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Conference Expansion - Big 12 is a tire fire
- Thread starter hokiehead
- Start date
Mtn and others seem to think as well. Not sure I understand that argument.
Sadly, no.
But the thing is always going to go back to if there's enough schools that fit the bill enough to really get to 5 16 team power conferences.
I think there's going to have to be some sort of massive movement, either conference implosion/mergers or a lot of G5 schools being elevated that will be surprising.
Unless they have some kind of convention with the presidents and completely re-organize then no the PAC12 doesn't "have" to expand. Remember that the B12 is expanding now just to get to 12.
I'm not saying that the PAC absolutely won't go to more schools. I just don't currently see the additions that make sense. Why divide a pie into smaller pieces? If the additions bring enough to justify the cut they get then certainly but adding schools that don't draw TV numbers and don't sell tickets just to have more schools makes no sense.
Right now in and around the PAC footprint those schools don't exist that are available for expansion. Should the B12 implode then there would be some schools that make sense, right now there aren't.
Those of us that understand this concept may not have all the answers right now, as to how it will happen or which schools it will happen with, to satisfy the naysayers but I think they are the delusional ones at this point.
Your Big 12 example is meaningless as it pertains to leagues expanding to 16 teams. The entire college football landscape will be drastically different than it is now, when that starts happening. I don't have the answers and it's tough to even speculate on the specifics, but if 3 other conferences get to 16, you really believe the Pac is going to remain at 12 simply because you and Sackman can't foresee any teams that make sense?
Exactly. If the major media outlets that broadcast college football and its playoff decide that it needs to be a Pac-16 then it's going to be a Pac-16 whether the conference members like it or not. Much better to be proactive in choosing the teams we want instead of being the last conference looking for dance partners and being told who to take.
If, and that is still an if, not a for sure, three other conferences go to 16 and the TV contracts require another 16 team league then it is very logical to see the B12 disolve and their better members come available.
Until then it is absolutely stupid to expand just to expand. People talking about adding UNLV or Boise or SDSU or other G5 schools. Those schools don't add any appreciable TV market, if they did the MWC would have much bigger media payouts. So you want to divide the pot resulting in close to a 25% reduction in media revenues just so you have 16. It doesn't make sense.
Now if you added a Texas as an equal member then you would have a net revenue gain. At this point I don't see Texas willing to join as truly an equal member. Schools like Oklahoma and Kansas could result in a net gain but they at the moment aren't available. Expanding just to expand is not going to happen, the presidents aren't going to give away tens of millions of dollars for some fans to have some sense of balance and an NFL style playoff system.
And I refer you to: none of that means a damn thing.
I can't speak for anyone else but no, I don't. For one thing it would eventually become an issue of revenue.
If you want competitive football it does.
I'm done with this argument. I've repeatedly pointed out that only two teams would be worthwhile and neither is coming to the Pac 12. It's like I'm talking to a brick wall. "But what if everybody else is at 16 teams?"
IT DOESNT MATTER IF EVERY OTHER CONFERENCE IS AT 16 TEAMS. How many times do I have to point that out? A 16 team Pac 12 without OU and UT is far less attractive than a 12 team Pac 12 team as its presently constructed. Throwing out chicken little drama hissy fits worrying about what the SEC does always leaves out these simple facts.
So go on and get all exercised about conference expansion. I'll watch the idiocy from the sidelines.
IT DOESNT MATTER IF EVERY OTHER CONFERENCE IS AT 16 TEAMS. How many times do I have to point that out? A 16 team Pac 12 without OU and UT is far less attractive than a 12 team Pac 12 team as its presently constructed. Throwing out chicken little drama hissy fits worrying about what the SEC does always leaves out these simple facts.
So go on and get all exercised about conference expansion. I'll watch the idiocy from the sidelines.
You may not like it or agree with it but it will happen. Change is not always what you want but there will always be change. It is the constant. That and the drive for mo money!
Money and exposure mean nothing? Hahaha
This is the weirdest argument I have heard in a while.
And outside of UT and OU what teams out there could the PAC add that would bring exposure and money that comes close to matching the portion of league revenues they would get?
When you convince yourself there are two and only two options, unrealistic ones at that (again, according to you), I cannot help you.
well, let's just pretend we live in the make-believe world of "if we ignore conference expansion, then it won't bother us."
here's how that eventually plays out:
other conferences seize the initiative and put together formidable super-conferences that are able to garner huge tv contracts.
some p12 teams will try to bail to said super conferences so that they can get a bigger rev share.
with the benefit of huge tv contracts and participation in the new super playoff system, fan and media interest turns away from the p12.
recruits, wowed by the prospect of playing in a super conference and all the perks that entails become less interested in the p12.
the p12 becomes even more regional and provincial and even easier to ignore.
finally, the last holdout powers (my guess would be stanford, cal, usc, and ucla) realize the end is near and seek to land in other conferences.
the p12 ceases to exist.
but, let's all just tell ourselves that standing still is a viable option in an accelerating race for tv money, mind share, and recruits.
here's how that eventually plays out:
other conferences seize the initiative and put together formidable super-conferences that are able to garner huge tv contracts.
some p12 teams will try to bail to said super conferences so that they can get a bigger rev share.
with the benefit of huge tv contracts and participation in the new super playoff system, fan and media interest turns away from the p12.
recruits, wowed by the prospect of playing in a super conference and all the perks that entails become less interested in the p12.
the p12 becomes even more regional and provincial and even easier to ignore.
finally, the last holdout powers (my guess would be stanford, cal, usc, and ucla) realize the end is near and seek to land in other conferences.
the p12 ceases to exist.
but, let's all just tell ourselves that standing still is a viable option in an accelerating race for tv money, mind share, and recruits.
OU by themselves wouldn't be until 2025 though right? The only way this gets accelerated is if Texas and OU leave together I thought.
They both leave, just not to the same conference.
It's gonna happen, only question is, who will it be and when?
13 pages and Luke makes the best and most succinct summarizing statement of the entire thread with a single sentence?
I don't agree. Those are 2 of the most valuable programs in the country. Maybe both in the top 5. I have trouble believing that the Pac-12 is so valuable as a conference that it takes a program at that level to move the needle in a positive direction. Especially in consideration of the fact that a MWC or AAC program would not get an equal share for a long time.
If the Big-12 surprises everyone and goes to 14 teams expanding into the mountain time zone with BYU and/or CSU/Air Force, it will be a massive failure by Scott. If there is any question they will go to 14 teams Scott needs to try as hard as he can to add Houston and one other team to remain stable and not be forced to pick between SDSU, UNLV, Boise State and New Mexico.
Wait what? Big12 adding CSU is a massive failure on Scott's part?
on a personal note I wouldn't mind SDSU and UNLV added .... they make awesome road trips but on a financial level don't see much value for the PAC
If the Big-12 goes to 14 teams and invades the time zones the Pac-12 owns right now. That would mean adding a combo of Cincy, BYU, Houston and CSU/Air Force. If they go to 12 teams then it doesn't really change anything and it is a good move by Scott to wait for 2025 but if they add 4 teams and especially those 4 teams it seems like it brings a little stability.
Pac12 most certainly doesn't want BYU or CSU.