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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

skibum said:
One thing that I think some folks are missing:

The B1G now has two teams that play home games in the Pacific time zone. If that late time slot on Saturday really is worth anything, they can take a slice of that pie too.

If I'm a network programming guy and I can choose between Michigan State at USC or Stanford at Oregon to fill my late slot, I know which one I'm going with.
Click to expand...
The B1G isn't going to subject their fanbase to a 9:30 or 10:30 local kickoff. I would bet the B1G gets exactly one game/year in that slot and it's USC vs UCLA.

This is also the ESPN 1030 time slot. Big FOX doesn't do that (at least to this point), and ESPN isn't getting any B1G games go foward.
 
Not Sure said:
I get it. I has occurred to me that there are a lot of schools in the B1G and SEC that will simply never be able to compete. Like, ever. Schools like Rutgers, Nebraska, Indiana, Mississippi State, Vandy, South Carolina. These schools are getting paid stupid money but aren’t at any advantage with regards to their peers. They’re basically stuck. Forever. So would we rather be where we are - getting paid less in a conference we can compete in; or where Mississippi State is - getting paid more but losing every week?
I have my own ideas on that, but I get the sense that there’s folks here on both sides of that question.
Click to expand...
Here's where I am at on your question: we are likely to be about as good at football as our administration wants us to be (within limits - say regularly ranked and in the top 10 in special seasons) - mainly because we don't have any of the inherent negatives that holds NU back.

If we had an administration that gave a **** about winning, we would be a winning in program in the B1G, or the PAC.

Since we do not have an administration that cares about winning, we will suck in the B1G or the PAC.

We're not going to compete in the PAC with our current administration, no matter how badly the PAC sucks, we're going to be below average.

So, might as well get paid, because at least then, if we ever do get an administration that gives a **** - we could win big.
 
skibum said:
Here's where I am at on your question: we are likely to be about as good at football as our administration wants us to be (within limits - say regularly ranked and in the top 10 in special seasons) - mainly because we don't have any of the inherent negatives that holds NU back.

If we had an administration that gave a **** about winning, we would be a winning in program in the B1G, or the PAC.

Since we do not have an administration that cares about winning, we will suck in the B1G or the PAC.

We're not going to compete in the PAC with our current administration, no matter how badly the PAC sucks, we're going to be below average.

So, might as well get paid, because at least then, if we ever do get an administration that gives a **** - we could win big.
Click to expand...

If we continue to suck over the next decade (highly probable) do they still invite us to the big kids table?
 
So, after 150 pages, we know:

1. Anyone in the SEC or BIG will be receiving $50 million+ in revenue over teams in other leagues.
2. CU is not joining either the SEC or BIG in this current expansion round.
3. Staying in the PAC or leaving for the Big 12 is a pick ‘em proposition depending on what things you value
4. CU will inevitably **** things up

Sound about right?
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
The B1G isn't going to subject their fanbase to a 9:30 or 10:30 local kickoff. I would bet the B1G gets exactly one game/year in that slot and it's USC vs UCLA.

This is also the ESPN 1030 time slot. Big FOX doesn't do that (at least to this point), and ESPN isn't getting any B1G games go foward.
Click to expand...
If the money is there to play football in that time slot, the B1G will fill it with a few games a year. They won't take 100% of the slots, but they could somewhat easily (again presuming it's a valuable slot) take 1/3 of them. It's only 4 games, so two each for USC and UCLA - and, it doesn't even have to be a conference game. They could do one OOC for each, and then one conference game.
 
Creebuzz said:
So, after 150 pages, we know:

1. Anyone in the SEC or BIG will be receiving $50 million+ in revenue over teams in other leagues.
2. CU is not joining either the SEC or BIG in this current expansion round.
3. Staying in the PAC or leaving for the Big 12 is a pick ‘em proposition depending on what things you value
4. CU will inevitably **** things up

Sound about right?
Click to expand...
you forgot:

???
Profit!
 
www.espn.com

NFL enters media streaming market with 'NFL+'

The NFL is making its move into offering its own media streaming platform, announcing that "NFL+" has launched on Monday.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

NFL+ is launching today. I know the P12N is a four letter word that is not viewed favorably but the conference could launch its own streaming channel this year if allowed (devil in the details of the P12 media rights).
 
White_Rabbit said:


perusing B12 twitter, they all seem mad because games on FS1 and ESPN+ rate that much worse, and B12 teams have been on those two more than P12. And P12 after dark is a totes unfair advantage and they can dedicate BYU to BYUafterdark games until the end of eternity and capture that market
Click to expand...

So do UO and UDub have leverage or not?
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
But Mandel addresses most of that in his article and I think the main point is valid no matter what: The 10:30 ET slot is valuable and there's only one conference that can offer that inventory.
Click to expand...
My friend,

1) he doesn't address most of it all and answered "but why should I change it" when asked about it on Twitter
2) his point isn't valid because it isn't correcting for anything, thus it's a completely faulty statistical analysis
3) that the PAC owns a late time slot doesn't matter at all if the goal here is to figure out if it makes sense for the Big XII to take PAC teams, because they would then get those time slots. Thus, again, what matters is who performs better when all is equal/ you've corrected for bias
4) Mandel's sloppy job makes it readily apparent he doesn't understand how do set up this type of analysis
5) the companies that make millions doing this for a living roundly dispute Mandel to an extreme degree
 
Creebuzz said:
So, after 150 pages, we know:

1. Anyone in the SEC or BIG will be receiving $50 million+ in revenue over teams in other leagues.
2. CU is not joining either the SEC or BIG in this current expansion round.
3. Staying in the PAC or leaving for the Big 12 is a pick ‘em proposition depending on what things you value
4. CU will inevitably **** things up

Sound about right?
Click to expand...
Yep...
 
skibum said:
If the money is there to play football in that time slot, the B1G will fill it with a few games a year. They won't take 100% of the slots, but they could somewhat easily (again presuming it's a valuable slot) take 1/3 of them. It's only 4 games, so two each for USC and UCLA - and, it doesn't even have to be a conference game. They could do one OOC for each, and then one conference game.
Click to expand...
Well, let's make sure we qualify all of this... It's a valuable slot relative to the scraps the two conferences have left over for everyone else. It's not all that valuable in the grand scheme. If Fox was interested in that time slot, they would have put USC vs Oregon there in the past when they have held the Pac 12 Tier 1 rights.

