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TSchekler

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There are going to be teams who get absolutely decimated at some point during the season and will have to cancel games.
Cancel games or just play with backups? Probably depends on how quickly they can get testing results turned around
 

hokiehead

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There are going to be teams who get absolutely decimated at some point during the season and will have to cancel games.
Cancel games or just play with backups? Probably depends on how quickly they can get testing results turned around
i think you guys are getting at one of the root questions: what is the plan on how each team will respond to a positive case? ...an outbreak of 2 - 5 positives simultaneously? more than five?

presumably no one is planning to shut things down over an isolated case or there wouldn't be a point in starting. but nobody's really sharing what their contingency plans are.
 

patebuff

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Cancel games or just play with backups? Probably depends on how quickly they can get testing results turned around
I would imagine the conferences will do everything in their powers to have games, even with backups. I could see a scenario where a School has a legitimate chance at the playoffs, or high level P5, and could have a couple key players out due to COVID. They would do everything in their power to cancel the upcoming game and reschedule.

I feel pretty confident there will at least be a start of the season. I feel pretty confident there won't be an entire season. So many logistics and optics that are completely out of the control of each program, conference, NCAA, etc.
 

CarolinaBuff

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yeah, those schools need to merge w/ the B1G for that to happen.

after looking, it appears this only worked out for VT. so I'm guessing it was just luck and not planned intent.
Looks like their longest road trips are to Pitt and Louisville, 5 and 6 hours respectively. Their other 3 games are in NC.
 

CarolinaBuff

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I have seen that $15M deal when doing Google searches so I am guessing that is correct. That means Norte Dame would command about $3M per away game just to get to about the same amount that CU is getting from the Pac-12 every year for media rights alone.
That $15 million figure is interesting because it means they aren't really making all that much off the contract. In a typical year they have 7 home games and if they pay out roughly $1.5 million per team, that means they're only making maybe $5 million per season on this deal, if that.
 

MtnBuff

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just a note -- I've been following conference realignment topics for a while and the ACC/Notre Dame relationship specifically since 2012.

I still believe it's at least equally likely that Notre Dame ends up in a conference other than the ACC (most probably the B1G) as they do the ACC. Nobody who follows ACC conference news seriously is taking for granted that ND ends up as full members there.

The money is better in the B1G, there's more legacy with those schools (i.e. established rivalries), and these GoR contracts still have yet to be tested with a legal challenge in court.
Adding Notre Dame does much more for the ACC than it does for the B1G. For football purposes the ACC has Clemson, a down FSU, and not much else in terms of national starpower programs. Adding ND would make the rest of those programs much more valuable.

In the B1G you have Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State as high profile (and high dollar) national programs with Wisconsin and MSU not that far behind. Even Iowa would be a big fish in the ACC pond.

This matters because for ND joining the B1G would mean accepting the same deal as everyone else in the conference including OOC TV rights and scheduling.

The ACC needs them enough that the confence would be likely to bend on allowing ND to continue to not share the big chunk of extra money they get from their traditional game against USC and maybe some other OOC compromises as well as allow them to continue to schedule games like the USC game later in the year.
 

zbuff

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yeah, those schools need to merge w/ the B1G for that to happen.

after looking, it appears this only worked out for VT. so I'm guessing it was just luck and not planned intent.
Syracuse to Minneapolis is one helluva bus ride.
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onealcd

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That $15 million figure is interesting because it means they aren't really making all that much off the contract. In a typical year they have 7 home games and if they pay out roughly $1.5 million per team, that means they're only making maybe $5 million per season on this deal, if that.
But how many of those are home and homes? And how many are contracted ACC games that they don’t have to pay for because they are built into the scheduling alliance.
 

Buffnik

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my understanding is that ND is giving up a lot of their NBC TV money to make this happen. agree the ACC wants ND as a full member and will bend over to make that happen though.
What's the speculation on the 16th ACC conference member if Notre Dame becomes a full member?

