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CU @ UCF - September 28 @ 1:30 PM MT Game Thread

I am now seeing spreads from 14 to 14.5. Vegas is begging folks to take CU. That always makes me wonder what they know that the public doesn’t know.
They know that we are going to get smashed. The last team of this caliber we played at their house beat us like a drum
 
This matchup is worst-case scenario for CU. A quarterback that can run and has no interest in testing CU's pass defense. They will not let Shedeur get more than 3 possessions per half, imo. This will be a ****ING grind. Like, 21-7 grind
 
Box Score scouting:

KJ Jefferson is a "running QB", but has 26 rushing attempts on the season (29 total but 3 sacks) for 153 yards (5.8 ypc) with a long of 14 yards and 1 TD. He averages 187 passing yards/game on 62% comp.

As a team, UCF has 61 total passing attempts on the season to 165 total rushing attempts (73% run), so as unbalanced as we are with our passing game, they are just as unbalanced and one dimensional in the run game.

As far as their defense goes... They are 94th in pass defense (238.7 ypg) and 5th in run defense (64 ypg).

Their schedule to this point has been New Hampshire, Sam Houston and eeking out a win over TCU (35-34).

Conclusion:

Without having watched a single snap of UCF this season, I would say CU's offensive strength of the passing game feeds into their biggest weakness which is stopping the pass. Likewise, they seemingly can't get to the QB against similar or far inferior opponents, so that bodes well with our pass protection issues. CU has been very good against the designed RB run game, which is what UCF mostly wants to do.

IMO, this game is going to come down to whether or not the CU offense can continue with the explosive offensive scoring plays, which should be there, and force UCF to throw more.
 
They really only have one receiving threat though. After Hudson, their TE has 6 catches for 95 yards and no one else has 50 yards receiving for the season. Let Travis shadow Hudson and key on the run. Removing the QB runs, we're just over 100 yards rushing allowed per game, and most of the QB rushing yards were against pass D, not off of designed runs. When the defense is playing run D, they've been really solid.
It’s really hard to do a shadow properly in college. If you do it and you run man on one with the rest of the defense in zone, it requires the defense to move their assignments if the shadowed guy is moved in motion to the other side of the field. Either that, or you shadow but in zone keep all in zone. And then, the offense can use motion to tell whether you are in zone or man every down.
 
Also, the focus of the defensive gameplan will obviously be on stopping the RB designed runs, but also the designed QB run, which I don't think they've really focused on through the first 4 games (maybe a bit for NDSU). UCF is going to have some success. GM is a good coach and KJ fits his offense well, but I still think people are sleeping on this run defense and our DC.
 
It’s really hard to do a shadow properly in college. If you do it and you run man on one with the rest of the defense in zone, it requires the defense to move their assignments if the shadowed guy is moved in motion to the other side of the field. Either that, or you shadow but in zone keep all in zone. And then, the offense can use motion to tell whether you are in zone or man every down.
We're in man the majority of the time though.
 
Good point. CU could effectively contain their run game, while also having success in the passing game, and still be in danger of losing if they have a Special Teams performance like they did this past weekend.

It would be nice to get just a little bit out of the punt return game at some point. It has killed us in field position thus far.
 
Box Score scouting:

KJ Jefferson is a "running QB", but has 26 rushing attempts on the season (29 total but 3 sacks) for 153 yards (5.8 ypc) with a long of 14 yards and 1 TD. He averages 187 passing yards/game on 62% comp.

As a team, UCF has 61 total passing attempts on the season to 165 total rushing attempts (73% run), so as unbalanced as we are with our passing game, they are just as unbalanced and one dimensional in the run game.

As far as their defense goes... They are 94th in pass defense (238.7 ypg) and 5th in run defense (64 ypg).

Their schedule to this point has been New Hampshire, Sam Houston and eeking out a win over TCU (35-34).

Conclusion:

Without having watched a single snap of UCF this season, I would say CU's offensive strength of the passing game feeds into their biggest weakness which is stopping the pass. Likewise, they seemingly can't get to the QB against similar or far inferior opponents, so that bodes well with our pass protection issues. CU has been very good against the designed RB run game, which is what UCF mostly wants to do.

IMO, this game is going to come down to whether or not the CU offense can continue with the explosive offensive scoring plays, which should be there, and force UCF to throw more.
**** it, let's put @NWD Buff on a plane.
 
It maybe over simplifying things, but to me it looks like UCF runs a similar offense to NDSU except they have better athletes. The UCF QB is a big guy and hard to get down. He isn't the most accurate passer, but is good enough. The run game has a lateral run, straight ahead run, and QB run built into each play. The QB can also step back and throw. With all the movement he often finds someone open who gets lost in coverage.

The field goal kicker had a couple kicks that were low trajectory, similar to Mata. We may be even here.

TV announcers said that UCF has a strong return game. I didn't see it, but we need someone to put the ball through the endzone (like every other team).

In the TCU game the front 4 were able to get to the QB. The TCU offense had the most success hitting 5-7 yard passes in the zone. The TCU QB isn't as accurate as SS, but he gets the ball out a hell of a lot quicker.
 
The Baylor game was more due to special teams, but CU digging holes in the first half is the biggest issue thus far, imo.

I do think the offense is slowly progressing, but its simply not consistent enough to allow that to happen and win. Baylor is obviously the exception
 
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