CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[FLounder]

Colorado Pyriten Buffaloes

Amirite??????

 

[FLounder]

a decade in the pac12 has you bums hugging tree jokes too much.
We need to get back to our inner geologist

ie

“one might say our university is in a ROCKY situation”

 

[Hank]

Doesn't @Hank drink Yellow Tail?

Only with muddled jalapeños.

 

[ahoelsken]

Only with muddled jalapeños.

Well played.

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

FWIW but funny regardless:

One guy used Navigate's numbers and adjusted them post USC/ UCLA fallout to estimate what the new conferences would earn. His process led him to believing the 10-member PAC would be worth about $24.5 million per school per year. Today it got reported that ESPN's initial offer to the PAC was around $24.5 million per team/ per year. The guy who did that calculation pointed it out to Mandel, who promptly blocked him.

 

[BUFFset]

is our ESPN number $24.5M per each of us?

Comments are just dragging this guy's credibility. Even more so than the Nubs fan from the DP fckBailer hosted.

 

[White_Rabbit]

FWIW but funny regardless:

One guy used Navigate's numbers and adjusted them post USC/ UCLA fallout to estimate what the new conferences would earn. His process led him to believing the 10-member PAC would be worth about $24.5 million per school per year. Today it got reported that ESPN's initial offer to the PAC was around $24.5 million per team/ per year. The guy who did that calculation pointed it out to Mandel, who promptly blocked him.

Help me understand his response in the comments

P12 loses USC and UCLA, they go down by a big chunk, which makes sense. USC is their lone blue blood, UCLA was the clincher in losing LA

B12 loses UT and OU, both of their blue bloods, yet seemingly loses nothing and his response is:

Reasons apparently being

-There's still significant value in sports media rights (except the P12 apparently)
-they added additional markets (I mean, not exactly great markets? Doesn't say a hypothetical SDSU dump on any market they added save BYU?)
-dedicated fanbases (I don't really doubt B12 fanbases generally support their teams more, but that much more? In person attendance, sure, but P12 people want to chill at home with a bottle of Sauvignon, their tv ratings seem at least on par if not better? Maybe I've read too many Mandel articles on that last part)
-more conference games (again, I just fail to see how -OU -UT +BYU +Cinci +UCF +UH is somehow a net positive)

 

[skibum]

Help me understand his response in the comments

P12 loses USC and UCLA, they go down by a big chunk, which makes sense. USC is their lone blue blood, UCLA was the clincher in losing LA

B12 loses UT and OU, both of their blue bloods, yet seemingly loses nothing and his response is:

Reasons apparently being

-There's still significant value in sports media rights (except the P12 apparently)
-they added additional markets (I mean, not exactly great markets? Doesn't say a hypothetical SDSU dump on any market they added save BYU?)
-dedicated fanbases (I don't really doubt B12 fanbases generally support their teams more, but that much more? In person attendance, sure, but P12 people want to chill at home with a bottle of Sauvignon, their tv ratings seem at least on par if not better? Maybe I've read too many Mandel articles on that last part)
-more conference games (again, I just fail to see how -OU -UT +BYU +Cinci +UCF +UH is somehow a net positive)

I'm spitballing here, but I think the crux of it is the cable carriage rates in "home" markets vs "out of market" areas. The carriage rates are much lower in "out of market" areas than they are in "home" markets - which is part of reason losing LA as a market hurt the P12 so badly. But the B12 didn't lose any markets when UT and OU left, and they gained large markets in Houston and Florida (plus minor ones in Salt Lake and Cinci).

And the above is partially why adding SDSU would be beneficial for the P12 now, as I think LA & SD are considered one media market for these sorts of things.

(The above is also a good explanation for Rutgers and to a lesser extent Maryland & the B1G...)

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

Help me understand his response in the comments

P12 loses USC and UCLA, they go down by a big chunk, which makes sense. USC is their lone blue blood, UCLA was the clincher in losing LA

B12 loses UT and OU, both of their blue bloods, yet seemingly loses nothing and his response is:

Reasons apparently being

-There's still significant value in sports media rights (except the P12 apparently)
-they added additional markets (I mean, not exactly great markets? Doesn't say a hypothetical SDSU dump on any market they added save BYU?)
-dedicated fanbases (I don't really doubt B12 fanbases generally support their teams more, but that much more? In person attendance, sure, but P12 people want to chill at home with a bottle of Sauvignon, their tv ratings seem at least on par if not better? Maybe I've read too many Mandel articles on that last part)
-more conference games (again, I just fail to see how -OU -UT +BYU +Cinci +UCF +UH is somehow a net positive)

Just spitballing, but I think the crux of it is the PAC goes way down in part at least because it's assuming stay at 10, as opposed to the Big XII that added four competitive football teams in mostly new markets with mostly strong viewership/ fan engagement (I question UH but we'll see). Nonetheless, the estimates prior to the USC/ UCLA departure still had the Big XII earning less than the PAC and ACC in the future despite earning more the past several years, clearly acknowledging the blow that UT and OU were.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

There is a 0.0% chance that losing UT and OU and diluting the share by 2 more schools gives each school an extra $8m+ per year. In market or out of market carrier fees or not, those two programs accounted for 75% of the conferences value.

