Conference Auto-Bid & Bubble Watch

[Buffnik]

FWIW, Wofford was in regardless. They are like 11th in NET.

True. I was trying to decide if this one mattered. UNCG and Furman are still bubble teams from the SoCon who will at least make the NIT. This result may have only been relevant if CU had been an NCAA bubble team this year. It won't impact the number of NIT slots going to those bubble teams that don't make it. So maybe irrelevant for us?

 

[Buffnik]

So far only 2 out of 5 conference tourneys have gone to chalk.

Today we have 5 more finals.

Colonial: 1 Hofstra vs 2 Northeastern
Horizon: 1 Wright State vs 2 Northern Kentucky
NEC: 1 St. Francis (PA) vs 2 Fairleigh Dickinson
Summit: 4 North Dakota State vs 2 Omaha -- already busted
WCC: 1 Gonzaga vs 2 St. Mary's

 

[crosby87]

Will Lipscomb get an at large? I don't think Belmont will. I bet a parlay with the Nets and Delaware getting 10.5 last night. Hofstra have had a good year and their coach is a very funny schlubby guy but man that is a tough conf to watch. They chuck 3s off the backboard side. Miss FTs. Get their apples picked in mid court. Step out of bounds on the last possession. It's almost like the Pac-12!

I can't bet on FDU because they are in NJ but I like them tonight.

 

[ahoelsken]

FWIW, Wofford was in regardless. They are like 11th in NET.

And that's the flaw with the NET-Wofford is a very, very good team from what I saw last night-but the reality of it is they're as high as they are because they lost to North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi State-not because they played and beat a bunch of big names in the OOC like......Gonzaga (and yeah that might not be a good comparison but I'll use it anyway because they play in what usually is a one bid league) did. It seems like we're talking up that league because they beat up on each other.

 

[ahoelsken]

So far only 2 out of 5 conference tourneys have gone to chalk.

Today we have 5 more finals.

Colonial: 1 Hofstra vs 2 Northeastern
Horizon: 1 Wright State vs 2 Northern Kentucky
NEC: 1 St. Francis (PA) vs 2 Fairleigh Dickinson
Summit: 4 North Dakota State vs 2 Omaha -- already busted
WCC: 1 Gonzaga vs 2 St. Mary's

Watched Gonzaga last night-they're going to punk St. Mary's tonight. This bunch of Zags looks as good as any team Mark Few has had up there.

 

[Buffnik]

Not the 1st half we wanted to see in the 3 games that are on right now.

 

[Buffnik]

Fairleigh Dickinson, Northern Kentucky & Northeastern all with bubble buster wins to go to the Dance.

 

[Medford M.]

Fairleigh Dickinson, Northern Kentucky & Northeastern all with bubble buster wins to go to the Dance.

NIT bubble busters?

 

[ahoelsken]

SMC-Gonzaga have any effect on the NIT bubble at all? Doesn't seem like it.

 

[torero]

SMC-Gonzaga have any effect on the NIT bubble at all? Doesn't seem like it.

St Mary’s was absolutely NIT bound if they didn’t get an NCAA bid, so this definitely opens an NIT slot.

My Toreros were right there with St. Mary’s for 39 minutes last night. Damn, what could’ve been. Would’ve been their 5th game in 6 days though so the results probably would’ve been different against the zags.

Edit: to be clear, although it’s moot now, st Mary’s could’ve been in the NCAA without the autobid. They were very much on the bubble.

 

[ahoelsken]

St Mary’s was absolutely NIT bound if they didn’t get an NCAA bid, so this definitely opens an NIT slot.

My Toreros were right there with St. Mary’s for 39 minutes last night. Damn, what could’ve been. Would’ve been their 5th game in 6 days though so the results probably would’ve been different against the zags.

Edit: to be clear, although it’s moot now, st Mary’s could’ve been in the NCAA without the autobid. They were very much on the bubble.

I thought they were out-I didn't see anything that stood out other than the win at NMSU....and I think we need a solid showing (probably at least getting to Friday) to really feel like we're solidly in.

 

[Buffnik]

11 tourney champions. Only two 1-seeds have won.

Tomorrow we've got a ton of 1st and 2nd round games on with the Patriot the only final being decided.

 

[Buffnik]

NIT bubble busters?

