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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

The Alabaster Yak said:
BYU has been a G5 level program in the relevant era and has never been considered a candidate for playoff consideration. Oregon can make independence work, but they won’t be considered for the playoff, like ND had been and will continue to be.
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I disagree that Oregon wouldn't be considered for the playoff if they put together a 1-loss or undefeated season. Like BYU they could probably schedule 4 or 5 games against Pac12 teams and get a good schedule together nationally especially if they took on the Boise model of being willing to play anyone, anywhere. And Oregon is a much bigger draw than Boise plus they have scheduled well over the past decade or so and I'm sure they would be able to continue to do so.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
You’re using projections from March before the entire landscape changed and Fox went all in on B1G? Dude, everything has changed in the last 9 days. The projections for the Pac 10 is around $30m/school right now. The numbers put out by your boy from West Virginia said $500-$600m for a Big18 which is around the same $30m/school. Removing Oregon and UW from that equation doesn’t bring more money per school.
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Where are you getting that $30M from? I haven't seen even a tweet since June 30 saying the Pac 10 can get $30m only dealing with ESPN.
 
ahoelsken said:
Where are you getting that $30M from? I haven't seen even a tweet since June 30 saying the Pac 10 can get $30m only dealing with ESPN.
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Canzano article. Former Fox executive said wuth SC and UCLA Pac 12 was likely looking at $500m+ total, but without, it’s looking like around $300m
 
i wouldn't be so sure oregon will sign a hardcore gor. they could, indeed, go independent and still make themselves relevant. uw is kinda just along for the ride.

what will the terms of the new pac be? on tv money? on rev share? on scheduling? on GoR? and who will be in it? will a streamer pay a premium to beef up its live sports offer?

the big 12 v. pac evaluation will factor all these things. and they will be factored individually by each school as we are not all equally situated. at all.

stanford could also go independent and still get good games scheduled.

wsu and osu are ****ed if the pac can't hold. cal is probably ****ed if the pac can't hold. utah, CU, asu, and ua will have more options that these others but they aren't necessarily good or even ok options. and, if uo and uw are indeed getting pressure to not ditch wsu and osu then CU and the others have more leverage in the negotiations. and, if the b12 hasn't offered uw and uo, then CU and the others have more leverage in that regard too.

what we really need is another nuke to drop (nd committing to the big, sec trying to get into western markets, oregon and stanford affirmatively deciding to go independent, or so forth... a big driver event could force the further expansion of the sec and big. otherwise, this whole ting is basically a static line battle front for awhile.

patience is going to be required and i have little to none of that left for CU as i do no trust their decision-makers. they have repeatedly demonstrated that they are not worthy of our trust or investment. but, hey, maybe this time they will surprise us in the right way.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Canzano article. Former Fox executive said wuth SC and UCLA Pac 12 was likely looking at $500m+ total, but without, it’s looking like around $300m
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I don't believe the conference can do that until at least the exclusive negotiating window ends-they're negotiating with ESPN and only ESPN right now.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Washington State went to 6 bowl games over the 2015-2019 and 2021 time frame Staples uses, which is the real difference maker in those 1m viewer numbers. I’m also willing to bet CU is one of the only programs in the upper half of that list that only went to 1 or fewer bowl games during that time frame. Had they gone to 6 bowl games as well, I imagine they would be right there tied for 6th on that list with Washington State, if not higher due to them naturally being better and playing in bigger games.

Basically, I think you’re right, the national perception of Colorado is higher than what Colorado fans think of ourselves, likely because the majority of CFB viewers remember CU as a good program.
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I'd say that the decent national interest in CU as well as the depression & negativity CU fans have are BOTH due to remembering how good CU was.
 
So USC and UCLA nixed a deal that would have given each school $83M, then bounced?

Seems both schools owe every other institution in the conference roughly $41.167M each plus interest.

Think that's why that @jerdough guy is asking for legal help?
 
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Alfred91 said:
So USC and UCLA nixed a deal that would have given each school $83M, then bounced?

Seems both schools owes every other institution in the conference roughly $41.167M each plus interest.

Think that's why that @jerdough guy is asking for legal help?
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@Hank should hit him up. He's an attorney.
 
ahoelsken said:
Get a $30M per school TV deal. What incentive does ESPN have to not lowball the Pac 10? They'd be bidding against themselves.
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My man. I’m telling you what the ex Fox exec said was probably going to be the Pac 10s worth. Have no idea what is actually happening with negotiations right now
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
My man. I’m telling you what the ex Fox exec said was probably going to be the Pac 10s worth. Have no idea what is actually happening with negotiations right now
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I know what you're telling me, Yak. I just don't see how ESPN has any incentive to not lowball the Pac 10. Where would the conference go? Apple? Amazon? Kliavkoff has no leverage here whatsoever. Fox is out. I've seen nothing that would lead me to believe that CBS and/or Turner (or somebody like them) are even interested in putting a bid in for the Pac 10's rights.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
"and Oregon has put in their reserves as they increase their lead over CU by 35 headed to the half. this inaugural season in the Pac 12 for the Buffs has been rough."

Btw, this was not even a hypothetical. This actually happened in 2011, if you remember.