@skibum if your explanation was true, the B1G would have already added Houston and UCF. The most likely explanation is that Navigate is talking out of their assholes.

 

[hokiehead]

There is a 0.0 chance that losing UT and OU and diluting the share by 2 more schools gives each school an extra $8m+ per year. In market or out of market carrier fees or not, those two programs accounted for 75% of the conferences value.

@skibum if your explanation was true, the B1G would have already added Houston and UCF. The most likely explanation is that Navigate is talking out of their assholes.

Me thinks the previous control was poorly negotiated by one party.

 

[Matt]

Cliff notes if this thread need a half a chapter in the history books about the end of college football.

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

There is a 0.0% chance that losing UT and OU and diluting the share by 2 more schools gives each school an extra $8m+ per year. In market or out of market carrier fees or not, those two programs accounted for 75% of the conferences value.

@skibum if your explanation was true, the B1G would have already added Houston and UCF. The most likely explanation is that Navigate is talking out of their assholes.

It doesn't give them an "extra" $8 million per year, because it is astronomically lower than it would have been if UT and OU had stayed.

 

[SINKRATZ]

UA and ASU share the same board of regents?

Doesn’t that pretty much invalidate these tweets about CU and UA moving to the Big12 either alone or with some other combination of UW, UO, Cal or Stanford? No way that BOR allows UA and ASU to be split up especially if it orphans one school in a dying conference.

 

[ShakeandBlake]

Yeah but what 5 are you going to take? All of them have major warts.

• OK State is 2nd fiddle in a smaller state, and with no major media market. Don't discount the fact that their HC is a far-right wackadoo. The last two coaches that were that way in the P12 got run off pretty quickly.
• TCU has success and a major media market. But they're not a major player in their market, and they are a religious school.
• Baylor is a combination of the two (small market religious school) with success. Small-ish following
• BYU would make the most sense if it weren't for the problems with scheduling and religious school.
• WVU is a good brand, but it's all the way on the other side of the country.
• ISU might make sense, actually, but Iowa is pretty small and they are clearly the second program in that state.
• KState and TT are in TINY markets
• Kansas doesn't give a **** about football
• Cincy, UCF, and Houston are tiny G5 schools.

I can see maybe making a case for OK State, ISU, TCU, but after that it gets dicey to me.

What is the case against a Texas Tech while trying to make an argument for a TCU? To my understanding TTU is behind only the behemoths that are UT and TAMU. In the least they’ve certainly got more claim to the DFW market than TCU does. Not sure that that changes much of what you said but the point is that football is driving all of this. I’d be weary to discount the state with the most rabidly obsessed football culture and when assessing the options, the 3rd most commanding brand there makes much more sense than any small religious or private school.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

It doesn't give them an "extra" $8 million per year, because it is astronomically lower than it would have been if UT and OU had stayed.

They aren’t going to be making more than they were making with UT and OU just because it’s the year 2025. Bet

 

[J.R. Ewing]

What is the case against a Texas Tech while trying to make an argument for a TCU? To my understanding TTU is behind only the behemoths that are UT and TAMU. In the least they’ve certainly got more claim to the DFW market than TCU does. Not sure that that changes much of what you said but the point is that football is driving all of this. I’d be weary to discount the state with the most rabidly obsessed football culture and when assessing the options, the 3rd most commanding brand there makes much more sense than any small religious or private school.

Tech has more alumni. TCU has been the better program of late and isn't 5 hours away.

 

[manhattanbuff]

The Big 12 lost big brands, but they didn’t lose any big TV markets. Their additions give them access to some decently well sized markets as well. It’s a pretty major consideration when comparing the dropoffs between them and the Pac-12 losing power programs.

 

[Buffnik]

What is the case against a Texas Tech while trying to make an argument for a TCU? To my understanding TTU is behind only the behemoths that are UT and TAMU. In the least they’ve certainly got more claim to the DFW market than TCU does. Not sure that that changes much of what you said but the point is that football is driving all of this. I’d be weary to discount the state with the most rabidly obsessed football culture and when assessing the options, the 3rd most commanding brand there makes much more sense than any small religious or private school.

Pac members would rather expand with TTU (R1 vs R2) + (large public vs small religious).