Yes

 

[MtnBuff]

St Mary’s was absolutely NIT bound if they didn’t get an NCAA bid, so this definitely opens an NIT slot.

My Toreros were right there with St. Mary’s for 39 minutes last night. Damn, what could’ve been. Would’ve been their 5th game in 6 days though so the results probably would’ve been different against the zags.

Edit: to be clear, although it’s moot now, st Mary’s could’ve been in the NCAA without the autobid. They were very much on the bubble.

That conference used to be Gonzaga and the midgets. Now they have some very solid and improving programs.

Despite this game Gonzaga is still the class of the conference but they can no longer count on walking through their conference schedule. If the WCC keeps developing they could in the near future be a conference that people count for two or even three bids before the season starts.

And yes your San Diego team is one of those that is earning more respect each year.

 

[torero]

That conference used to be Gonzaga and the midgets. Now they have some very solid and improving programs.

Despite this game Gonzaga is still the class of the conference but they can no longer count on walking through their conference schedule. If the WCC keeps developing they could in the near future be a conference that people count for two or even three bids before the season starts.

And yes your San Diego team is one of those that is earning more respect each year.

Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure USD is gonna stink next year. 3 best players are seniors, and those 3 probably have at least 2/3 of this teams scoring.

BYU joining the conference has really helped take it up a notch, but it isn’t really fair to think of it as Gonzaga and the midgets. St Mary’s I’m pretty sure is in the top 10 nationally in winning percentage over the last ten years. There’s a ton of great history, especially at LMU and San Francisco. Consistently one of the top mid major conferences. Throw out the “new” big east, and it’s the best non football sponsoring conference aside from the A10, and better than a lot of football sponsoring conferences too. (I wouldn’t argue against someone saying the MVC, but I’m biased).

 

[manhattanbuff]

St. Mary’s 15 point dogs win by 13. Whoa

 

[Buffnik]

Changed the thread title to also make this our "Bubble" thread.

Particularly important since Bilas actually has CU as his #60 team entering today, which means that we might actually have to consider the possibility of getting an at-large with 3 wins in the P12T even if we fail to win the championship. Long shot, I think, but well within the realm of possibility if we can get our NET rating into the Top 55 (#69 entering today).

 

[Robert Sorell]

St Mary’s was absolutely NIT bound if they didn’t get an NCAA bid, so this definitely opens an NIT slot.

My Toreros were right there with St. Mary’s for 39 minutes last night. Damn, what could’ve been. Would’ve been their 5th game in 6 days though so the results probably would’ve been different against the zags.

Edit: to be clear, although it’s moot now, st Mary’s could’ve been in the NCAA without the autobid. They were very much on the bubble.

It doesn't open an NIT slot. If SMC was slotted into NIT, but then bumped up to NCAA, then that means a previous NCAA team would be bumped down to NIT.

 

[Buffnik]

Bubble result: NC State, seen by most as in the Dance as a 10 or 11 seed just beat Clemson -- which just about everyone had somewhere in the "last 4 in" to "next 4 out" range.

 

[Buffnik]

It doesn't open an NIT slot. If SMC was slotted into NIT, but then bumped up to NCAA, then that means a previous NCAA team would be bumped down to NIT.

What that did, though, is eliminate a Bubble spot since Gonzaga was in no matter what. Now it's definite that the WCC will have 2 bids and that eliminated a bubble slot for someone to get an at-large selection for. It definitely hurt bubble teams because SMC was likely out.

 

[HighlandsBuff]

they play in what usually is a one bid league[/I]) did. It seems like we're talking up that league because they beat up on each other.

That hasn't been true for a decade, and anyone who actually pays attention to college basketball would know that.

WCC Bids by Year
07-08 - 3 (USD, GU, SMC)
08-09 - 1 (GU)
09-10 - 2 (GU, SMC)
10-11 - 1 (GU)
11-12 - 3 (BYU, GU, SMC)
12-13 - 2 (GU, SMC)
13-14 - 2 (GU, BYU)
14-15 - 2 (GU, BYU)
15-16 - 1 (GU)
16-17 - 2 (GU, SMC)
17-18 - 1 (GU)
18-19 - 2 (GU, SMC)

So it's been a 1 bid league 4 times since 2007-08, a 2 bid league 6 times, and a 3 bid league twice. Impressively, it sent three teams to the tournament as an 8 team league in 2007-08, and 3 again as a nine team league in 2011-12.

