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Heartless bastard.
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CSU stadium
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Heartless bastard.
One thing CSU does have in it's favor is some pretty significant population growth in Northern Colorado. Lots and lots of new construction taking place from Johnstown to Windsor and all points West to the foothills. It wouldn't be totally shocking if there were well over a half million people in that square of real estate in the next 5-6 years.
What was the population in Northern Colorado 15-20 years ago vs. now, what was CSU's attendance? Population growth has not translated into growth in interest in their program.
CUFan
Welcome back
Yeah, but they've sucked ass for nearly all of that time too, with only a brief window of being competitive/good. When they were competitive people showed up in much better numbers. People like a winner.
It could be a good long term play for a conference if CSU continues to invest in the program.
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I doubt the PAC 12 would expand to include SDSU, BSU or UNLV. The conference members place too high an emphasis on academics to bring those schools in. But CSU could squeeze in the bottom of the conference with WSU and ASU and not stick out like a sore thumb. Just one thing to keep in mind.
Expansion isn't about academics, it is about TV revenue. CSU doesn't generate any. UNLV or New Mexico would be far more valuable from a revenue standpoint.
CSU offers absolutely nothing for the Pac 12. They might offer something for the Big12.
Somebody tell me why the BIG 12 would want to expand at this point? Honestly, I can't think of a single reason.
Big12 (with Texas) will NEVER add Houston. Why would they? They already own the Houston market. What additional value would UH bring?
CsquaredCC
Well-Known Member
The focus on an invite for CSU to the Power 5 is misplaced at this point. It certainly is a long term goal, but there are no guarantees and most sensible people realize that. The big realignment storm in my mind is coming in the next 4-5 years within the so called "Gang of 5 Conferences". Specifically, I think you will see a merger of the best from the AAC, MWC plus BYU who are committed to offering student athletes the same benefits as the larger conferences. CSU's stadium project is as much about keeping up with schools like Houston as it is about angling for any P5 invite. The stadium project is critical because it would likely ensure that CSU would be included in that realignment scenario. This, to me, is the most critical short term realignment scenario that no one really focuses on in the context of the stadium discussion.
Why would it? "Well CSU just built a brand spanking new 36k stadium They're in"-Said no one ever
It does no such thing.
I hope you get it built, but don't be under any illusions that building it will ensure anything other than a nice facility for the players and fans. It won't move the dial one millimeter in terms of conference realignment.
CSquaredCC is absolutely correct.
He didn't say that the stadium ensured an invite from the Pac-12 or Big 12.
He said that there is a move afoot for certain non-P5 programs (particularly the wealthiest ADs from the AAC and MWC + BYU) to form a conference that would meet all of the standards set in the current P5 conferences in terms of value of scholarships, other benefits, rules, etc.
And that if such a conference formed, CSU needs the stadium project to ensure that it is one of the members. Such a conference could very well end up making things a P6 in terms of playoffs and voting while working under what would be sure to be a lesser media deal than the other P5 conferences have but still a hell of a lot more than these non-P5 FBS schools get from their current deals.
He didn't say that the stadium ensured an invite from the Pac-12 or Big 12.
He said that there is a move afoot for certain non-P5 programs (particularly the wealthiest ADs from the AAC and MWC + BYU) to form a conference that would meet all of the standards set in the current P5 conferences in terms of value of scholarships, other benefits, rules, etc.
And that if such a conference formed, CSU needs the stadium project to ensure that it is one of the members. Such a conference could very well end up making things a P6 in terms of playoffs and voting while working under what would be sure to be a lesser media deal than the other P5 conferences have but still a hell of a lot more than these non-P5 FBS schools get from their current deals.
CsquaredCC
Well-Known Member
I think CSU is in a pretty good spot in the realignment scenario I am talking about regardless of the stadium. Obviously, there are no guarantees and maybe I overstated it. However, it doesn't change the fact that facilities play a major role in the long-term health of any program. A new stadium certainly won't hurt CSU's prospects and I do believe would play a positive role in the evaluation of CSU's overall profile when that time comes.
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sounds to me like the old pipe dream of having the MWC "move up" to BCS status. Highly unlikely, IMO.
As an example, the P6 from a merger (probably under the banner of the AAC), might look like this:
East
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Memphis
Tulane
Tulsa
West
Houston
SMU
CSU
BYU
Boise State
UNLV
SDSU
Fresno State
Or it might be only 12 teams. Or as many as 20 with two divisions playing 9 games in their division and finishing with a championship game. Some of this depends on what shakes out with whether the current P5 stand pat or expand.
If, for example, the current P5 saw this as a threat they might do something like this:
Big 12 goes from its current 10 teams to 12 with UCF and USF. Or 14 with BYU and Cincinnati.
Pac-12 goes from 12 to 14 through Boise State and SDSU. Maybe to 16 by also adding Houston and SMU.
Maybe the ACC takes UConn.
The P5 conferences are chasing the money. I don't think for a second that they would stand by and allow the pie to be split 6 ways when they have a chance to increase the value of their own media contracts while also keeping the pie as a 5-way split.
