CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[MiamiBuffs]

That hurts. I thought for sure they would bring in more. I wonder what his estimates for ucla/usc would have been. After skimming it seems like he only takes the paid tv subscribers in the area into account. Not sure that the tv market in Eugene tells the whole story of Oregon's value.

LA TV market > Every TV Market in Oregon combined.

There are a lot of people that watch Oregon football right now because they are both pretty and good. They get a lot of audience outside Oregon. After Phil leaves this mortal coil behind history says The Ducks are virtually guaranteed to follow a path similar to CU, Miami, et al, and likely return to what they were before Nike. And thats probably why Fox is skeptical because they know someday small market Oregon will be mediocre again. But still cost them $100m per for 10 or 20 years.

To be able to pay each school $100m bucks you have to sell air time to Jake from State Farm for X. Jake will pay X if he gets Y number of eyeballs. If he doesnt get the eyeballs he balks and the ad rate comes down due to underselling and panties start to bunch in the Fox C-Suite because they are paying out more than they are bringing in. Now, Seattle the TV market, probably makes more sense with its much bigger metro. Probably almost $100m sense. But Oregon is likely a harder delta.

I also think we've reached or are reaching amounts of money that might be a ceiling for the networks. I talked to a stock analyst last week that pointed out ESPN is paying big big money for 'stuff' and subscribers signing up for ESPN+ to payback that 'stuff' is still partly questionable after overhead. Disney's stock tanked hard in dovetail with Netflix's implosion quarter where they announced a large loss of net subscribers when a gain was expected. The point? People are skeptical that ESPN+ can pay for the contracts ESPN wrote for content.

Part of that story is why Fox is tapping the brakes on anything beyond SC and UCLA.

The B1G, for the record, had the #1 (New York) and #3 (Chicago) local TV Markets already pretty sewn up. Plus of bunch of good sized markets in between across the midwest and North East. They just added the #2 market. The Big10 also, before this addition, was already ahead of ESecPN in terms of the totals. Adding USC and UCLA creates more marquee matchups. Who in LA is not gonna tune in to see USC v tOSU? UCLA v Michigan? Big bucks.

2021 College Football TV Ratings by Conference

The College Football regular season this year showed the sport was healthy on its face. 51 college football games pulled in at least 3.5 Million people, which is an absurd number. A closer look at the number shows a pretty wide discrepancy between the conferences, which might be even larger than...

purdue.forums.rivals.com

 

[Hank]

It really does give you pause when you consider that Oregon and UW might be on the ropes here.

I think Oregon will be fine. Probably UW too.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

But do you need CU for the Denver market?

It's not about CU. It's about the conference that CU is part of dominating the local TV market. You follow your teams conference. Its about marquee matchups and as many of them you can manufacture. Thats what Fox is doing. Thats why ND is in the conversation.

If you are in this arrangement you own the market instead of sharing it with the Big12 or Pac thru ownership of the local interest (CU). You can still feature the CU game v NW in the morning or other off timeslot. Then you put the marquee Michigan Michigan State game on right after and own the living room for the entire day. You have to have as many of these as you can get to take a bite out of attraction to SEC games.

CU, by the way, is interchangeable for Oregon, UW or whoever they decide to add.

A big problem the Pac had was there were no intra-conference marquee matchups anymore. No must see TV for the rest of the country. All the teams were pretty bland except Oregon.

 

[CUAviator]

I think the Big 12 gets better with these new teams, even after Texas and Oklahoma leave. The concern is what happens with the next media deal. The conference has been hanging not far behind the Big Ten and SEC in media revenue per school, but the next round may not look so good.

In football it has been very competitive, but hasn't had a team capable of a national championship. The new teams being added are good. Cincinnati was just in the playoffs, but really wasn't much different than Oklahoma. Good enough to make it. Not good enough to win.

In basketball the conference has been as good as I've ever seen it in over thirty years. The last two national champions and three different teams in the finals of the last four tournaments. That's impressive when you consider there are only ten teams in the league. And none of those teams in basketball were Texas or Oklahoma. But that success may not translate into media revenue unless it's sustained.