Poaching WVU from the B12 seems like it would be a natural with its proximity and history with the former Big East members (particularly that big rivalry with Pitt).

Cincinnati would also seem to make some sense as it bridges to Indiana and also has history plus some rivalries (Louisville and Pitt).

Both have strong hoops programs, which seems to be a big deal. I'd think Cincy would be the choice of ESPN since it brings in Ohio tv's, which is much more valuable than other options.
 

onealcd

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What's the speculation on the 16th ACC conference member if Notre Dame becomes a full member?

Poaching WVU from the B12 seems like it would be a natural with its proximity and history with the former Big East members (particularly that big rivalry with Pitt).

Cincinnati would also seem to make some sense as it bridges to Indiana and also has history plus some rivalries (Louisville and Pitt).

Both have strong hoops programs, which seems to be a big deal. I'd think Cincy would be the choice of ESPN since it brings in Ohio tv's, which is much more valuable than other options.
Logically, West Virginia goes to the ACC, which allows the big 10 to take Kansas and Iowa State. Which means that will never happen.
 

hawg1

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What's the speculation on the 16th ACC conference member if Notre Dame becomes a full member?

Poaching WVU from the B12 seems like it would be a natural with its proximity and history with the former Big East members (particularly that big rivalry with Pitt).

Cincinnati would also seem to make some sense as it bridges to Indiana and also has history plus some rivalries (Louisville and Pitt).

Both have strong hoops programs, which seems to be a big deal. I'd think Cincy would be the choice of ESPN since it brings in Ohio tv's, which is much more valuable than other options.
UCF.
 

hokiehead

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What's the speculation on the 16th ACC conference member if Notre Dame becomes a full member?

Poaching WVU from the B12 seems like it would be a natural with its proximity and history with the former Big East members (particularly that big rivalry with Pitt).

Cincinnati would also seem to make some sense as it bridges to Indiana and also has history plus some rivalries (Louisville and Pitt).