East
UCF
USF
East Carolina
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Memphis
Tulane
Tulsa
West
Houston
SMU
CSU
BYU
Boise State
UNLV
SDSU
Fresno State
Or it might be only 12 teams. Or as many as 20 with two divisions playing 9 games in their division and finishing with a championship game. Some of this depends on what shakes out with whether the current P5 stand pat or expand.
If, for example, the current P5 saw this as a threat they might do something like this:
Big 12 goes from its current 10 teams to 12 with UCF and USF. Or 14 with BYU and Cincinnati.
Pac-12 goes from 12 to 14 through Boise State and SDSU. Maybe to 16 by also adding Houston and SMU.
Maybe the ACC takes UConn.
The P5 conferences are chasing the money. I don't think for a second that they would stand by and allow the pie to be split 6 ways when they have a chance to increase the value of their own media contracts while also keeping the pie as a 5-way split.
CsquaredCC
Well-Known Member
Its not really about "moving up" any longer. Its more about the non-power teams coming together to form a conference capable of maintaining a strength of schedule that allows an outside shot at a playoff bid.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. A major new conference would likely have to from. The Big 12-1-1-2+2 isn't going to 12 teams anytime soon, and if they do it will be a Central time zone team. They already have a geographical outlier in WVU...they aren't going west.
The P12 is not going to add teams other than those that might be lured from the B12, and I don't see that happening either. CSU is sandwiched between to P5 conferences geographically.
The P12 is not going to add teams other than those that might be lured from the B12, and I don't see that happening either. CSU is sandwiched between to P5 conferences geographically.
CsquaredCC
Well-Known Member
This is one of the scenarios I have seen, although I think New Mexico would be in before Tulsa.
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The realightment will happen, just unclear how it will all shake out.
That conference is mostly trash.... I don't see it. I see it as much more likely that the few valuable schools in that conference are picked up to round out the P5 and finalize market reach.
And as you noted, I don't see anyway that the P5 lets a conference like that sit at the big boys table.
i believe the power 5 will all go to 16 teams. i believe also that those left-behind will try to form a 6th power conference of 16 teams. i believe they will succeed. that's 96 teams in the top division and that's probably just about right. there is likely to be some movement of teams amongst the power 5 conferences too, but the end scenario plays out the same:
the p5 are going to force through the changes they want. the left-behind with means after the next round of expansion/realignment will consolidate into a 6th conference. there will be a conference championship game in each of the 6 power conferences. the 6 league champs will get auto-bids to the playoffs. i expect 10 other teams will make the playoffs from a selection committee bid for a 16 team playoff for the national championship. the bowls will be folded into 2 categories: part of the playoff process and "just for fun" for non-playoff teams. most of the latter will not survive.
of the 117 or so current d-1 football programs, the ones who don't make the cut into the 96 will drop football or drop down a division.
this is what's going to happen over the next decade or so. the professionalizing of college football is accelerating. it cannot be stopped.
insert your screams of terror here.
the p5 are going to force through the changes they want. the left-behind with means after the next round of expansion/realignment will consolidate into a 6th conference. there will be a conference championship game in each of the 6 power conferences. the 6 league champs will get auto-bids to the playoffs. i expect 10 other teams will make the playoffs from a selection committee bid for a 16 team playoff for the national championship. the bowls will be folded into 2 categories: part of the playoff process and "just for fun" for non-playoff teams. most of the latter will not survive.
of the 117 or so current d-1 football programs, the ones who don't make the cut into the 96 will drop football or drop down a division.
this is what's going to happen over the next decade or so. the professionalizing of college football is accelerating. it cannot be stopped.
insert your screams of terror here.
Agree. Would depend on who stepped up (or could step up). Probably some surprises in there. For example, it wouldn't surprise me if the Wyoming legislature increased funding to allow the jump. They really support their school. But, honestly, it makes more sense for a school like Wyoming (given its population) to be playing in the Big Sky.
Honestly, now that I think about it, a re-alignment of non-P5 D1 that merged parts of the MWC, Big Sky and Summit into a Northwest Conference stretching from the Dakotas through Washington and down through Colorado and Utah would be a hell of a strong conference.
If CSU got locked out of P5 (or the P6 approach), I honestly think that you guys would have a blast in a football conference consisting of those schools. Some are the elites form FCS (E. Washington, NDSU, SDSU, Montana, Montana State) and then there a bunch of really good mid-majors in there (Utah State, Nevada, etc).
I bring this up because I think we might be moving to 5 NCAA divisions for football.
Division 1 as a P5 that includes between 70 and 80 teams (either 14 or 16 team conferences - maybe P6 with 96 as Liver suggests).
Division 2 as a combination of what remains of current FBS along with the best from FCS (current FBS rules)
Division 3 as the current FCS that don't have the resources or inclination to play in Division 2 (plus best from current D2)
Division 4 as the current Division 2 (plus best of current D3 and maybe NAIA)
Division 5 as the current Division 3
btw, in such a setup I would be ok with the D1 teams playing D2 teams in the non-conference and think they should play at least 1 of those games every year.