So taking my own personal feelings out of it and just looking at it from a thought experiment perspective, the school who needs to be hitting their legislature hard to let them go is UW. When I look at all of the college football programs west of the Great Plains, I only see two that a conference looks at and says, "yeah, they're worthwhile to go to all the trouble to bring aboard". One is USC, and UCLA is riding their coattails. The only other I see is Oregon. Whether it's the Big Ten or the Big 12 or the Pac whatever, Washington is the best possible partner to bring aboard with Oregon, but I don't see them as a "must get". The Big Ten might look down the road and say, well, we're not taking Wazzu with those guys, so we'll grab Stanford instead. Or, and I mean this sounds like bull****, but whatever, if both the Oregon and Washington legislatures shot down the big brothers leaving the little brothers behind idea, maybe the Beavs get to ride the coattails.
My other thought is that this is probably the Big Ten's effort to drain the West of anything of value, and whoever loses this round is gone, but I don't think ND is going to be involved in this round of Big Ten expansion, even if it goes to 20. My guess is that what they're going to do is make sure that the SEC never goes any further west than Norman, and destroy the ACC's chances of ever getting into a "P3" setting. Maybe they go to 20, maybe they just go to 18, but they'll set it up so that the SEC is 2nd place again in the contract standings, and they control as much as they can for when the SEC gobbles up as much of the ACC as they want, and then the Big Ten will be free to bring in a homeless ND on their terms, as well as add Virginia, North Carolina, and whoever else fits their criteria but doesn't want to go to the SEC.