CFP Race 2024

[Duff Man]

Looking at this weekend and running the games through my proprietary upset alert algorithm, there are a lot of higher ranked teams that are on upset alert this weekend. CU could make some big moves this weekend.

#1 Oregon - off
#5 IU @ #2 tOSU - upset potential = medium
KY @ #3 Texas - upset potential = nil
#4 PSU @ Minn. - upset potential = HIGH
#19 Army v. #6 ND - upset potential = low
#7 Bama v. Okla - upset potential = medium
WF @ #8 Miami - upset potential = nil
#9 Ole Miss @ UF - upset potential = HIGH
UMass @ #10 UGA - upset potential = nil
UTEP @ #11 Tenn - upset potential = nil
#12 BSU @ Wyo - upset potential = low to nil
#13 SMU @ UVA - upset potential = medium
#14 BYU @ #21 ASU - upset potential = OFF THE CHARTS HIGH
#15 aTm @ Auburn - upset potential = medium to low-high
#16 CU @ KU - upset potential = low

I would feel better if Auburn was going to College Station (seriously). The program has been pretty bad at home under Freeze.

EDIT: 1-7 at home against P4 opponents under Freeze. ****ing pathetic.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I saw that Austin is the furthest West that Kentucky has played a game… ever…

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

This. **** the SEC. Step up and start playing more conference games you snowflake **** bags

 

[BuffWarHog]

Assuming CU ends up being Big 12 champs:

Would you rather get the 4-seed with a bye and locked in for 2nd round at a bowl site or a 5-8 seed hosting a 1st round playoff game at Folsom?

I think I'd prefer the home playoff game, but don't have a strong preference either way.

I also think that if CU wins its next 3 games we'll end up in the top 8 (from 16 now).

In short, it's all good if CU takes care of its business.

Less (or maybe fewer) games would be beneficial. Also those games taking place during the school’s winter break probably aren’t going to help out with the home crowd at CU.

 

[BuffWarHog]

Conference	Team	AP Rank	CFP Rank	W	L	Con W	Con L	11/23	11/30	CCG	Best Win(s)	Losses	ESPN SOR
SEC	Texas	3	3	9	1	5	1	Kentucky	at Texas A&M	win and in	Vandy+3	Georgia-(15)	5
SEC	Alabama	7	7	8	2	4	2	at Oklahoma	Auburn	win and in???	Georgia+7,Mizzou+34,SCaro+2	atVandy(-5),atTenn(-7)	7
SEC	Ole Miss	8	9	8	2	4	2	at Florida	Miss State	need help	atSCaro+24,Georgia+18	Kentucky(-3),atLSU(-3)	12
SEC	Georgia	9	10	8	2	6	2	UMass	GaTech	need help	nClem+31,atTex+15,Tenn+14	atBama(-7),atOleMiss(-18)	2
SEC	Tennessee	10	11	8	2	5	2	UTEP	at Vandy	need help	Bama+7	atArk.(-5),atGeorgia-(14)	10
SEC	Texas A&M	15	15	8	2	5	1	at Auburn	Texas	win and in	Mizzou+31	ND(-10), atS.Car(-24)	11
B1G	Oregon	1	1	11	0	8	0	BYE	Washington	IN	Boise+3, tOSU+1,Illinois+29		1
B1G	Ohio State	2	2	9	1	6	1	Indiana	Michigan	win and in	atPennSt+7	atOregon(-1)	3
B1G	Penn State	4	4	9	1	6	1	at Minnesota	Maryland	need help	Illinois+14	tOSU(-7)	4
B1G	Indiana	5	5	10	0	7	0	at Ohio State	Purdue	win and in	Washington+14		6
ACC	Miami	11	8	9	1	5	1	Wake	at Cuse	win and in	atL'ville+7	atGTech(-5)	9
ACC	SMU	13	13	9	1	6	0	at Virginia	Cal	win and in	Pitt+23	BYU(-3)	14
ACC	Clemson	17	17	8	2	7	1	Citadel	So. Carolina	need help	atPitt+4	nGeorgia(-31),Lville(-12)	17
XII	BYU	14	14	9	1	6	1	at AZ State	Houston	win and in	atSMU+3	Kansas(-4)	8
XII	Colorado	16	16	8	2	6	1	at Kansas	Ok State	win and in	atTexTech+14	atNebraska(-18),KsSt(-3)	21
XII	Arizona State	21	21	8	2	5	2	BYU	at Arizona	win and in	atKansSt+10	atTxTech(-8),atCincy(-10)	18
XII	Iowa State	22	22	8	2	5	2	at Utah	Kansas State	need help	atIowa+1	TxTech(-1),atKansas(-9)	22
Ind.	Notre Dame	6	6	9	1	n/a	n/a	at Army	at USC	n/a	atTexAM+10	No.Ill.(-2)	13
MWC	Boise State	12	12	9	1	6	0	at Wyoming	Oregon St	likely CSU	WashSt+21	atOregon(-3)	15
AAC	Army	18	19	9	0	7	0	Notre Dame	UTSA	vs Tulane	ECU+17		19
AAC	Tulane	20	20	9	2	7	0	BYE	Memphis	vs Army	atNavy+35	KsSt(-7),atOkla(-15)	27