I think Cincy and Houston being in a “Power” conference is going to make them very attractive.

 

[Agent Dave Kujan]

Yeah, I think people are underestimating the national brand of UCLA. Clearly not at the level USC, but it is attractive in its own right.

True but they suck. They are gonna get smoked by all but the bottom feeders.
(I hope)

 

[GawainBuff]

I have already said I think it’s most likely that UCLA was included because FOX didn’t want to share the LA market with what probably would have been ESPN/SEC.

UCLA is a nationally irrelevant football program, though. CU is more irrelevant. Both are true

It’s all about the TV money. So stupidly sad.

I live near the Rose Bowl—have friends with 40 yd line seats (20 rows up). Watching a UCLA game in person is a horrible experience. Least energized stadium I’ve ever been to. It’s painful to watch their sideline “Yell Squad Leader” or whatever that is. Everyone just ignores it and sits in their TINY seats glummly. Just awful. I come up with excuses not to have to go.

A CU game can generate amazing energy even without a packed crowd or great team. So much better fan experience, even without considering Ralphie.

It’s so randomly stupid how the CFL is going to break down. A line is going to get drawn and everyone not in the group is just done.

 

[PAC MAN]

This is at least the 2nd mention I've seen of CU, UU and the AZ schools meeting this week with the Big 12 to potentially join. Which is great, but doesn't CU have to wait until the B1G gives them a definitive no first? Yes they do. Of course this assumes that CU has had the foresight to apply for B1G membership.

All it takes is a phone call to the B1G to gauge their interest. If the interest is there, you send the application. The B1G knows CU and doesn’t have to rely on the opinion of the Cornhusker in the room that mutters unintelligible gibberish when discussing CU. Unfortunately the Mel Tucker move from Boulder to East Lansing does make the B1G take a closer look and see how uncommitted to athletics the CU administration is. Yes that happened at the worst time possible.

Coukd CU still end up in the B1G? Yes. I’m not sure it would be the best move at this point. Going back to the Big 12 & rekindling what we once had in the Big 8/12 would put CU in a much better spot to move to the B1G eventually. I remember the games against the likes of Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin and I had more passion in those games than I did against the zoAzx. I believe a move to the B1G would work for CU but is the timing right?

 

[Go Buffs]

It’s all about the TV money. So stupidly sad.

I live near the Rose Bowl—have friends with 40 yd line seats (20 rows up). Watching a UCLA game in person is a horrible experience. Least energized stadium I’ve ever been to. It’s painful to watch their sideline “Yell Squad Leader” or whatever that is. Everyone just ignores it and sits in their TINY seats glummly. Just awful. I come up with excuses not to have to go.

A CU game can generate amazing energy even without a packed crowd or great team. So much better fan experience, even without considering Ralphie.

It’s so randomly stupid how the CFL is going to break down. A line is going to get drawn and everyone not in the group is just done.

Well said. The game day experience at Folsom is electric even when we suck, which has been common over the last 20 years. For those of us who experienced the glory years (the 86 and 01 games against the fuskers were out of body experiences), we long for those days. This goddamn CSU guy who is claiming we will win another national championship is playing a dirty trick on us I am afraid.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Here’s one persons fantasy

 

[manhattanbuff]

Here’s one persons fantasy

I thought weed was illegal in Utah.

 

[BuffBronco]

After Phil leaves this mortal coil behind

He'll probably leave OU half his wealth ($20 billion), poor them

 

[Buffnik]

I listened to an interview this am on ESPN U radio on Sirius/XM with Jon Wilner. He fully believes Oregon and Washington aren't getting a Big10 invite anytime soon.

I still think if the Big 12 comes calling you seriously consider unless somehow you can get the ACC to merge with the PAC 10 to form a Coastal Athletic Conference.

Frankly, the best thing that could happen would be if the heavyweights among who is left (ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) sat down to talk about who they want for a national conference which would get the max possible media deal.

The reason this won't happen is that they're just killing time until they get an invite and bolt. They're the prettiest girls who haven't been asked to the prom and it's not in human nature for them to organize an alternate dance party.

