Nobody is ready for a conference jump, there will be pain
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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
The vibe around the expected PAC 12 payout have turned decidedly dour of late. I guess ”everyone talking out of their ass” will end within the next month or so, and we will all know the number. My hunch is that the PAC 12 deal is going to come in behind the Big 12. And not necessarily because the teams or footprints are lesser, but because the league has no leverage with anyone right now.
if the payout is in fact below the Big 12, the Arizona schools might be the first to flinch and bolt for the Big 12 themselves.
if the payout is in fact below the Big 12, the Arizona schools might be the first to flinch and bolt for the Big 12 themselves.
UCLA is a bit of an unknown until they know what they have in Moore. He could be miles better than DTR ever was, but it might not happen as a true freshman. They have to replace Charbonnet too who was probably more pivotal last season than DTR was
The scary part is that as soon as the numbers are known, and the pressure to sign off on it with our rights, we are in a pickle, BUT, we have a unicorn in the house, so what happens then. I agree the Arizona schools panic, Oregon panics and could even think about being Independent like ND, Washington panics, but they cannot fully ditch WSU.
I think the PAC number becomes the bargaining number for going to another conference on a reduced share option.
I think that Colorado and Arizona right now have the most potential for a move to the SEC because of Prime in Football and Arizona basketball. If there is any chance at all, then we must find a way to go.
ASU could go to the Big 12 pretty easily
UCLA is going to struggle in football. They’ll do well in basketball, maybe. I have a feeling the move won’t turn out well for them. USC will compete but UCLA will struggle.
Actually I think both of these things are somewhat true.
- I believe that last year, UCLA would have been clearly outclassed by UM/OSU/PSU, but would have been right there with Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa in the next tier.
- I believe that going forward, UCLA is around that same talent level given that they've been pulling in 25-30ish classes for the guys who are on the roster
- However, context matters- switching conferences has not worked out for almost ANYONE in the last 30 years or so. Think about all the teams that are worse off than they were in their old conferences: CU, nubs, A&M, Mizzou, Miami, BC, Maryland, and WVU. About the only programs its worked out for are Virginia Tech, Utah, and TCU, and 2/3 of those were moving into P5 from G5. Add in the fact that UCLAs travel schedule is going to be HORRENDOUS- other than USC, their closest conference mate is a 3 hour flight away, and they will have to do some east coast swings with 6 hour flights.
Big12 ADs meeting today at the DFW Airport Hyatt. Gonzaga talk, will OU and Texass leave a year early? Any traction for 4 corner schools joining?
Keep eye out if anything sticks.
www.cbssports.com
Keep eye out if anything sticks.
Gonzaga's candidacy, Pac-12's future, Texas and Oklahoma exit plans on deck with Big 12 brass set to meet
There are a lot of moving pieces for the Big 12 to consider at its upcoming meeting
www.cbssports.com
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Right. They’ll be firmly in the second tier of B1G programs.
And occasionally in the bottom tier.
Basketball will still be solid, and likely will be even more polished for the tournament, however, winning the B1G 10 Basketball Tournament will be a challenge
I think that USC will be better positioned to do well, but will struggle at times, especially on the road at places like Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State with huge crowds and bad weather.
UCLA is different, and has less NIL, is always below USC on recruiting, and depending on how the offenses shape up, it will be a challenge.
What are the divisions going to be again?
And the most important question, are B1G referees as incompetent as PAC refs?
His logic is pretty solid, with lots of flaws, but the PAC 12 is toast at this point.
I think Arizona and Utah to the Big 12 is fine, and Arizona and Colorado to the SEC
Oregon and Washington can go to the B1G 10, and then a G5 West Coast PAC can be formed with smaller programs like SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, etc.
I actually feel like there had to be a secret conversation between Rick George and Prime about going to the SEC or as a consolation the BIG 12 in the bigger picture and that Deion will essentially have "HIS" program here at Colorado that is 100% molded in his vision, which is a powerful thing for him to have total control and total ability to do what he wants in a central location with plenty of resources.
I think Arizona and Utah to the Big 12 is fine, and Arizona and Colorado to the SEC
Oregon and Washington can go to the B1G 10, and then a G5 West Coast PAC can be formed with smaller programs like SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Boise State, etc.
I actually feel like there had to be a secret conversation between Rick George and Prime about going to the SEC or as a consolation the BIG 12 in the bigger picture and that Deion will essentially have "HIS" program here at Colorado that is 100% molded in his vision, which is a powerful thing for him to have total control and total ability to do what he wants in a central location with plenty of resources.
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
I love ya my man, but jeebus
The problem w your scenario is that it requires the B1G and SEC to be accepting of Oregon, Wash, CU and Arizona. If the conferences wanted them right now, it would have already happened. The SEC is not anxiously waiting for CU to decide they want to join the SEC.
Wait, you mean CU can't just call up the SEC and join?
I figured it was like when Joe signed our office up for the softball league. He called, we signed some papers and the office manager cut a check and they added us to next year's schedule.
Edit: now that I think about it, the paperwork and check came later. Joe called, and they added us to the schedule, just like that. I figured all sports leagues work the same way, and it'd seem the southern ones would be really friendly and easy to join.
Eventually, Commish K is going to have to present a number for the schools to consider. As I’ve said, I can believe that number will be disappointing, partly because of poor leverage for the league.