I've got the three G5 teams with a path, and all the P4 teams still alive for CCG bids in that table.

Army vs. Tulane in already set in stone with each having 1 more conf. game, and the rest of the AAC with 2+ conf losses.

B1G announced there's no scenario where Oregon loses tiebreakers, even if they drop the game to Washington.

I'm not 100% on Bama having a clear path to the SEC title game, but I wasn't finding any scenarios where they're not in as one of the Texas teams will pick up a second SEC loss next week no matter what. https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

Notre Dame seems to clearly be in with 2 wins, and out (barring a slew of huge SEC upsets) with a loss to either Army or USC

If Army beats Notre Dame, there's some real fear that the XII won't secure an autobid if both Boise and Army win out; I still think the XII champ jumps Boise no matter what. Notre Dame probably wins by 20+ though, so it's probably moot. If Army loses to Notre Dame close, then handles Tulane in the CCG, there should be a Boise or Army conversation, but the committee seems to be set up to avoid that.

I think Clemson's only path is getting help and then winning the ACC. I think SMU is getting hosed a little bit in the rankings, and don't see them getting in if they lose the CCG to Miami. Miami maybe has a shot with a close loss in the ACC CCG.

I'm rooting even harder than normal for SEC upsets; Auburn could soften the bubble with a win over either A&M this week, or more importantly a win over Bama. Ole Miss traveling to Florida is very interesting. Vandy could KO Tennessee's hopes next week.

The four B1G Ten teams seem safe, barring a big upset.

BYU is getting hosed the most in the rankings, they should be side by side with Miami.

What happens if/when Army beats Notre Dame, beats Tulane in the ACC CCG, then loses to Navy the next week?

 

[Darth Snow]

I would even upgrade Texas to low-mid

They’ve played pretty soft and Kentucky is a vintage trap game before the A&M game. Wouldn’t be surprised if this one is squirrelly

Beat me to it

 

[BuffWarHog]

Yes, and uterus and atm have not played in several years, which just increases the game's profile and potential for both teams to be looking ahead.

I wish they they would put this game, and the Egg Bowl back to Thanksgiving day.

 

[Duff Man]

I wish they they would put this game, and the Egg Bowl back to Thanksgiving day.

Blame the NFL for adding a Thanksgiving night game.

 

[Buffalo Brad]

Assuming CU ends up being Big 12 champs:

Would you rather get the 4-seed with a bye and locked in for 2nd round at a bowl site or a 5-8 seed hosting a 1st round playoff game at Folsom?

I think I'd prefer the home playoff game, but don't have a strong preference either way.

I also think that if CU wins its next 3 games we'll end up in the top 8 (from 16 now).

In short, it's all good if CU takes care of its business.

All of this is out of their control except winning the next game on the schedule. Just win Saturday and then next Friday and then in the championship. The last 2 do not matter if you do not win this Sat. Biggest game of the year to this point. Go get em and blow out the J Hawks.

 

[Liver]

I would love a home game in December against a sec team. that would be ripe for an upset... but we either in as conf champs at 4 seed or out entirely unless all hell breaks loose.

whoever wins asu v. byu is going be ranked and if we beat either in the conf champ game, we will jump bsu. assuming we win out.

 

[Alfred91]

I don't think there's any chance we get a home game. If the committee doesn't think we're better than Boise, then we're #12.