 

[Buffnik]

TV market is one factor. It’s Colorado’s only feather when they’re looking for the complete package. Colorado is doomed.

Yep. The B1G looks at CU the way the Pac-12 looked at UNLV. "It's a market we'd like to be in and they fit our research institution profile of what we want in a peer... but their football program is so bad they'd drag our product down & we don't see the fan, university or donor support to change that quickly."

We are not Rutgers which brought in-footprint media rates for NYC.

 

[Buffnik]

The problem for CU is that a desirable market is not enough.

Look at the old Big East. They owned Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington DC and Miami among other market assets including Notre Dame for non-football and could not offer the media revenue to keep its teams.

Fan/booster support means more than home market. This is especially true in a NIL era where media revenue is tilting to a la carte streaming and apps.

The only thing that keeps CU sort of in the conversation is home market, but the state has half the population of Los Angeles and we're not like Penn State where every townie bar hours away across the state is packed for CU games.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

The problem for CU is that a desirable market is not enough.

Look at the old Big East. They owned Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington DC and Miami among other market assets including Notre Dame for non-football and could not offer the media revenue to keep its teams.

Fan/booster support means more than home market. This is especially true in a NIL era where media revenue is tilting to a la carte streaming and apps.

The only thing that keeps CU sort of in the conversation is home market, but the state has half the population of Los Angeles and we're not like Penn State where every townie bar hours away across the state is packed for CU games.

It's about brand names, not markets. USC brings both and bringing UCLA puts a stranglehold on that market

 

[Liver]

nd and stanford to the big is an interesting spin on things...

i really don't think oregon and uw ultimately get left out of everything but they must be a little nervous. if this thing with ua asu uu and CU bolting to the b12 is true, there is no pac left no matter what uw and uo would want to do with it.

gee, thanks fox and espn for completely destroying college football. it was already on life support with a powerless ncaa and the concentration of powers and NIL but you guys really just wrecked the last of it. the thing is, i don't watch other conferences for more than a few minutes at a time unless there is some impact on our team and conference. sure, if 1 and 2 are playing or it is a big old rivalry game i will tune in but i am not glued to the screen. college ball for me has always been about CU.

i am not suddenly going to drop everything and tune into ****ing mississippi state v. vandy just because the networks have decreed that that is somehow an important game.

college football is regional and rivalries and debating who is really better than some other team. if the Buffs end up in some **** conference with some **** tv deal with limited coverage and no shot at the nc, it isn't like i am going to drop decades of fandom and decide to support ucla or something.

this whole thing is a **** storm.

 

[Buffnik]

It's about brand names, not markets. USC brings both and bringing UCLA puts a stranglehold on that market

Yep. Having both is best, but there's a reason Nebraska is more valuable than Boston College.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

The only thing that keeps CU sort of in the conversation is home market, but the state has half the population of Los Angeles and we're not like Penn State where every townie bar hours away across the state is packed for CU games.

Just listen to Denver sportstalk radio, the Buffs rank a distant 5th in the local market interest. USC is the 2nd biggest draw in LA after the Dodgers out of 9 total pro/college teams in that market when they are winning. That's unheard of in a major pro sports city. When the Trojans are winning they are pretty much top dog in the city.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Just listen to Denver sportstalk radio, the Buffs rank a distant 5th in the local market interest. USC is the 2nd biggest draw in LA after the Dodgers out of 9 total pro/college teams in that market when they are winning. That's unheard of in a major pro sports city. When the Trojans are winning they are pretty much top dog in the city.

And UCLA is an afterthought.

I actually think when CU is good, the media covers them, but they certainly aren’t bulletproof like the Broncos and can’t be a flash in the pan/one hit wonder like 2016. Denver will always be a Broncos town first, but second is up for grabs for any team that wants to take it by being relevant.

CU fans and even casual neutral fans show up when CU is good. 2016 was a preview of what the program could be if they would just be a consistent 6-8 game winner.