In the last 12 years, its been a multiple bid league 8 times. It's hardly usually a one bid league. It's actually a damn good basketball conference that posted a winning record against the Pac-12 this year and has a number of other programs that have a long tradition of basketball success (USF and Bill Russell, Santa Clara with Nash and Rambis, etc.)...

I don't mean to be aggressive, I just find it such an over-done talking point to dismiss Gonzaga. Out of 32 NCAA conferences, the WCC is 8th in the RPI.

 

[crosby87]

St. John's giving 5 tonight. 9:30 start at MSG is not going to be a good look for DePaul.

These ACC games are a joke. The team winning goes like 10 minutes without scoring in the second half then suddenly it's a 1 pt game. It's almost like the WWE.

I would be nervous about laying -10.5 on The Buffs. I know Cal stink but still.

 

[Buffnik]

That hasn't been true for a decade, and anyone who actually pays attention to college basketball would know that.

WCC Bids by Year
07-08 - 3 (USD, GU, SMC)
08-09 - 1 (GU)
09-10 - 2 (GU, SMC)
10-11 - 1 (GU)
11-12 - 3 (BYU, GU, SMC)
12-13 - 2 (GU, SMC)
13-14 - 2 (GU, BYU)
14-15 - 2 (GU, BYU)
15-16 - 1 (GU)
16-17 - 2 (GU, SMC)
17-18 - 1 (GU)
18-19 - 2 (GU, SMC)

So it's been a 1 bid league 4 times since 2007-08, a 2 bid league 6 times, and a 3 bid league twice. Impressively, it sent three teams to the tournament as an 8 team league in 2007-08, and 3 again as a nine team league in 2011-12.

In the last 12 years, its been a multiple bid league 8 times. It's hardly usually a one bid league. It's actually a damn good basketball conference that posted a winning record against the Pac-12 this year and has a number of other programs that have a long tradition of basketball success (USF and Bill Russell, Santa Clara with Nash and Rambis, etc.)...

I don't mean to be aggressive, I just find it such an over-done talking point to dismiss Gonzaga. Out of 32 NCAA conferences, the WCC is 8th in the RPI.

Yep. WCC is generally a 2-bid league. This year I think they were looking at 1 bid. SMC scheduled tough for once in the non-con, but they didn't beat anybody. BYU was a bit down due to several guys leaving and others like USD had successful seasons but didn't jump up enough to justify dancing.

In general, I'd put the WCC right there with the MVC on the quality of basketball. Not to the level of the AAC or A-10, but near the top of the conferences outside of the Power 6.

 

[HighlandsBuff]

Yep. WCC is generally a 2-bid league. This year I think they were looking at 1 bid. SMC scheduled tough for once in the non-con, but they didn't beat anybody. BYU was a bit down due to several guys leaving and others like USD had successful seasons but didn't jump up enough to justify dancing.

In general, I'd put the WCC right there with the MVC on the quality of basketball. Not to the level of the AAC or A-10, but near the top of the conferences outside of the Power 6.

I think that's right. It's squarely a "below the rim" league, and no one is going to confuse it for the ACC, but it is quality hoops. Every team but Gonzaga and Pacific is in a major media market and competes directly with pro and big time college sports, and the schools have small enrollments and more reserved fan bases, so it's quieter perception. They just got another deal with ESPN announced yesterday, the details are still filtering out. Unless there's huge structural changes to the NCAA, the WCC will hang around as multi-bid league more often than not.

USF also had a pretty admirable year until the end, they were maybe an NIT team until that skid. Had SMC not won last night, it would have been a one-bid year for sure.

 

[ahoelsken]

That hasn't been true for a decade, and anyone who actually pays attention to college basketball would know that.

WCC Bids by Year
07-08 - 3 (USD, GU, SMC)
08-09 - 1 (GU)
09-10 - 2 (GU, SMC)
10-11 - 1 (GU)
11-12 - 3 (BYU, GU, SMC)
12-13 - 2 (GU, SMC)
13-14 - 2 (GU, BYU)
14-15 - 2 (GU, BYU)
15-16 - 1 (GU)
16-17 - 2 (GU, SMC)
17-18 - 1 (GU)
18-19 - 2 (GU, SMC)

So it's been a 1 bid league 4 times since 2007-08, a 2 bid league 6 times, and a 3 bid league twice. Impressively, it sent three teams to the tournament as an 8 team league in 2007-08, and 3 again as a nine team league in 2011-12.

