? I thought they'd be 5 at the lowest
- I'm sure people are upset about Bama at #2 but that doesn't matter because they're clearly out if they lose another game and are clearly in by winning out. So it's pretty simple for Alabama.
Bottom line, there's a common theme between this committee and the NCAAB selection committee in that the Power conferences are getting the majority of the respect. Case in point, there's 5 G5 teams ranked in the AP that the CFB committe doesn't have ranked.
- The committee has alot of love for the B1G
- I initally thought Cincy got disrespected at #6 (with a road win over the #10 team) but did they? After all, they are ranked ahead of 2 undefeated P5 teams. Having said that....
- OU has been unimpressive but #8? I thought they'd be 5 at the lowest
- I'm sure people are upset about Bama at #2 but that doesn't matter because they're clearly out if they lose another game and are clearly in by winning out. So it's pretty simple for Alabama.
Bottom line, there's a common theme between this committee and the NCAAB selection committee in that the Power conferences are getting the majority of the respect. Case in point, there's 5 G5 teams ranked in the AP that the CFB committe doesn't have ranked.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
Are you arguing they aren’t the second best team in the country?
I am arguing they’re ranked on their body of work over the last ten years and hence given the benefit of the doubt and not their body of work this season like others are.
And if you extend the playoff their margin of error gets even bigger and you further cement the status of some teams.
And sure you can make a good case for MSU or someone else at #2 but as I mentioned above this ranking doesn't mean a whole lot with regard to Alabama. Whether they were #2 or #5/6 they'll either play themselves in or out. These initial rankings have far more meaning for teams like Cincy, Oregon and OU. Although I think OU is 100% in if they go undefeated.
If Cincinnati can’t get in, the G5 conferences need to create their own playoff system and move on.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
I think they are the second best team in the country this year and would be favored over all except UGA at the point.
Their fate is simple. Win out and they are in. Lose and they are out.
At this point there is no defensible, unifying criteria to rank 2-7. It will work out in the end, Bama included.
I like that this many teams are in contention.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
I see Bama at 2/3 in most of the quantitative power rankings as well. I have no problem with them at 2. And I’d have no problem with them at 4. Or 3.
If these initial rankings are any indication then Cincy will need help to get in given their schedule the rest of the way offers them no chance for any more impressive wins.
SEC Champ - in
B1G Champ - in
Oregon wins out - in
OU wins out - in
Plus there's these variables:
- If Bama wins out then both UGA and Bama are in, therefore taking away a spot from the above
- It's not out of the question that a 1-loss Baylor/Okie State could jump Cincy
- MSU wins out and Michigan also wins out, beating tOSU impressively. 2 B1G teams get in??
- Does Wake jump Cincy if the Deacs win out? I'm not sure they would given Wake's weak schedule
If Alabama loses to Georgia in the SECCG, would that change your stance that Alabama is the second best team in the country?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Early observations on the rankings-
1) Michigan State at Ohio State's a playoff elimination game. The loser is out. I don't think MSU's body of work is good enough to get them in if they lose.
2) I said it after Alabama lost in College Station, and I'll say it again. They control their own destiny, and that's how it should be.
3) Wake is at 9? They haven't played a ranked team all year-and their OOC includes Old Dominion (G5 who took last year off), Norfolk State (FCS), and Army (who somehow put up 56 on them). Can't jump Cincy.
1) Michigan State at Ohio State's a playoff elimination game. The loser is out. I don't think MSU's body of work is good enough to get them in if they lose.
2) I said it after Alabama lost in College Station, and I'll say it again. They control their own destiny, and that's how it should be.
3) Wake is at 9? They haven't played a ranked team all year-and their OOC includes Old Dominion (G5 who took last year off), Norfolk State (FCS), and Army (who somehow put up 56 on them). Can't jump Cincy.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
Yes, unless loss on last second play or OT situation. Also depends on what happens with other teams.
Kuratz
Well-Known Member
The only time two teams from the same conference got in was in 2017-18 when Alabama’s only loss was in the conference championship game to a one-loss Georgia. USC and Ohio St got left out as conference champs but both had 2 losses.
What happens if you’re looking at 4 conference champions each with one loss or less, say Alabama, Ohio St, Oregon, and Oklahoma (not even potentially counting Wake), and a one-loss Georgia? There is no precedent to giving the nod to a non-P5 champ over a P5 champ if they have the same number of losses. Not to say it wouldn’t happen but in that scenario to take one loss Bama, Georgia, Ohio St and Oregon over a one-loss OU AND potentially another 0-1 loss ACC champ just doesn’t seem right, even if we all know Georgia and Bama are the two best teams. Could get interesting!
What happens if you’re looking at 4 conference champions each with one loss or less, say Alabama, Ohio St, Oregon, and Oklahoma (not even potentially counting Wake), and a one-loss Georgia? There is no precedent to giving the nod to a non-P5 champ over a P5 champ if they have the same number of losses. Not to say it wouldn’t happen but in that scenario to take one loss Bama, Georgia, Ohio St and Oregon over a one-loss OU AND potentially another 0-1 loss ACC champ just doesn’t seem right, even if we all know Georgia and Bama are the two best teams. Could get interesting!
SerenityBuff
Well-Known Member
If Oregon wins out and OSU wins out, is Oregon still in over OSU? I'm not so sure. These rankings seem to suggest they value head-to-head. But these are humans deciding and not a set of tie breaking criteria like in the NFL and human beings tend to give in to their biases.
If you currently believe they are the second best team, why would losing to the best team in the country change your opinion about that?
SerenityBuff
Well-Known Member
If a two loss Bama team gets in, scrap the entire system.
A G5 will never get in with a four team playoff and I am ok with that.
You'll see it with an 8 team playoff. However, I don't think it'll be an every year thing and it is probably best they start their own league and move on. Money is still the driver here and G5 Schools will lose a ton of profit by going to their own league.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
Because it depends on how they lose and what other teams do. I already said that.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
No. H2H matters when all else close or equal. If tOSU wins out, they will have the better body of work, thus H2H won’t matter.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
Why? It’s entirely possible they could be among the four best with 2 losses.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
I seriously doubt an 8 team playoff. Seems like 12. Or 4.
The second best team losing to the best team still means they are the second best team, no?
hawg1
Well-Known Member
It. Depends.
Or 12. Either way
Not really. If Ohio State, Oregon and Oklahoma all win out, and Alabama loses to Georgia, do you really think that means Alabama is all of the sudden a worse team than those three?
How can your opinion of Alabama change, relative to the other contenders, when there’s no H2H evidence and Bama’s only loss since now is to the best team in the country?