Ooh…don’t put this on Reddit. You’d crash the server with hate-responses.
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CFP Race 2024
- Thread starter Robert Sorell
- Start date
12 team and 16 team conferences are wildly different with an 8 or 9 game conference schedule.
No divisions was ok for Pac12 because there was a ~81% chance that a tiebreaker would have H2H results to work with. In 16 teams that goes to just over 50%, but even a little less likely as the best records are partially because they missed each other on the schedule.
It's funny to think back - well before they decided on 12 teams, I always assumed the "correct" number of teams for a playoff was 8. Two reasons: (1) it makes for a nice, round 3 week playoff schedule, and (2) no more than 8 teams realistically has a chance of running the table. (Honestly, it's probably more like 5 teams max in any given year.)
Now some are saying 16 would be more balanced, more appealing. I say bring it on, especially for the attention it'll bring to the sport from people who only care about the NFL, of which there are millions. I still don't think there are more than 5 teams who could run the table in any given year; that's especially true if you run out the playoff to 3+ games needed to win. Depth (lack of) will show in such an extended format.
PS, this year I'm seeing only 3 who have a realistic shot: OR, GA, TX. Those three should beat any of the other 9 on any given day.
I feel like ND’s got a shot. But in the real world, their loss to NIU should exclude them.
66BUFF
FTW
Yep. They're going to try to convince us all that playing Vanderbilt is more challenging than playing Duke when we look at the resumes.
Bc they beat Bama..which means Vandy is good, not that Bama is meh.
Sounds like my cynical ass on any political discussion at Thanksgiving lol
The Big 12 is purely a victim of the preseason bull**** rankings. If Utah had the same resume as ASU or BYU, they’d be in. Same with Arizona, KU, KSU and OSU. Instead all the Big 12 teams that were actually good this year were projected in the bottom half of the conference.
Great point. Imagine if ASU, ISU, CU and BYU had all been ranked in the Top 25 to start the year. Like, swap those 4 with preseason #12 Utah, #18 Okie Lite, #21 Arizona and #22 Kansas. (You could keep KSU at #17 and it would be fine.) Not only would perception be much better but we'd all be ranked higher because of the way voters move teams up or down based on where they were ranked last week instead of based on their body of work to that point.
If the voters get it right from the beginning, those teams are absolutely going to be ranked higher than the ones who they got it wrong about at first and didn’t ranked. It actually creates a pretty major bias that affects the outcomes of the season.
I thought not releasing CFP rankings until mid-season was supposed to address this.
Are you suggesting that the CFP rankings still factor in the AP and coaches polls?
Of course they do. It’s human nature to have bias and when the media is pushing multiple polls in your face every week along with pumping the ranked vs ranked matchups each week, it’s impossible not to let those biases seep into the CFP rankings.
First CFP rankings were almost identical to that week's AP ranking, so I'm not sure what the purpose is other than to give a backroom mechanism to manipulate things.
2024 AP Poll College Football Rankings, Week 11 - ESPN
Find the complete NCAAF Week 11 rankings on ESPN. Includes the full votes and trend for the top 25 NCAAF teams.
So gross bama is getting credit for going 2 and 1 with who they playedFirst CFP rankings were almost identical to that week's AP ranking, so I'm not sure what the purpose is other than to give a backroom mechanism to manipulate things.
2024 AP Poll College Football Rankings, Week 11 - ESPN
Find the complete NCAAF Week 11 rankings on ESPN. Includes the full votes and trend for the top 25 NCAAF teams.www.espn.com
What? You think it's questionable that a team was ranked 11th, went 2-1 against the gauntlet of Mercer-Oklahoma-Auburn, and is still ranked 11th?
Absolutely, they do. They don't want to be seen as controversial and out of step with the general consensus- by Week 7 (or whenever the first CFP poll is), the AP and Coaches Poll are pretty much in sync, but have a lot of confirmation bias baked in from the pre-season polls.
On that note, you can dicker about some of the teams being as high up as they are (Clemson and Mizzou, for example, are probably overrated a bit where they are) but it is galling that UNLV and Syracuse (and, to an extent, Illinois) are ranked above the Buffs.
Massey and Sagarin lump them roughly together in the mid-to-low 40s (FPI also has Syracuse down there as well; UNLV is just outside the top 25 in that system); we know Syracuse and UNLV are roughly as good as one another, because they went to overtime when they played this season.
With an exception here or there, all three systems would have CU as a touchdown favorite over both those teams and Illinois on a neutral field.
I was told SOS was not really something the committee looks at. If so, why is 3 loss CU so far behind 3 loss Ole Miss, Alabama and Clemson? Why is CU behind Mizzou? Why are 2 loss ASU, ISU and BYU behind those 3 loss teams?
It’s 100% about the perception and bias from the beginning of the season.
It’s 100% about the perception and bias from the beginning of the season.
you were told fake news.
SOS is the second criteria listed (behind conference champs) for the CFP rankings.
link
other link
Anyone who believes there is a process other than CFP dedicating their sessions to crafting rebuttals and faux justifications to defend their desired outcomes is a complete rube
They exist to defend their predetermined decisions
It’s the College Football INVITATIONAL. No serious sports league with competitive equity uses this system
They exist to defend their predetermined decisions
It’s the College Football INVITATIONAL. No serious sports league with competitive equity uses this system
Funny how there is magically now 4 B1G and 4 SEC programs being included along with 1 G5, 1 ACC, 1 Big 12, and ND. This ratio/mix is exactly what they and the P2 wanted and we should all probably come to terms with the idea that this is how it's going to be going forward.
Edit: I think the P2 would like to get rid of the G5 inclusion, although I think the networks see value in it
I think that's an easy thing to believe for fans who feel their team was snubbed. but looking at the backgrounds of actual committee members, it's not obvious why someone would jump to the conclusion they are so biased. Flipping through the bios, less than half have a connection to a P2 school (and I'm defining "connection" as any mention of a P2 school in their bio, regardless of how short or whether that connection was athletic, academic or administrative).
I'm not saying they're not biased to their "desired outcomes", I'm just saying I haven't seen justification to make that leap yet.
link to committee
I would come to terms with that being the best it’ll get. CFP renegotiation after next season will see further degradation of competitive equity
Given the increased interest around the back half of games from more viewers, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s expanded to 16 to make more games matter as play-in
Prisoner’s dilemma prevents it, but ACC / B12 need to make bold moves in football and basketball alignment