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CU MBB Rankings/NET/KenPom/Bracketology Catch-All

One day, I will stop looking at lunardis projections.

Today is not that day.

The man is a simpleton and a hack. The biggest proof is that he has no P12 team designated as an AQ in his latest bracket, when we know it’s down to CU or Oregon.

Since he left CU in his “last four in”, we can assume that he has the PAC12 AQ as roughly deserving of the same respect as tiny conference AQs.

He also moved Mississippi State (to a 9 seed), Colorado State (to a 9 seed), and Texas A&M (to a 10 seed) and left CU unchanged; I understand that MSU and A&M had good victories yesterday, but CSU LOST to a bubble team.

Plus they all have inarguably worse resumes than CU; the only major metric that puts any of them higher than CU is ESPNs stupid BPI.

5ECF531E-6281-4303-B3C9-442266C5947D.jpeg
 
Denver_sc said:
One day, I will stop looking at lunardis projections.

Today is not that day.

The man is a simpleton and a hack. The biggest proof is that he has no P12 team designated as an AQ in his latest bracket, when we know it’s down to CU or Oregon.

Since he left CU in his “last four in”, we can assume that he has the PAC12 AQ as roughly deserving of the same respect as tiny conference AQs.

He also moved Mississippi State (to a 9 seed), Colorado State (to a 9 seed), and Texas A&M (to a 10 seed) and left CU unchanged; I understand that MSU and A&M had good victories yesterday, but CSU LOST to a bubble team.

Plus they all have inarguably worse resumes than CU; the only major metric that puts any of them higher than CU is ESPNs stupid BPI.

View attachment 70483
Click to expand...
Jerry Palm has been the same too. He's just hidden over at CBS.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Trolley problem:

If Joe Lunardi and Andy Enfield are on the track the train is headed towards, and Dan Lanning and Jason Whitlock on are the other track that you can divert the train to, do you throw the switch?
Click to expand...
Kill It With Fire GIF
 
The variance for what's projected for the Buffs at bracketmatrix seems a lot higher than most other teams; as high as #7, as low as out.

I like how INCC shows their projections, they're high on the Buffs, but with a very wide spread:

1710596944571.png

#5-8 if we win, #7-out if we lose.

I don't know what to think, I agree with @Dark Bohner , that this is dredging up some really bad memories from Tad's first season and getting snubbed.

I think we should be a #5/6 with a win, and a #7/#9 with a loss. Being an #11 would be an insult, but maybe the best case for a path to the second weekend.
 
Denver_sc said:
One day, I will stop looking at lunardis projections.

Today is not that day.

The man is a simpleton and a hack. The biggest proof is that he has no P12 team designated as an AQ in his latest bracket, when we know it’s down to CU or Oregon.

Since he left CU in his “last four in”, we can assume that he has the PAC12 AQ as roughly deserving of the same respect as tiny conference AQs.

He also moved Mississippi State (to a 9 seed), Colorado State (to a 9 seed), and Texas A&M (to a 10 seed) and left CU unchanged; I understand that MSU and A&M had good victories yesterday, but CSU LOST to a bubble team.

Plus they all have inarguably worse resumes than CU; the only major metric that puts any of them higher than CU is ESPNs stupid BPI.

View attachment 70483
Click to expand...
I think this is a great illustration of why SOR >>>>> SOS.

Sure, A&M played a much tougher schedule, but we also won 12% more of our games; so the SOR end up being really close.
 
Robert Sorell said:
The variance for what's projected for the Buffs at bracketmatrix seems a lot higher than most other teams; as high as #7, as low as out.

I like how INCC shows their projections, they're high on the Buffs, but with a very wide spread:

View attachment 70485

#5-8 if we win, #7-out if we lose.

I don't know what to think, I agree with @Dark Bohner , that this is dredging up some really bad memories from Tad's first season and getting snubbed.

I think we should be a #5/6 with a win, and a #7/#9 with a loss. Being an #11 would be an insult, but maybe the best case for a path to the second weekend.
Click to expand...
I just cannot fathom how a team could finish in the top 30 of NET, KenPom and (probably) SOR and be left out, especially with some of the teams generating buzz for at large bids.
 