DFW matters, but TTU has large alumni bases in DFW and San Antonio. Them plus Houston would probably be more readily supported by Kliavkoff's bosses. Also, if we took TCU then the Big 12 would probably add SMU and totally dilute the DFW market value.

 

[White_Rabbit]

The only solution here is to fire CSULB and CSUF football back up

Gotta get back in dat LA market

 

[4BienemyTDs]

I wouldn’t count Nebraska out yet with NIL. Those corn farmers can probably pay the players well.

They paid them well in 1995-1997!

 

[Liver]

The Big 12 lost big brands, but they didn’t lose any big TV markets. Their additions give them access to some decently well sized markets as well. It’s a pretty major consideration when comparing the dropoffs between them and the Pac-12 losing power programs.

what? you mean other than texas and oklahoma which has a **** ton of viewers and fans and alums in texas, which last i checked was one of the largest markets in the country?

other than that.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

The Big 12 lost big brands, but they didn’t lose any big TV markets. Their additions give them access to some decently well sized markets as well. It’s a pretty major consideration when comparing the dropoffs between them and the Pac-12 losing power programs.

I’m not even suggesting they won’t make more than the Pac. That very well could be the case, but the value that UT and OU brought to that conference is being understated in this discussion.

Also, is what matters to the networks media markets or brands? It doesn’t seem there is a coherent argument for one over the other and is mostly being used as a way to support or tear down a given programs chances at getting an invite to the P2

 

[Liver]

FWIW but funny regardless:

One guy used Navigate's numbers and adjusted them post USC/ UCLA fallout to estimate what the new conferences would earn. His process led him to believing the 10-member PAC would be worth about $24.5 million per school per year. Today it got reported that ESPN's initial offer to the PAC was around $24.5 million per team/ per year. The guy who did that calculation pointed it out to Mandel, who promptly blocked him.

pretty much willing to wager that the pac, if it holds together, pulls in the 30s. deal doesn't work otherwise. and there are lots of very incented folks trying to make it work--- it still sucks and maybe we draw more from the remnant big 12, but i do not believe there is any way a deal gets done at that price point. question i am asking now is whether espn is trying to low ball the pac to force the exodus to the b12. if so, so be it.

i will be fully engaged with our knuckle dragging mouth breather cousins in the b12. sure. why not? whatever. we are ****ed regardless. give me some sister wives and Appalachian inbreeding and throw in some lubbock and stillwater and ames. holy ****, it is like a ****ing murderer's row of stupid. fine. deal me in.

if they pay us more than than the reported 24mm, i think the bond between us will be quite solid and built upon a proper foundation. like any prenuptial agreement...

w00t. we rock.

 

[Hank]

The only solution here is to fire CSULB and CSUF football back up

Gotta get back in dat LA market

Remember the Titans!

 

[ShakeandBlake]

Tech has more alumni. TCU has been the better program of late and isn't 5 hours away.

Oh got it. I wasn’t under the impression that this all was about program success as of late considering Texas, USC and UCLA just got picked up over much more successful programs. I get your point on distance but I don’t think that really matters when the alumni (bulk of CFB fans for a school) mostly live in the markets you’re talking about. A quick search brought up this this tweet mentioning that TTU has 50k alumni living in DFW alone while TCU has 90k alumni period. Bigger schools with mid to decent sized brands are always going to be stronger than smaller sized religiously based schools not named Norte Dame or BYU. Interests in these small time religious and private institutions is beyond frustrating when trying to have a serious conversation of sustainability and vitality.

 

[Hank]

what? you mean other than texas and oklahoma which has a **** ton of viewers and fans and alums in texas, which last i checked was one of the largest markets in the country?

other than that.

Why don't you both find a room. And you can feed each other hot take sandwiches until the lights go out.

 

[Bison]

UA and ASU share the same board of regents?

Doesn’t that pretty much invalidate these tweets about CU and UA moving to the Big12 either alone or with some other combination of UW, UO, Cal or Stanford? No way that BOR allows UA and ASU to be split up especially if it orphans one school in a dying conference.

Or they could merge the two schools and they would be called the Devil Cats…LOL.

We are living in unprecedented times so anything can happen.

 

[Liver]

Why don't you both find a room. And you can feed each other hot take sandwiches until the lights go out.

dear hank-- calm down. i know you have a woody about the bi12 and if that is where we land, fine, but let's just pretend to process the info before we decide you are correct. ok? thanks. everyone.

ps-- your interactions with @ahoelsken are there own bit of special.

this is where i would ordinarily say something horrible like DIE IN A FIRE but i am working on my rage issues.

 

[Hank]

dear hank-- calm down. i know you have a woody for the bi12 and if that is where we land, fine, but let's just pretend to process the info before we decide you are correct. ok? thanks. everyone.

You have me confused for someone else. I think I have been pretty clear that we should let Cousin Eddie have the Big12 all to himself.