Regardless, the B1G is not going to subject Michigan, MSU, Ohio State or Penn State to kicking off at 10:30pm (their local time) and I would bet Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska tell them to pound sand too. Anything else from a conference game perspective isn't going to draw the ratings to put that game on the Big FOX network. USC vs UCLA seems like the only one that would fit that slot, IMO, and why would the B1G want that matchup basically being relegated back to the Pac 12 days where nobody out East watches?

This is a scenario, IMO, that is certainly a possibility like everything else, but very unlikely.
 
BerkeleyBuff said:
My friend,

1) he doesn't address most of it all and answered "but why should I change it" when asked about it on Twitter
2) his point isn't valid because it isn't correcting for anything, thus it's a completely faulty statistical analysis
3) that the PAC owns a late time slot doesn't matter at all if the goal here is to figure out if it makes sense for the Big XII to take PAC teams, because they would then get those time slots. Thus, again, what matters is who performs better when all is equal/ you've corrected for bias
4) Mandel's sloppy job makes it readily apparent he doesn't understand how do set up this type of analysis
5) the companies that make millions doing this for a living roundly dispute Mandel to an extreme degree
Click to expand...
What should he have “corrected for”?

can you post some of the analyses MR ruined in 6)

thanks.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
The B1G isn't going to subject their fanbase to a 9:30 or 10:30 local kickoff. I would bet the B1G gets exactly one game/year in that slot and it's USC vs UCLA.

This is also the ESPN 1030 time slot. Big FOX doesn't do that (at least to this point), and ESPN isn't getting any B1G games go foward.
Click to expand...
Depends on who the opponent is. Let's take the brands (tOSU, Michigan, Penn State, etc.) out. Those are Big Noon/Saturday Night Football type games. Let's also take out Rutgers/MD-I think they'll avoid cross country travel as much as they can.

Can you see the Big 10 putting a Northwestern, Illinois, or Minnesota in that slot? I wouldn't rule it out.
 
ahoelsken said:
Depends on who the opponent is. Let's take the brands (tOSU, Michigan, Penn State, etc.) out. Those are Big Noon/Saturday Night Football type games. Let's also take out Rutgers/MD-I think they'll avoid cross country travel as much as they can.

Can you see the Big 10 putting a Northwestern, Illinois, or Minnesota in that slot? I wouldn't rule it out.
Click to expand...
Are you proposing a UCLA home game before NW, Minny or IL in this time slot? Or Two non-WC teams in this slot?
 
I can definitely see a lot of UCLA after dark games in the future in that time slot

It also seems like the end game is the B1G just adding a bunch of the current P12 teams and doing their own Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night thing. Obviously premium games will get better slots, but that seems like a good spot for the UCLA vs Illinois type games of the world. Relegating a single team or two to those time slots seems like it'd upset teams over the long haul. That's why I laugh when the B12 fans are like, well we'll just put BYU on BYU after dark duty until the end of time, problem solved!
 
ahoelsken said:
Depends on who the opponent is. Let's take the brands (tOSU, Michigan, Penn State, etc.) out. Those are Big Noon/Saturday Night Football type games. Let's also take out Rutgers/MD-I think they'll avoid cross country travel as much as they can.

Can you see the Big 10 putting a Northwestern, Illinois, or Minnesota in that slot? I wouldn't rule it out.
Click to expand...
A USC Northwestern game at 1030 ET would get destroyed by an Oregon vs UW game at that time. People in the CTZ and ETZ aren't watching those games unless their teams are involved and the brand name teams aren't playing in it.

USC became arguably the 2nd or 3rd biggest brand in the B1G. The conference isn't going to relegate them to a timeslot half the country isn't interested in. As I said, it's a valuable time slot for the scraps, not for the big time programs.

UCLA might play a bit in that time slot if FOX decides it, but UCLA doesn't draw well, so there's a good chance that game is second best as well.
 
BerkeleyBuff said:
See my post up thread
Click to expand...
There is no need to correct for time slot, nor platform, nor geography, etc. The whole point is viewership and value. The p12 has an inherent advantage over B12 in terms of geography that supports less competitive, higher viewership game. That’s the whole point of the article.

my question stands on wanting to see expert data which dispute Mandel data. Can you post.
 
hawg1 said:
There is no need to correct for time slot, nor platform, nor geography, etc. The whole point is viewership and value. The p12 has an inherent advantage over B12 in terms of geography that supports less competitive, higher viewership game. That’s the whole point of the article.

my question stands on wanting to see expert data which dispute Mandel data. Can you post.
Click to expand...
Up thread I've already 1) refuted what you just said and 2) posted said data.
 
hawg1 said:
So do UO and UDub have leverage or not?
Click to expand...
Asked Howell about that in his chat today. His answer: No.

Better way to look at this-You'd either see those two in the Big 10 already or the four corners schools a lot more willing to go along with unequal revenue than they appear to be.
 
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