If the number is above $30 million, I think it’s more likely than not that the PAC 12 holds together for another short term deal.
If the number is below $30 million, then it’s likely the League dissolves. I would place the greatest likelihood that the Big 12 would be where CU lands. The Big 12 clearly wants to expand west, and the Denver and Phoenix markets make the most sense. I’d say 85% chance this happens in a dissolution scenario.
I really don’t see the Big Ten as much of an option anymore. If the PAC 12 dissolves, they will take Washington and Oregon. I’ve heard that USC doesn’t want Oregon, but that sounds more like fan noise to me. If they take four, then the two Bay Area schools, Cal and Furd, make too much sense. I’d say 5% chance.
I see the SEC as a remote possibility, but a slightly more likely landing spot for CU, especially if the Big Ten adds the northwest PAC 12 schools. The SEC may want some geographic balance with the big ten and the Phoenix and Denver markets would be best available. 10% chance.
If the number is above $30 million, I think it’s more likely than not that the PAC 12 holds together for another short term deal.
If the number is below $30 million, then it’s likely the League dissolves. I would place the greatest likelihood that the Big 12 would be where CU lands. The Big 12 clearly wants to expand west, and the Denver and Phoenix markets make the most sense. I’d say 85% chance this happens in a dissolution scenario.
I really don’t see the Big Ten as much of an option anymore. If the PAC 12 dissolves, they will take Washington and Oregon. I’ve heard that USC doesn’t want Oregon, but that sounds more like fan noise to me. If they take four, then the two Bay Area schools, Cal and Furd, make too much sense. I’d say 5% chance.
I see the SEC as a remote possibility, but a slightly more likely landing spot for CU, especially if the Big Ten adds the northwest PAC 12 schools. The SEC may want some geographic balance with the big ten and the Phoenix and Denver markets would be best available. 10% chance.
You really saw that bit through. I admire that.
Again, the only scenario I see where the SEC gets involved is if the Big has picked up more PAC schools and the SEC wants some kind of balance in geographical reach. I still called that possibility “remote”, because I think the SEC is fine being exactly what its name implies, a southeastern conference.
ESPN is going to have something (a lot) to say, though, and they are missing two time zones that I think will factor in at some point
And that’s my point. If Fox has coast to coast coverage with the Big, then maybe ESPN pushes the SEC to grab a few schools out west.
For the Big to grab CU, I think they would have to add six, since I think we are behind UW, UO, Cal, and Stanford. UCLA alone would lobby very hard for Cal given the weird compensation that they may have to pay for leaving the PAC.
In the end, CU back in the Big 12 seems like the overwhelming favorite at this juncture, if the per school payout for the remaining PAC sucks.
The SEC and the B1G have to now think like the AFL and the NFL did.
Coast to coast balance
Big NFL like markets that have some of the best college potential
Colorado (Denver), Kansas (Kansas City), Arizona (Phoenix), Washington (Seattle), Oregon (Portland) are real properties
UO UW STANFORD NOTRE DAME to the B1G
CU AZ KS FSU CLEM MIA to the SEC
The networks just want a clean product at this point
Coast to coast balance
Big NFL like markets that have some of the best college potential
Colorado (Denver), Kansas (Kansas City), Arizona (Phoenix), Washington (Seattle), Oregon (Portland) are real properties
UO UW STANFORD NOTRE DAME to the B1G
CU AZ KS FSU CLEM MIA to the SEC
The networks just want a clean product at this point
That's wishful thinking bro. There is no big time brand left in the west that's not already in the SEC or B1G. No one is dying to have Oregon and Washington. Colorado until proven otherwise is right there at the bottom of the PAC in terms of value with Oregon State. That said, things are quickly changing but if you go back the last 5 seasons, Colorado overall value is 11th of 12.
I don't see any team left getting an invite to the SEC. The B1G is different. They aren't adding anyone right now but in six years, who knows. Colorado might be appealing enough to be considered and valued on that level in time. As of right now, no one is really talking about Colorado outside of the Big XII and isn't that even worth it for Colorado. Probably not. The PAC-12 offers a lot of academic value that just makes sense for Colorado.
When one uses the term “remote” in conjunction with chance, can that be described as wishful thinking? I personally don’t think so. A lot of favorable dominoes would have to fall in CUs favor to get either an invite to the Big Ten or SEC.
The SEC hasn't shown any interest in adding teams beyond tier 1 college football brands.
The B1G literally added the crown jewels of the west coast and shunned quality brands like Oregon and Washington. You gotta be honest with yourself. There is no room for Colorado for expansion at that top end level. Maybe that changes in 5 years but for the previous 5 and the next 3. It won't. Regardless of what Deion does, it's always going to be, once Deion is gone, there is no value in Colorado and he will just leave. While that might not be true, until CU is five years in with Prime and he sticks, then it's different.
Then it's for real but as of right now, your overall value is 11th of 12 teams currently in the Pac-12. That's not going to get you into the B1G or SEC. Even being 3rd won't like Oregon. Facts are, Colorado has to have 5 years of a elite track record. USC hasn't won in over 12 years yet are still the elite brand of the west as well as UCLA. We gotta be realistic. Colorado is building something great but that's not going to sway anyone. Regardless of media, TV, or anything beyond social media within the current moments. Companies give media contracts based on track record.