I'm not getting why people are concerned about the game at Arrowhead especially when it's going to have that neutral field feeling plus the Buffs have dominated on the road in conference play.
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CU at Kansas (Arrowhead Stadium) - November 23 - 1:30 PM on FOX
- Thread starter The Alabaster Yak
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I'm not getting why people are concerned about the game at Arrowhead especially when it's going to have that neutral field feeling plus the Buffs have dominated on the road in conference play.
they have knocked off 2 good teams and are a better team than their record. and a quiet neutral field could lead to a slow start. I think our Buffs will take care of business. but, the cumulative trauma of being a CU fan leaves a mark.
also starting to worry a little about asu. they are freaking hot, hot, hot. they might sneak into the champ game against us.
I still love the current Mandel playoff projections. he has us with a first round bye as the conf. champ. a first round bye and catch lightning and win a playoff game and this thing goes from rocket speed to warp speed.
what a fun season so far.
We can't, and don't want to, expect to play teams like OkSU or Arizona every week.
I want CU to play tough opponents from now on, and I want CU to win out. If we get into playoff, most likely we are going to play against teams like Olemiss, Bama, Georgia, OSU or Oregon. Every single one of them is going to kill Kansas/ASU.
Let's face the toughest teams in the Big 12 head-on. This challenging stretch will only make CU stronger and better prepared for high-stakes matchups. We don't want to end up like TCU in 2022 or FSU in 2023, becoming the nation's laughingstock.
I want CU to play tough opponents from now on, and I want CU to win out. If we get into playoff, most likely we are going to play against teams like Olemiss, Bama, Georgia, OSU or Oregon. Every single one of them is going to kill Kansas/ASU.
Let's face the toughest teams in the Big 12 head-on. This challenging stretch will only make CU stronger and better prepared for high-stakes matchups. We don't want to end up like TCU in 2022 or FSU in 2023, becoming the nation's laughingstock.
Most of the analytics sites people quote here had CU as a bad team with probabilities to lose 10 or 11 games. This team is not subject to stupid analytics.
Doesn't matter how hot ASU is. If CU continues to win we are in.
A CU, BYU, and Utah win this weekend clinches our spot in the CCG.
241Volcanos
Well-Known Member
What’s the KC-Buff fan connection?
GRM
I'm a ****ty troll
Yak--agree with you 100%. The analytics are not about the eye test. In fact, I don't think it is even an analysis a current roster, who is playing in the 2 deep, or how well your team is playing.
I looked into the ESPN FPI criteria and a big weighted factor is actually: the program's (W-L/ranking) history and opponents performance looking back many years in weighting Win/Loss. Then they (the algorithm?) tries to balance it out with records and maybe some other factors. Also, they weigh heavily on pre-season projections (beat Utah/Arizona in week 3, Tier 1 win) and recruiting history (I think this is roster quality indicator). However, I think the recruiting is skewed to HS recruiting since the TP is still evolving.
CU and B12 get dinged b/c: (1) we have not been good before this (1-11 + many other disappointing seasons); (2) the B12 is upside down this year in terms of pre-season projections with the worst projected/historical performance programs rising to the top; and the better projected teams being down. Kansas State is the only team that is close to their projection; and (3) since Prime we do not recruit many HS athletes.
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Me believes that this is the Complete Game, Coach Sanders says he's been waiting for.
Buff_nc
Well-Known Member
Analytical approaches have to adapt their baselines. It is not only Colorado that prediction models have misjudged. Player movement via the portal and schematic uncertainties make it much tougher to predict outcomes.
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No way KU scores 31 unless we play with our food. We are more focused on the road, so I feel like we will be sharp this Saturday. No more focusing on Travis or Shedeur, this is truly a team now
GRM
I'm a ****ty troll
Because as we’ve continued to win, the stakes have grown. Kansas was a preseason favorite but their season hasn’t gone how they’d hoped. But they have knocked off two straight contenders and are on a roll. They have to win their last two to salvage a bowl birth. Kansas stands between us and the Big XII Championship game. Couple all of that with us that are also Broncos fans hate for Arrowhead!
Based on what data was available preseason, I'd guess that CU had 2 high probability wins, 4 high probability losses, and 6 that were coin flips to shaded against us.
Fair.
And a great case of having the very focused expertise we do lead to a lot of us making a nice payday better a season over on 5.5 or even teasing that up.
(BTW, I'm going to guess that if CU keeps it rolling this year that with all the money that gets bet on CU that they'll hit us with an o/u next year of at like 7.5 or 8.5 and it will be a tough one to bet heavy.)
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A few things about Colorado that are noteworthy:
1. Injuries in areas with less depth have been relatively infrequent. BYE week placements have been perfect for recovery.
2. Team has gotten near perfectly efficient output from each contributor who’s played significant minutes during conference play. In other words, nearly all players who are getting significant minutes are playing their B, B+, A-, A, and A+ game.
It's crazy how few players have stood out in a bad way other than OL.
Shiloh against KSU
Timmons against Utah.
Sheppard until UCF
I think our LBs had sub par games against KSU too.
I did not watch the Nebraska game
Of note here, Stoutmire has to play more. When he is on the field, the defense gets better in nearly every category.
I don't know if we'll be running more nickel than 4-3 against KU unless we get up. Same thing with OSU. Those teams are hoping to beat us with their run games.
Dude flashes all the time
I am wondering how much this says about the talent that was not being recognized before the transfer portal era. There must have been a ton of really good players on FCS rosters or sitting on the bench at P5 schools that now have a chance to shine.
I don’t think anyone saw how much more talent Indiana had accumulated over the offseason. I guess most of their players came from JMU?
It has to be tough to analyze.
When Livingston played him in the hybrid role last week, the defense was tough to beat. Interesting to see what happens schematically moving forward.
Daniels's running is going to be something we haven't had to deal with in a while.
Really? I feel like all we've dealt with this season is running games and running QBs
Stats that interest me:
Defense:
Offense:
That red zone battle between their O and our D is likely going to be decisive. We need to come up with some INTs as well.
Defense:
- FEI has Kansas as the 54th ranked D.
- They get after the QB some with 2.4 sacks per game.
- Their red zone D aint bad either - 36th in the country.
Offense:
- They are elite in protecting the QB. 6th in the nation and less than a sack per game given up.
- Kansas is 7th in the nation in 3d down conversions and they get 50% of them.
- Kansas has an elite red zone offense - 34 RZ attempts, 27 Tds, 6 FG. 33 out of 34 scores! 2d in the nation.
- Kansas averages 5.1 Yards per rush, good for 24th in the country.
- Kansas has solid yards per attempt too, 42 or so.
- QB rating Kansas is 79th -
That red zone battle between their O and our D is likely going to be decisive. We need to come up with some INTs as well.
??
Miller (NDSU), Johnson (KSU), Robertson (Baylor), Fifta (Arizona), & Jefferson (UCF) all have higher or equivalent rushing grades per PFF compared to Daniels at KU.
A month is a while.
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