Denver_sc said:
One day, I will stop looking at lunardis projections.

Today is not that day.

The man is a simpleton and a hack. The biggest proof is that he has no P12 team designated as an AQ in his latest bracket, when we know it’s down to CU or Oregon.

Since he left CU in his “last four in”, we can assume that he has the PAC12 AQ as roughly deserving of the same respect as tiny conference AQs.

He also moved Mississippi State (to a 9 seed), Colorado State (to a 9 seed), and Texas A&M (to a 10 seed) and left CU unchanged; I understand that MSU and A&M had good victories yesterday, but CSU LOST to a bubble team.

Plus they all have inarguably worse resumes than CU; the only major metric that puts any of them higher than CU is ESPNs stupid BPI.

View attachment 70483
Click to expand...
BPI also predicted wins for Utah and WSt the last two games before they were played (although the edge to WSU was small).
 
Last edited:
Robert Sorell said:
The variance for what's projected for the Buffs at bracketmatrix seems a lot higher than most other teams; as high as #7, as low as out.

I like how INCC shows their projections, they're high on the Buffs, but with a very wide spread:

View attachment 70485

#5-8 if we win, #7-out if we lose.

I don't know what to think, I agree with @Dark Bohner , that this is dredging up some really bad memories from Tad's first season and getting snubbed.

I think we should be a #5/6 with a win, and a #7/#9 with a loss. Being an #11 would be an insult, but maybe the best case for a path to the second weekend.
Click to expand...
It is ridiculous. I had Colorado as a lock with the WSU win because win or lose against the chards would not matter.

I bet if Arizona had won, Buffs would have have been a consensus lock this morning.

But now Oregon ****ed it all up. If the Buffs don’t get the automatic bid, I think the committee keeps them out because of the “weakness of the PAC 12”.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Trolley problem:

If Joe Lunardi and Andy Enfield are on the track the train is headed towards, and Dan Lanning and Jason Whitlock on are the other track that you can divert the train to, do you throw the switch?
Click to expand...
Wrong Oregon coach. As is, Enfield GONE. Put Dana on there and suddenly I have a dilemma.
 
I cruised around the bracketologists this morning and they all seem to have the Buffs in as a 10 or 11 seed, but we're showing up in three different regions depending on who you look at...
 
Joe Lunardi has taken the buffs off the bubble. We're a #10 seed in his bracket and playing the Nubs. His drop this morning has us safely in regardless of today's outcome. Let's go win a Championship boys!
 
Entering today:

#24 NET
#23 KenPom

Games to pay attention to:

COLORADO (24) vs oregon (61), 7pm, Fox

Wisconsin (21) vs Purdue (3), 11am, CBS - Go Boilermakers!

Miss State (32) vs Auburn (5), 11am, ESPN - Go Auburn!

Nebraska (31) vs Illinois (16), 1:30pm, CBS - Go Illini!

Texas A&M (42) vs Florida (28), 1:30pm, ESPN - Go aTm!

Temple (198) vs FAU (33), 3pm, ESPN2 - Go Temple! (we need the AAC as a 1-bid league & FAU needs to lose here to not be an at-large)

New Mexico (22) vs SDSU (18), 4pm, ESPN - Go Aztecs!

NC State (68) vs North Carolina (7), 6:30pm, ESPN - Go Tar Heels! (Don't want a bid theft)

TX Southern (276) vs Grambling (285), 7:30pm, ESPNU - Go Grambling to make the Dance!
 
Noob question but as an automatic qualifier (aq) does that mean we are a lock for the ncaa tournament?
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I could also see the committee matching us up with CSU in an 8/9 or 7/10 game
Click to expand...
Correct me if I’m wrong, but they usually try to not do rematches

We may be at the point where we’re a 8 or 9 seed, which may actually be worse for us.

10 or 11 seed should be just fine. Get in and hope for a couple favorable matchups
 
Best case scenario is we win tonight and end up a 6 or 7 seed.

Worst case is lose and end up probably a 8 or 9 seed. Makes the 2nd game very difficult
 
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