In the last 12 years, its been a multiple bid league 8 times. It's hardly usually a one bid league. It's actually a damn good basketball conference that posted a winning record against the Pac-12 this year and has a number of other programs that have a long tradition of basketball success (USF and Bill Russell, Santa Clara with Nash and Rambis, etc.)...

I don't mean to be aggressive, I just find it such an over-done talking point to dismiss Gonzaga. Out of 32 NCAA conferences, the WCC is 8th in the RPI.

You selectively edited what I wrote and I'm not sure you understood what I was even talking about, but okay-the league that I think we're talking up right now because they beat up on each other was the SoCon......not the WCC (which yes I was wrong about). The point of my post was I don't think you can take UNCG and Furman as at larges over say Arizona State. Do those three (include Wofford in here too) have a Q1 win over somebody outside of each other?

Gonzaga can play with anybody in the country, and the only way I would not give them the #1 in the West on Sunday is if Tennessee (who has a win over them) wins the SEC tournament. They are very much still a national championship contender and I think losing last night will help them in the long run actually. Not dismissing them at all. Few is a hell of a coach (hall of famer) who you can't help but admire for staying there and building that program into the powerhouse it is.

 

[Buffnik]

This makes me nervous.

DRatings has CU as 1 of the final 2 at-large bids to the NIT after yesterday's results: https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

 

[hokiehead]

I'm not suggesting by any means that the same arguments should apply for both football and basketball, but discussing Gonzaga and whether they deserve a 1 seed is very reminiscent of discussing UCF and whether they should get a playoff spot. The argument against UCF was "if they played a P5 schedule, week in and week out, facing the top level of competition, they would definitely lose a few along the way and we wouldn't be talking about them".

When I look at the WCC standings, it appears there is likewise a huge drop-off after Gonzaga. No other teams in the top 30 NET (and only one other in the Top 70). Gonzaga had a nice neutral court win over Duke, certainly UCF didn't have a comparable non-conf win. Other than the tourney winner, I don't believe the WCC will put another team in the tourney; UCF played six bowl teams in conference.

Why does nobody ask "if Gonzaga played in the ACC would their resulting record put them in the discussion for a #1 seed?"

 

[ahoelsken]

I'm not suggesting by any means that the same arguments should apply for both football and basketball, but discussing Gonzaga and whether they deserve a 1 seed is very reminiscent of discussing UCF and whether they should get a playoff spot. The argument against UCF was "if they played a P5 schedule, week in and week out, facing the top level of competition, they would definitely lose a few along the way and we wouldn't be talking about them".

When I look at the WCC standings, it appears there is likewise a huge drop-off after Gonzaga. No other teams in the top 30 NET (and only one other in the Top 70). Gonzaga had a nice neutral court win over Duke, certainly UCF didn't have a comparable non-conf win. Other than the tourney winner, I don't believe the WCC will put another team in the tourney; UCF played six bowl teams in conference.

Why does nobody ask "if Gonzaga played in the ACC would their resulting record put them in the discussion for a #1 seed?"

If they played in our league, they'd dominate it like they have the WCC.

 

[ahoelsken]

This makes me nervous.

DRatings has CU as 1 of the final 2 at-large bids to the NIT after yesterday's results: https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

Saying we need to win today and tomorrow is probably an understatement, but Providence and Xavier making early exits in the Big East Tourney would definitely help.

 

[Buffnik]

Saying we need to win today and tomorrow is probably an understatement, but Providence and Xavier making early exits in the Big East Tourney would definitely help.

Yep. I'm also looking at all those 17-14 and 16-15 schools that have inflated NET ratings due to very strong SOS. If CU ends up 21-12 (while winning 10 of our last 13 games), it gets hard to justify putting in 16-16 or 17-15 teams ahead of us. I don't know whether the committees care as much as they should about how a team is playing now versus what they did in November/December, but they should care. This CU team is not the same team that had limped to an 11-9 start.