Dennis Dodd's hot seat rankings

[jizzrag85]

You are arguing the exception. I am arguing the rule of what the data say.

MM is now recruiting personnel, that on average, will go about 0.500 in the coming years.

I’ll stick with the data that clearly show stars matter in the aggregate.

We can agree to disagree than, at least we can do that peacefully, which is nice. I’m with you and I get what you’re saying and I don’t disagree with your point that stars matter. I would argue though 15/16 are the classes responsible for 2017’s results. In 2016 we finished 52nd in average star rating at 83.53. In 2017, 73 schools were over .500, 3 finished 6-6. So we recruited at 52 but finished at 77 or worse. I point to coaching, there isn’t an excuse to not be better than those other 70 schools, it’s an above .500 class. In 17/18 we’ve recruited at 85% average and this year we’re currently around an 85, this may improve, we shall see. But realistically there are only 10-15 schools (MAYBE) that recruit high enough to say they’re upper echelon. Everyone else is in the 88% or lower range with 40-50 being 85% or above. CU is in that top 50 consistently for 3 years now (if 19’ continues) and if 70+ schools can go above .500 or better how can we say that a school in the top 50’s best odds are a .491 winning percentage? It doesn’t compute. There are only a handful of true championship teams. Everyone else gets the left overs and it’s up to the coaching to get the most out of them, If everyone else can do it so can CU. I promise, I wish we could land 21 Kyle fords a year and I’d be ecstatic if that was our reality, I’m always hoping for the highest rated recruits and I track it all the time, so we agree, stars matter. We still have the ability and talent to win 8 games a year with the level of talent we’re now recruiting, that’s my opinion.

 

[lvbuff]

Quick question for Hawg. What percentage of the variance is accounted for in the .491 #? What other factors might contribute?

 

[Highlander]

Rebuilding a program has a likelihood of 17.45%. One of the hardest things to do, from the cellar to mediocre. Check.

MM hasn't done only a little better than Hawkins. Our program is many times better than we were when he got here. Hawkins left us worse off. There's really no comparison.

Can MM get us to the next level? I think all signs are yes if he can find and develop some interior guys. So far, he hasn't. He's band-aiding the front 3 and OLBs (that's 5 key guys) with Jucos.

Trust me that I am not a Hawkins' apologist, but given the **** show that followed him, I'm not even sure how we evaluate his tenure fully beyond far from good enough.

Example: Skippy thrived for two years with GB's foundation and his injection of philosophy and younger skill players, and then **** went to hell.

I absolutely believe the team is better off today than when MM started. I would love for him to have another solid year here (8-9 wins?) and then leverage that to improve consistently going forward. It will be fun to watch to see if we can achieve that goal.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Cellar to mediocre = hard
Mediocre to championship = very, very hard

MM is not the one for the latter, if this if what CU wants.

How many current coaches in the conference are the caliber of the latter? Helton, Shaw, Peterson, and now Chip Kelly are the only ones who’ve proven it, and Saban, Meyer, Swinney, and Fisher are the only active National Championship winning coaches. I’m just wondering how attainable getting and keeping that coach in Boulder really is?

 

[hawg1]

Quick question for Hawg. What percentage of the variance is accounted for in the .491 #? What other factors might contribute?

That’s a great question and was not covered in this study as I recall. Sage publications had a study that, if I recall correction, attributed 75 Percent of winning to “talent” (and I’m not sure if there measured it with stars). There is a correlation but, assuredly, it’s not perfect. I’ll try to find the study.

 

[hawg1]

How many current coaches in the conference are the caliber of the latter? Helton, Shaw, Peterson, and now Chip Kelly are the only ones who’ve proven it, and Saban, Meyer, Swinney, and Fisher are the only active National Championship winning coaches. I’m just wondering how attainable getting and keeping that coach in Boulder really is?

Good question. I would hate to see CU turn into a stepping stone school, but it could happen.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Good question. I would hate to see CU turn into a stepping stone school, but it could happen.