Both have strong hoops programs, which seems to be a big deal. I'd think Cincy would be the choice of ESPN since it brings in Ohio tv's, which is much more valuable than other options.
this is all fan speculation. everyone was shocked by the Notre Dame deal in 2012, and ACC fans are gun shy of making predictions. that being said, here's my ranking by perceived liklihood, assuming ND joins the ACC as a full member:
  • WVU: geographic makes sense, established rivalries w/ Pitt and Tech. however, nobody seems to believe that UVA, UNC or Duke would allow WVU to join (common posts: "really? do you honestly believe that the school that Thomas Jefferson founded would let the couch burners join?!?!?!"). While some argue that Louisville is a counter example, I don't see it that way -- I think Louisville is currently viewed as a negative by the ACC. WVU is my second choice.
  • Penn State: everyone is hoping that ND would be the carrot that might bring PSU over. Paterno often spoke of a desire to form a "power conference" that was East Coast based and reportedly never wanted to join the B1G -- a lot of fans are hoping that this attitude persists at PSU but I think that's dreaming. Honestly, I think losing Maryland to the B1G hurt the ACC here. PSU would be my top choice if I got to be the picker. The B1G has no grant of rights, which in a sense makes them the most poachable.
  • UConn. I can argue both sides of this. If the ACC isn't going to jettison Syracuse and BC, then it makes sense to bring in UConn. OTOH, nobody in that area gives a care about CFB and I struggle to advocate for further expansion into a region with no fan support.
  • Cincy. I'm not a fan, but they're trying hard.
  • Navy. helps win back part of the WMA market we lost w/ Mary's departure
  • Texas. when the XII was rumored to be on the brink of financial failure, discussions were rumored to be taking place between UT and the ACC. If a bunch of the XII schools cannot survive the loss of revenue from CV19, this could get restarted, especially if the B1G isn't showing interest.
  • other mentions with (IMO) even lower probability:
    • Central Florida, South Florida -- we already have two FL schools
    • Memphis -- don't think this is as strong as Cincy or UConn and it doesn't make sense for the ACC to encroach on established SEC territory where we have no current foothold
    • Tulane, Toronto -- just don't make sense for the ACC
    • Maryland -- why would they come back? money trumps history.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
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this is all fan speculation. everyone was shocked by the Notre Dame deal in 2012, and ACC fans are gun shy of making predictions. that being said, here's my ranking by perceived liklihood, assuming ND joins the ACC as a full member:
  • WVU: geographic makes sense, established rivalries w/ Pitt and Tech. however, nobody seems to believe that UVA, UNC or Duke would allow WVU to join (common posts: "really? do you honestly believe that the school that Thomas Jefferson founded would let the couch burners join?!?!?!"). While some argue that Louisville is a counter example, I don't see it that way -- I think Louisville is currently viewed as a negative by the ACC. WVU is my second choice.
  • Penn State: everyone is hoping that ND would be the carrot that might bring PSU over. Paterno often spoke of a desire to form a "power conference" that was East Coast based and reportedly never wanted to join the B1G -- a lot of fans are hoping that this attitude persists at PSU but I think that's dreaming. Honestly, I think losing Maryland to the B1G hurt the ACC here. PSU would be my top choice if I got to be the picker. The B1G has no grant of rights, which in a sense makes them the most poachable.
  • UConn. I can argue both sides of this. If the ACC isn't going to jettison Syracuse and BC, then it makes sense to bring in UConn. OTOH, nobody in that area gives a care about CFB and I struggle to advocate for further expansion into a region with no fan support.
  • Cincy. I'm not a fan, but they're trying hard.
  • Navy. helps win back part of the WMA market we lost w/ Mary's departure
  • Texas. when the XII was rumored to be on the brink of financial failure, discussions were rumored to be taking place between UT and the ACC. If a bunch of the XII schools cannot survive the loss of revenue from CV19, this could get restarted, especially if the B1G isn't showing interest.
  • other mentions with (IMO) even lower probability:
    • Central Florida, South Florida -- we already have two FL schools
    • Memphis -- don't think this is as strong as Cincy or UConn and it doesn't make sense for the ACC to encroach on established SEC territory where we have no current foothold
    • Tulane, Toronto -- just don't make sense for the ACC
    • Maryland -- why would they come back? money trumps history.
Thanks for the insights/details.

Regarding UCF, the only speculation I've seen on a path to the ACC seems to require SEC expansion and them having Miami as their #1 target. In that scenario, getting back to 2 FL programs makes sense.
 

hokiehead

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Thanks for the insights/details.

Regarding UCF, the only speculation I've seen on a path to the ACC seems to require SEC expansion and them having Miami as their #1 target. In that scenario, getting back to 2 FL programs makes sense.
agree 100%.

On SEC expansion, I think their top choices are (roughly in my perceived order of likelihood):
  • Carolina -- I hate to say it, but Chapel Hill would be a prize for the SEC or any conference. AAU status, blue blood in hoops, fan base financally dedicated to football, competitive in non-revenue sports (I shouldn't use that term -- I paid more for a UNC baseball ticket than the Durham Bulls charged).
  • Florida State -- this would allow the SEC to pretty much own Florida recruiting
  • Texas -- the pros and cons have been regurgitated on this board repeatedly
  • Virginia -- may only make sense if they get a Carolina school as well, but opens up the WMA to the SEC even if not
  • Oklahoma - if Texas leaves a failing XII, this becomes an option
  • Miami -- I don't understand why Miami's recruiting hasn't rebounded. for most of my life, whenever Miami was NOT on NCAA probation they out recruited the other FL schools. Something has changed.
  • Clemson -- SEC gets a power house, but they already have a presence in SC. and, before Dabo came to Clemson, USC-East owned the state
If the SEC wants to expand, i think they'll find their new members from those schools. I do not believe the ACC's GoR will save us when challenged in court, or simply bought out through a negotiation.
 

onealcd

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agree 100%.