 

[Liver]

Just listen to Denver sportstalk radio, the Buffs rank a distant 5th in the local market interest. USC is the 2nd biggest draw in LA after the Dodgers out of 9 total pro/college teams in that market when they are winning. That's unheard of in a major pro sports city. When the Trojans are winning they are pretty much top dog in the city.

i have been to quite a few usc games including when they were really really good. LA jumps on the bandwagon in a big way and fills that place up. there is a lot of pageantry with the band and all the rest. there are a **** ton of alums in California and even more folks who follow them.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

And UCLA is an afterthought.

I actually think when CU is good, the media covers them, but they certainly aren’t bulletproof like the Broncos and can’t be a flash in the pan/one hit wonder like 2016. Denver will always be a Broncos town first, but second is up for grabs for any team that wants to take it by being relevant.

CU fans and even casual neutral fans show up when CU is good. 2016 was a preview of what the program could be if they would just be a consistent 6-8 game winner.

That's fair and I certainly don't disagree. It's the Broncos and then a race for 2nd, whoever is the hot commodity at that time

 

[PAHIBuff]

We need Nebraska to be our advocate. Wait!

 

[CarolinaBuff]

We need Nebraska to be our advocate. Wait!

 

[Matt]

All this has me wondering how many have-not schools just drop football. Next few years are going to be nuts.

 

[HudsonBuff]

That's fair and I certainly don't disagree. It's the Broncos and then a race for 2nd, whoever is the hot commodity at that time

There has been more avalanche coverage (which I have been enjoying) in the last 6 weeks then the last 20 years combined haha.

 

[ahoelsken]

And UCLA is an afterthought.

I actually think when CU is good, the media covers them, but they certainly aren’t bulletproof like the Broncos and can’t be a flash in the pan/one hit wonder like 2016. Denver will always be a Broncos town first, but second is up for grabs for any team that wants to take it by being relevant.

CU fans and even casual neutral fans show up when CU is good. 2016 was a preview of what the program could be if they would just be a consistent 6-8 game winner.

I think the Avs have 2nd pretty well locked down and will for the foreseeable future. Very likable team who looks like they all really like it here. CU can get attention. I also think with this that the ACC's GoR is kind of slowing this down for now. Realignment is going to be around at least until 2036.

 

[Buffnik]

The thing with Nebraska is that the fan base is not happy. Beyond the program sucking, they more than anyone in the region loved to travel SEC fan style to games. They've lost that in the B1G. Worse, they lost Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri - gaining Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin will never feel the same.

I believe this is a dangerous time for college sports. They're making moves for near-term revenue that is seriously harming passion and loyalty to the product from the core customers. It's gone corporate. That's pretty much synonymous for something starting to suck.

 

[patebuff]

The thing with Nebraska is that the fan base is not happy. Beyond the program sucking, they more than anyone in the region loved to travel SEC fan style to games. They've lost that in the B1G. Worse, they lost Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri - gaining Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin will never feel the same.

I believe this is a dangerous time for college sports. They're making moves for near-term revenue that is seriously harming passion and loyalty to the product from the core customers. It's gone corporate. That's pretty much synonymous for something starting to suck.

Does a 40 team super conference survive long term?

I can’t think of something so unregulated as college football right now. It’s literally every man for himself

 

[Buffnik]

Does a 40 team super conference survive long term?

I can’t think of something so unregulated as college football right now. It’s literally every man for himself

Well, the only example of a 16-team conference we've had was when the WAC crashed and burned. The examples of conferences trying a non-regional sprawl were C-USA and AAC, which have both failed to make the model work.

Color me skeptical.

 

[Thisuniversityisf’ed!]

The thing with Nebraska is that the fan base is not happy. Beyond the program sucking, they more than anyone in the region loved to travel SEC fan style to games. They've lost that in the B1G. Worse, they lost Oklahoma, Colorado and Missouri - gaining Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin will never feel the same.

I believe this is a dangerous time for college sports. They're making moves for near-term revenue that is seriously harming passion and loyalty to the product from the core customers. It's gone corporate. That's pretty much synonymous for something starting to suck.

Put me in the latter. College is fun because rivalries and close knit ties to games you can travel to. P12 kinda killed that and now the entire thing is on the verge of dying.