That’s a far cry from where he started.
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Sports -- College sports news and commentary by Jon Wilnerwww.mercurynews.com
Wilner thinks 33% chance that PAC 12 goes extinct.
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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
Here's my interpretation of what manhattan is saying:
32 teams will be in the group that competes for the championship every year.
10-20 of those will be permanent members of that group; let's call it 16 for ****s and grins.
There are 16 members of that group who are not permanent, but are subject to relegation.
Those 16 are part of a larger group of 32 or 48 that are eligible for promotion or relegation (let's go with 48 just cause the actual number isn't important).
So, 16 permanent members plus 48 others.
Now, just pulling dollar numbers out of thin air (again don't focus on the actual numbers, just the concept):
The 16 permanent members get $80MM/year payouts. The other 48 get $60MM/year, plus an additional $1MM/year for each consecutive year they're in the championship bracket, up to a max of $70MM. If they fall out, their payout decreases by $1MM/year until they're back down to $60MM.
No catastrophic cliffs for relegation, and there's a pool of 64 teams for scheduling purposes, historic rivalries, etc.
tOSU, Alabama, USC, OU, UTerus, etc aren't going to agree to a relegation system where they're at risk. But they need the Mizzous, Vandys, et al for any concept to work.
There are probably 48 (or 42, or 56, or whatever, the precise numbers aren't important) schools that would accept that system rather than risk being excluded from a permanent revenue maximizing 32.
32 teams will be in the group that competes for the championship every year.
10-20 of those will be permanent members of that group; let's call it 16 for ****s and grins.
There are 16 members of that group who are not permanent, but are subject to relegation.
Those 16 are part of a larger group of 32 or 48 that are eligible for promotion or relegation (let's go with 48 just cause the actual number isn't important).
So, 16 permanent members plus 48 others.
Now, just pulling dollar numbers out of thin air (again don't focus on the actual numbers, just the concept):
The 16 permanent members get $80MM/year payouts. The other 48 get $60MM/year, plus an additional $1MM/year for each consecutive year they're in the championship bracket, up to a max of $70MM. If they fall out, their payout decreases by $1MM/year until they're back down to $60MM.
No catastrophic cliffs for relegation, and there's a pool of 64 teams for scheduling purposes, historic rivalries, etc.
tOSU, Alabama, USC, OU, UTerus, etc aren't going to agree to a relegation system where they're at risk. But they need the Mizzous, Vandys, et al for any concept to work.
There are probably 48 (or 42, or 56, or whatever, the precise numbers aren't important) schools that would accept that system rather than risk being excluded from a permanent revenue maximizing 32.
This pretty much sums it up.
The old fashioned scheduling model would be thrown out, it would go more NFL style with a scheduling committee
So, in Wilner's eyes, the only thing that matters is Washington and Oregon. He never even mentions Colorado once, which who cares, he is a hack.
Time for Colorado to go to the SEC, period, end of the story
Take $50 million per year with escalators upwards to full membership in 5 years.
Amazon can join the SEC package
Until Colorado actually generates ratings for games, there really isn’t a reason to discuss them as an expansion candidate. That said, I think CU vs TCU and CU vs Nebraska are probably going to be the highest rated/most watched games of the first two weeks, which includes Bama/Texas. I think CU vs Oregon and CU vs USC will also be up there with any other game for ratings. The national conversation for CU being an expansion candidate for SEC/B1G will get louder by this time next year, IMO.
I concur, but my point is that the PAC is already a dysfunctional conference and nobody is actually giving a crap about each other at this point. anything less than $40 million per year is useless to our future, so time to move on our own. As much as Wilner thinks that Oregon and Washington are the premier properties, their only option is the B1G, while right now our options could develop more broadly, especially the SEC. Prime belongs in the South/Southwest, The SEC and its partners are smart enough to know that Texas and the West are valuable. Arizona, Colorado, and Kansas are valuable properties based on locations, and the ACC is also valuable, so that is our play.
The interesting question about Oregon is if it is sustainable after Phil Knight goes to the shoe factory in the sky. Oregon seems like a stock that is fully priced, or even overpriced. CU is cheap right now, but perhaps more upside longer term.
knight has already donated 1.5b+ to oregon and will give more. the money will outlast him by a long long margin. their endowment is nice.
While Knight has donated a ton to the athletic department, I believe the majority of his donations have gone to the Oregon Health Sciences center and other academic programs. Obviously, Knight is worth a ton, baronial wealth, but none of us know where it will all go when he is gone. I imagine mostly to his two living children. His final gift to Oregon is rumored to be $1 billion, but no one really knows how much and how it will be restricted, if at all.
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JFC, what a douche.
Aaaaaannnd…answered.
Theyre not going to give us full membership money. Itll be partial money for a few years. By the time were eligible for the full money Alabama et al will have left for the Super League.
Uncle Sam gets half of what he doesnt give away in advance. His children will be set for life but O will be the bigger winner.
Half? I’m thinking Knight has some pretty sophisticated grantor trusts working to reduce his estate taxes. For all I know, Knight is leaving his entire fortune to Oregon, or none, or some. My point is that over reliance on a single donor may not be a great longer term plan.
This. I’d be shocked if all of Knight’s assets weren’t already placed into one or more trusts. The feds ain’t getting jack when he dies.
Honest question, is UCLA, under Chip Kelly and the rest of his staff truly ready for the B1G 10? Not the strongest recruiting trend right now, changing conferences is hard, and they have not even won the PAC in a long time, let along even playing for the Championship since 2012. I think they are gonna suffer big time, and it will then continue to hurt recruiting.
UCLA is better than probably half the teams in the B1G right now, which is quite mediocre outside of Michigan, Ohio State and I guess Penn State. It's a different style of ball being played by most teams, but even Wisconsin is about to have a culture change to a more modern offense.
That's not how it works. The gift tax and estate tax systems are integrated. You cannot avoid transfer tax by simply gifting assets away before death. To the extent he leaves his estate to a 170(c) organization (like Oregon), there is an unlimited charitable deduction (i.e., there is no estate tax).
Yeah, they are ready for the jump
Big Jim
WTF?
UCLA is behind Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and possibly Purdue.
Yep. Maybe MSU, too. Despite their record in 2022 and what looks like a successful offseason, I think their overall team is about where Maryland is. I don't think they have a lot of future NFLers on the UCLA roster.
MSU was 5-7 this year and wasn't really competitive with anybody decent. Hard to truly compare cross conference, but UCLA was 9-4 with two top 10 wins against Washington and Utah, and lost to SC by 3. Not only that, but they've recruited better than all the programs you just mentioned.
You both overrate the middle of the B1G, just like everyone overrates the middle of the SEC
Besides the USC game being a close loss, how they ended the year was that they were also only 1 score better than Arizona and Cal while losing a close one to Pitt in their bowl. And that's with DTR in his final season after being a multi year starter in the system.
They're a solid team with a really good HC, but they aren't close to special.
I never said they were special, but neither are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland or Purdue. The B1G was very much carried by Michigan and Ohio State this year. Major drop off after those two programs.
Big Jim
WTF?
Yes, major drop off after OSU and Michigan. UCLA is somewhere around/below that other list of schools.
Buffnik as usual makes my point in far more detail
DTR is gone after a 10-year career
Their O-Line is not that special and that is important in the B1G
My biggest question is Chip Kelly in the B1G 10?
He went 10-6 in his first two seasons with Andy Reids guys, then fell off a cliff, went to the 49'ers and sucked so bad he got Hacketted and then back to UCLA
He is a good coach, just might be the wrong guy for a conference move