On SEC expansion, I think their top choices are (roughly in my perceived order of likelihood):
  • Carolina -- I hate to say it, but Chapel Hill would be a prize for the SEC or any conference. AAU status, blue blood in hoops, fan base financally dedicated to football, competitive in non-revenue sports (I shouldn't use that term -- I paid more for a UNC baseball ticket than the Durham Bulls charged).
  • Florida State -- this would allow the SEC to pretty much own Florida recruiting
  • Texas -- the pros and cons have been regurgitated on this board repeatedly
  • Virginia -- may only make sense if they get a Carolina school as well, but opens up the WMA to the SEC even if not
  • Oklahoma - if Texas leaves a failing XII, this becomes an option
  • Miami -- I don't understand why Miami's recruiting hasn't rebounded. for most of my life, whenever Miami was NOT on NCAA probation they out recruited the other FL schools. Something has changed.
  • Clemson -- SEC gets a power house, but they already have a presence in SC. and, before Dabo came to Clemson, USC-East owned the state
If the SEC wants to expand, i think they'll find their new members from those schools. I do not believe the ACC's GoR will save us when challenged in court, or simply bought out through a negotiation.
Can you imagine the SEC poaching North Carolina and Clemson? Just total domination of the south.
 

onealcd

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unfortunately, I can. I think poaching by the SEC is the biggest risk to the future of the ACC.
I see it differently. I think the SEC is pretty solid where they are at. Adding more elite programs makes is that much harder so you have two questions, 1) why would texas for example want to go Into a division with bama, lsu, auburn and then more elite programs in the east? It just makes everything a hell of a lot harder. 2) why would the sec want to make what is already the hardest conference even more difficult for their teams?

I think when you look and conference consolidation over the next 5-10 years you have to remember competitive balance for these teams/conferences. Big 10 west needs another power but has plenty of big time programs as a whole. ACC needs notre dame and for their traditional powers to get back into shape (fsu and miami). Sec is pretty set but could use a couple more schools in Texas/OU. Pac 12 needs a blue blood or two to pair with USC but the depth of those other programs is pretty solid and just like with the ACC it needs its top programs to perform (UsC and UCLA). The big 12 needs quite a bit but they are pretty stuck with no options
 

hokiehead

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I really respect your opinions on CFB -- I'm curious why you think this way.

It seems to me that if the SEC approached UNC and UVA with an expansion offer "you'll get double the media revenue, our current schools' fan bases will sell out stadiums for home games and you'll never have to make a road trip to the Northeast again.... oh, and UNC will never have to play State again nor will UVA have to play Tech ever again... But best of all, you'll both immediately become 'the football school' in your respective states and own your current rivals in recruiting". I think (and fear) those schools would explore the option.

I don't know enough about Texas to challenge your thoughts there.
 

Duff Man

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I really respect your opinions on CFB -- I'm curious why you think this way.

It seems to me that if the SEC approached UNC and UVA with an expansion offer "you'll get double the media revenue, our current schools' fan bases will sell out stadiums for home games and you'll never have to make a road trip to the Northeast again.... oh, and UNC will never have to play State again nor will UVA have to play Tech ever again... But best of all, you'll both immediately become 'the football school' in your respective states and own your current rivals in recruiting". I think (and fear) those schools would explore the option.

I don't know enough about Texas to challenge your thoughts there.
The academics are the huge factor you are ignoring.
 

hokiehead

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The academics are the huge factor you are ignoring.
Not ignoring, just don't believe academics will be a strong driver in future expansion. I could be wrong. I hope I am.

I also think there's a bit of a perception vs reality mismatch with SEC academics. They have more bottom dwellers than the ACC, but only one less AAU member than the current ACC full time schools.
 

Duff Man

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Not ignoring, just don't believe academics will be a strong driver in future expansion. I could be wrong. I hope I am.

I also think there's a bit of a perception vs reality mismatch with SEC academics. They have more bottom dwellers than the ACC, but only one less AAU member than the current ACC full time schools.
For some schools? Unlikely. But for elite public schools? Absolutely.
 
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