 

[Darth Snow]

Colorado has 3. Barely. 2 teams with six wins. CSU is the team with the most wins. I think. Cincy could make it 4.

One problem is that teams seem to go into nose dives after playing us. Even when we lose!

 

[skibum]

Colorado has 3. Barely. 2 teams with six wins. CSU is the team with the most wins. I think. Cincy could make it 4.

One problem is that teams seem to go into nose dives after playing us. Even when we lose!

That's the problem when you're their super bowl.

 

[Buffs35]

I love the SEC and ESPN logic. SEC teams are the best. If a superior SEC team loses to a lesser SEC team, it's because every SEC team is great. If an SEC team falls to a non-sec team, it's because the SEC schedule is so daunting that it weakened said SEC team. Redneck circle jerk.

 

[PhillyBuff]

My top 12 if I was voting:

1. Oregon
2. Miami
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Texas
6. BYU
7. Indiana
8. Tennessee
9. Notre Dame
10. Penn State
11. Boise State
12. Alabama

My top 12 if I was voting:

1. Colorado
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Texas
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Alabama
8. Indiana
9. Ole Miss
10. PSU
11. SMU
12. Miami
13. Boise
14. A&M

Byes 1. Colorado 2. Oregon 3. Texas 4 SMU
5. Ohio State
6.Georgia
7.Tennessee
8. Alabama
9 Indiana
10 Ole Miss
11. PSU
12 Boise




CFP:

 

[ahoelsken]

I'm not seeing CU move ahead of Boise State if both win out. But if BYU wins out, I can see them overtaking Boise State.

BYU beat SMU on the road and yet is behind SMU? Those CFP rankings make no sense.

I think there are a couple reasons that happens. One's the SOS argument. Boise's schedule is going to become even more of a liability for them than it already is. They play ****ty Wyoming and then the same Oregon State team who got dominated in Colorado Springs on Saturday.

KU and OSU may hurt us some, but not that badly. Assuming wins the next two weeks, we'll get to play 11-1 BYU or 10-2 Arizona State on December 7, and whoever that is probably is top 15. Win that and we'll be 4th.

 

[ahoelsken]

Looking at this weekend and running the games through my proprietary upset alert algorithm, there are a lot of higher ranked teams that are on upset alert this weekend. CU could make some big moves this weekend.

#1 Oregon - off
#5 IU @ #2 tOSU - upset potential = medium
KY @ #3 Texas - upset potential = nil
#4 PSU @ Minn. - upset potential = HIGH
#19 Army v. #6 ND - upset potential = low
#7 Bama v. Okla - upset potential = medium
WF @ #8 Miami - upset potential = nil
#9 Ole Miss @ UF - upset potential = HIGH
UMass @ #10 UGA - upset potential = nil
UTEP @ #11 Tenn - upset potential = nil
#12 BSU @ Wyo - upset potential = low to nil
#13 SMU @ UVA - upset potential = medium
#14 BYU @ #21 ASU - upset potential = OFF THE CHARTS HIGH
#15 aTm @ Auburn - upset potential = medium to low-high
#16 CU @ KU - upset potential = low

Indiana is an interesting case. I've heard Josh Pate (one example. he might be a bit of an SEC shill, but he loves him some CU) make this argument. Indiana should not make the playoff if they get punked by tOSU. There's nothing on that resume. Best win is 6-5 Washington.

Is that argument off base?

 

[BuffWarHog]

Blame the NFL for adding a Thanksgiving night game.

I’m not allowed to not like NFL things on here apparently.

 

[Darth Snow]

I’m not allowed to not like NFL things on here apparently.

Sack up.

 

[hawg1]

Indiana is an interesting case. I've heard Josh Pate (one example. he might be a bit of an SEC shill, but he loves him some CU) make this argument. Indiana should not make the playoff if they get punked by tOSU. There's nothing on that resume. Best win is 6-5 Washington.

Is that argument off base?

Truth. 10-2 Tenn >> 11-1 Indiana (especially if they get thumped by tOSU)

IMO.

 

[Duff Man]

Truth. 10-2 Tenn >> 11-1 Indiana (especially if they get thumped by tOSU)

IMO.

Let's be honest though... Tennessee with a clearly injured QB is going to get blown out in round one.