Could Chev be Lincoln Riley or Dabo Swinney? Assuming he proves to be a top notch OC and gameplanner, would he hang on with CU with the intention of taking over as HC of his alma mater? The only chance I see CU getting and keeping a Championship caliber HC is in the very very slim chance that he is that guy.

 

[jizzrag85]

Could Chev be Lincoln Riley or Dabo Swinney? Assuming he proves to be a top notch OC and gameplanner, would he hang on with CU with the intention of taking over as HC of his alma mater? The only chance I see CU getting and keeping a Championship caliber HC is in the very very slim chance that he is that guy.

He definitely has the personality it seems to be that kind of coach. Guys love him and want to play for him.

 

[Hugegroove]

The Buffs FB program hasn't received the kind of support it deserves from the President, Board of Regents, and Faculty since Gordon Gee was the Schools President. IMO, Former presidents Judith Albino, Liz Hoffman, and now current President Benson including some Regents have been anti FB. You don't see these attitudes from faculty associated with other successful FB programs around the country. Good FB coaches are aware of the past and present faculty attitudes towards FB at CU and this makes RG's job that much tougher, if and when he decides it's time to replace Mac.

 

[Buffnik]

There's a lot of evidence that he can put out a dumpster fire and build a competitive football organization. I'd say he's elite at that.

Whether MM is a coach who can build a consistent winner that regularly competes for championships is an open question.

Seems like we have some people who think they "know" that MM can't be a championship coach. I suspect that even if CU wins the South for the 2nd time in 3 seasons in 2018, we'll still have people questioning whether he's the type of coach who can regularly compete for Pac-12 Championships.

 

[Go Buffs]

I suspect that even if CU wins the South for the 2nd time in 3 seasons in 2018, we'll still have people questioning whether he's the type of coach who can regularly compete for Pac-12 Championships.

You can put me in that camp, until he proves he can recruit anywhere near the levels of USC, Oregon, and Washington.

 

[onealcd]

You can put me in that camp, until he proves he can recruit anywhere near the levels of USC, Oregon, and Washington.

Lol.

 

[Dark Bohner]

You can put me in that camp, until he proves he can recruit anywhere near the levels of USC, Oregon, and Washington.

Oregon and Washington are more realistic. USC just has an inherent number of advantages that Colorado doesn’t.

 

[Bufffan68]

I’m not a big believer in MMacs recruiting chops, but could some of this be attributed to him wanting guys to fit his system (ie TCU) and not so much going for stars?

 

[MtnBuff]

I’m not a big believer in MMacs recruiting chops, but could some of this be attributed to him wanting guys to fit his system (ie TCU) and not so much going for stars?

I'm coming to the conclusion that he just doesn't like the recruiting process and doesn't believe that the reward is worth the effort. He is still from that school of thought that given "good enough" talent he can coach it to a level to win.

Unfortunately we are six years in to his time here with one winning season to show for it. Our finish in the PAC12 south has been 6,6,6,1,6.

I was going to say that maybe that approach works in a league like the old WAC where he came from but he never won that league either.

Recruiting is the lifeblood of a program. More often than not talent wins over coaching. USC has had some terrible coaches but how often are they not at least in a bowl game, talent means more than effort.

How many programs out there do not have at least the great majority of their staff out busting tail on the recruiting trail. Doesn't mean they all have to be great recruiters but at least they work hard at it. Our staff has not been that and I think it is a reflection of our head coach.

In the past couple years we have been recruiting harder and better but it still may be too little too late. The failure to recruit both quality and quantity on both lines is showing on the field and will be the undoing of MM at CU. We can have all the QBs, WRs, DBs, you want but games are won on the LOS.

 

[leftybuff]

Unfortunately we are six years in to his time here with one winning season to show for it. Our finish in the PAC12 south has been 6,6,6,1,6.

The failure to recruit both quality and quantity on both lines is showing on the field and will be the undoing of MM at CU. We can have all the QBs, WRs, DBs, you want but games are won on the LOS.

Reader's Digest version, well said.

 

[hawg1]

There's a lot of evidence that he can put out a dumpster fire and build a competitive football organization. I'd say he's elite at that.