35-0 Oregon at half time IN Boulder.
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my favorite was when the announcement was made we joined the p12 right before a game at Cal where we just got rolled by 50

exciting times, luckily I’m told the p12 was solely to blame for our ineptitude so well instantly be better off in the vaunted okie st Baylor conference 👍
 
ahoelsken said:
I know what you're telling me, Yak. I just don't see how ESPN has any incentive to not lowball the Pac 10. Where would the conference go? Apple? Amazon? Kliavkoff has no leverage here whatsoever. Fox is out. I've seen nothing that would lead me to believe that CBS and/or Turner (or somebody like them) are even interested in putting a bid in for the Pac 10's rights.
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let me provide a few incentives:

1. the pac can wait out the exclusive window. apple, Amazon, and the like *may* be willing to pay a premium to what espn will pay. they want to beef up their live streaming sports and the west coast is well aligned with those companies and their self identity.

2. the teams in the pac could blow it all up. oregon and stanford maybe go independent. CU, asu, ua and uu go to the big12, wsu and osu go mwc. and so forth. there is no etched in stone requirement that any team do a deal with them vis a vis the pac.

3. the network needs to fill the later time slots AND they do not wish to completely go black on much of the western US.

there is enough uncertainty that a deal could get done and it isn't necessarily a "low ball" deal-- if for now the pac teams hold together and negotiate through the exclusive window and then see if there are other bidders (there are), then things might shake out at market value. this also the reason might get done during the window-- the pac might blink first and decide it is too risky to wait. or, 4-6 schools could flee to the b12, etc. etc.

espn has the upper hand but don't assume they cannot be ****ed with. they can be ****ed with.
 
White_Rabbit said:
my favorite was when the announcement was made we joined the p12 right before a game at Cal where we just got rolled by 50

exciting times, luckily I’m told the p12 was solely to blame for our ineptitude so well instantly be better off in the vaunted okie st Baylor conference 👍
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yeah i was at that one. so were a lot of the CUAD and some other administrators and boosters and such. there was hope. sure, we got crushed, but to a person, no one thought it would end up as ****ed as this. the p12 didn't cause our suckitude-- we caused it--- the conference woes just finished us off.
 
Liver said:
let me provide a few incentives:

1. the pac can wait out the exclusive window. apple, Amazon, and the like *may* be willing to pay a premium to what espn will pay. they want to beef up their live streaming sports and the west coast is well aligned with those companies and their self identity.

2. the teams in the pac could blow it all up. oregon and stanford maybe go independent. CU, asu, ua and uu go to the big12, wsu and osu go mwc. and so forth. there is no etched in stone requirement that any team do a deal with them vis a vis the pac.

3. the network needs to fill the later time slots AND they do not wish to completely go black on much of the western US.

there is enough uncertainty that a deal could get done and it isn't necessarily a "low ball" deal-- if for now the pac teams hold together and negotiate through the exclusive window and then see if there are other bidders (there are), then things might shake out at market value. this also the reason might get done during the window-- the pac might blink first and decide it is too risky to wait. or, 4-6 schools could flee to the b12, etc. etc.

espn has the upper hand but don't assume they cannot be ****ed with. they can be ****ed with.
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As to your points-One, I think the conference has to wait the window out. Gotta keep ESPN in the fold, but I think GK has to be able to get something else done on top of it. Could be CBS/Turner, but I think its more likely that its Amazon/Apple. Two, sure. My perception is Arizona is the only school right now who would prefer the B12. Everybody else is wait and see. Three, FOX might be the only network who doesn't need to. They have the Big 10 and all those brands. They can afford to roll with the MWC there because they can roll out Ohio State in the morning, Michigan in the afternoon, and USC in prime time....or something like that.

I'll believe it when I see it with the Pac-I think a CU move to the Big 12 is likely.
 
ahoelsken said:
As to your points-One, I think the conference has to wait the window out. Gotta keep ESPN in the fold, but I think GK has to be able to get something else done on top of it. Could be CBS/Turner, but I think its more likely that its Amazon/Apple. Two, sure. My perception is Arizona is the only school right now who would prefer the B12. Everybody else is wait and see. Three, FOX might be the only network who doesn't need to. They have the Big 10 and all those brands. They can afford to roll with the MWC there because they can roll out Ohio State in the morning, Michigan in the afternoon, and USC in prime time....or something like that.

I'll believe it when I see it with the Pac-I think a CU move to the Big 12 is likely.
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I think

1.
2.
3.

is easier to read, but maybe that's just me.
 
The report about UCLA and USC sabotaging the $1bn for 15% equity deal. I can't even wrap my head around it. What does that even mean? Really, what is a 15% equity interest in the Pac12? Television rights? Gate? Does the private equity firm own 15% of the gear? Wouldn't it blow tax-exempt status? Seems ****ing crazy.
 
Hank said:
The report about UCLA and USC sabotaging the $1bn for 15% equity deal. I can't even wrap my head around it. What does that even mean? Really, what is a 15% equity interest in the Pac12? Television rights? Gate? Does the private equity firm own 15% of the gear? Wouldn't it blow tax-exempt status? Seems ****ing crazy.
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Yeah, I remember reading about it back then and thinking that it seemed too good to be true. Might have actually been the best thing Larry Scott ever thought of. The fact USC/UCLA were the two schools that turned it down should have been red flags everywhere.

Gotta think Big 10 was courting LA Schools back then?
 
MiamiBuffs said:
we couldnt stay where we were. Texas had already nuked the BigXII which is why A&M, NU, and CU left. They blocked a conference network with their longhorn network and they were already getting more money then the rest.
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Fair. These seemed like perfectly good reasons to bolt when CU did. And everyone pretty much agreed that we’d be far better off. A lot of this is easy to see in hindsight, but I guess a better way to make my point is—the PAC 10/12 has historically been stuck in the mud, resting perpetually on their rose bowl, Olympic sports, and academic prestige, and it should be no surprise that they still are.
 
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