 

[PhillyBuff]

I don't feel that Indiana was ranked too low given they schedule they've played, but BYU on the other hand has 2 very good wins against ranked teams.

Penn State is ranked 20-30 spots too high

FIFY!

 

[PhillyBuff]

This had to have been where I saw that. I thought somebody with more credibility had that.

SOS when applied to BSU Conference teams has a bias toward the weaker teams with better scheduled.

Dont give me that ****!

 

[PhillyBuff]

I would love a home game in December against a sec team. that would be ripe for an upset... but we either in as conf champs at 4 seed or out entirely unless all hell breaks loose.

whoever wins asu v. byu is going be ranked and if we beat either in the conf champ game, we will jump bsu. assuming we win out.

Who ARE you?

We have the #1 seed.

 

[Trogdor]

This. **** the SEC. Step up and start playing more conference games you snowflake **** bags

Meanwhile Indiana, Oregon and Penn State don't play, while Ohio State plays all 3. Maybe **** these huge conferences?

 

[Buff_since76]

This is what I think of when people argue about how great the SEC is:

Team buys out the contract to play SMU because SMU is now in a P4 conference and the Team needs pad its win total. Team replaces SMU with Georgia State. Then the Team then proceeds to lose to Georgian State

That Team is now considered an above average team in the SEC and a quality win/lose depending on the argument.

The SEC - It just means that we can argue about things on-line without adding a 9th conference game

One additional complaint. This weekend is the third time an SEC team plays UMASS. Can't work in another conference game when everyone has UMASS on the schedule. UMASS should sue for a partial share of the SEC media deal by playing so many conference teams.

 

[Bison]

I’m not allowed to not like NFL things on here apparently.

Just stuff the turkey.

 

[Denver_sc]

I would love a home game in December against a sec team. that would be ripe for an upset... but we either in as conf champs at 4 seed or out entirely unless all hell breaks loose.

whoever wins asu v. byu is going be ranked and if we beat either in the conf champ game, we will jump bsu. assuming we win out.

Nightmare scenario is that ASU wins this week, and loses next week to Arizona.

I think there are a couple reasons that happens. One's the SOS argument. Boise's schedule is going to become even more of a liability for them than it already is. They play ****ty Wyoming and then the same Oregon State team who got dominated in Colorado Springs on Saturday.

KU and OSU may hurt us some, but not that badly. Assuming wins the next two weeks, we'll get to play 11-1 BYU or 10-2 Arizona State on December 7, and whoever that is probably is top 15. Win that and we'll be 4th.

Sagarin has Boise State's SOS at 91st, and CU's at 22nd. Put it this way, if BSU's average opponent was rated by Sagarin, they'd be rated 96th, right between UC Davis and Eastern Carolina. And both Wyoming and OSU are rated lower than that, so it's going to go down.

(FWIW, CU's average opponent would be 48th, between Utah and Nebraska).

This is what I think of when people argue about how great the SEC is:

Team buys out the contract to play SMU because SMU is now in a P4 conference and the Team needs pad its win total. Team replaces SMU with Georgia State. Then the Team then proceeds to lose to Georgian State

That Team is now considered an above average team in the SEC and a quality win/lose depending on the argument.

The SEC - It just means that we can argue about things on-line without adding a 9th conference game

One additional complaint. This weekend is the third time an SEC team plays UMASS. Can't work in another conference game when everyone has UMASS on the schedule. UMASS should sue for a partial share of the SEC media deal by playing so many conference teams.

That same Georgia State team is winless in the Sunbelt.

Shockingly, the only P4 team that the SEC beat in non-conference with a winning record is Clemson. The only other two P4 opponents they played with winning records won (ASU and Miami).

To be clear, though, the SEC is the best conference, but i found that interesting.

 

[Robert Sorell]

What happens if/when Army beats Notre Dame, beats Tulane in the ACC CCG, then loses to Navy the next week?

This is the kind of chaos we deserve.

CFP selection is before the Army/Navy game.

It would be hilarious if Boise or Tennessee got bounced by Army, and then Army loses to Navy.

 

[CarlB]

The CFP selection system is highly flawed, which is par for the course for CFB. One way to make things less flawed is to compel the SEC to play 9 conference games. Until that happens, the SEC needs to quit whining when some of their 2-loss teams get left out.