Whether MM is a coach who can build a consistent winner that regularly competes for championships is an open question.

Seems like we have some people who think they "know" that MM can't be a championship coach. I suspect that even if CU wins the South for the 2nd time in 3 seasons in 2018, we'll still have people questioning whether he's the type of coach who can regularly compete for Pac-12 Championships.

If he strings together four 8+ seasons, I’ll be glad to change my mind.

It’s not in his DNA in my opinion. We’ve seen too much already to think he is this kind of coach IMO.

 

[hawg1]

I’m not a big believer in MMacs recruiting chops, but could some of this be attributed to him wanting guys to fit his system (ie TCU) and not so much going for stars?

What system is that? O needs an identity.
D has scheme (3-4) needs identity as well.

 

[Duff Man]

Good question. I would hate to see CU turn into a stepping stone school, but it could happen.

Most schools are stepping stones.

 

[MtnBuff]

What system is that? O needs an identity.
D has scheme (3-4) needs identity as well.

No offense has an identity until it can consistently block somebody. We haven't done that yet.

 

[buffaholic]

Good question. I would hate to see CU turn into a stepping stone school, but it could happen.

We've been a stepping stone school for more than a decade. We were a stepping stone school for our entire history until Mac won a national title. What Bill Mac did was unprecedented. I was a non fan then living in California. Everyone, and I mean everyone, assumed he was cheating like ****.

Return to Dominance! It was a sliver of time.

 

[MtnBuff]

Everybody talks about stepping stones but @Duff Man is right. Unless you are one of the top 5-10 elite programs in the nation you are a stepping stone.
Even then you might end up being a stepping stone to the NFL. Remember that Saban was at LSU then jumped to the Dolphins before jumping back to Bama'

I am perfectly fine with being a stepping stone if we are a high stepping stone. If CU is doing well enough for one of the those very top programs to want our coach then I'm good with it. That would mean we are in significant bowl games and playing on national TV.

Thing is that if CU is contending to win our conference, going to major bowls, etc. we are a good enough situation that not a lot of jobs are better. We aren't going to see coaches leave for mid-level programs in other conferences.

There will always be those "dream jobs" out there but if we are losing head coaches to them then we are winning big enough that we will be the step up for the guy we select from another school.

 

[Buffnik]

Colin Cowherd had a good comment about “stepping stone” jobs. He said in his career field, every job is a stepping stone unless you’re hosting the Tonight Show or a few others that may be equivalent.

In coaching, it’s the same thing. Hell, Florida State just got its coach poached.

 

[hawg1]

We've been a stepping stone school for more than a decade. We were a stepping stone school for our entire history until Mac won a national title. What Bill Mac did was unprecedented. I was a non fan then living in California. Everyone, and I mean everyone, assumed he was cheating like ****.

Return to Dominance! It was a sliver of time.

Good point. Who was the last to use it as a stepping stone? Do you count Neuheisal? Before him?

 

[WarBuff]

Good point. Who was the last to use it as a stepping stone? Do you count Neuheisal? Before him?

Neuweasel should have been stoned, and I don't mean trippin.

 

[Duff Man]

Colin Cowherd had a good comment about “stepping stone” jobs. He said in his career field, every job is a stepping stone unless you’re hosting the Tonight Show or a few others that may be equivalent.

In coaching, it’s the same thing. Hell, Florida State just got its coach poached.

And then Notre Dame had their DC poached. Money talks.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Good point. Who was the last to use it as a stepping stone? Do you count Neuheisal? Before him?

I mean, who knows what would have happened with Barnett had "the scandal" not happened, and you bet your ass Hawkins would have been on to the next one had he actually been a good coach. Embree probably would have been a Buff for life (heh) had he worked out, and it's been widely discussed that MM is in Boulder until the right SEC job comes calling...

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Colin Cowherd had a good comment about “stepping stone” jobs. He said in his career field, every job is a stepping stone unless you’re hosting the Tonight Show or a few others that may be equivalent.

In coaching, it’s the same thing. Hell, Florida State just got its coach poached.

I know FSU is a better job than Oregon, but Taggart used Oregon as a stepping stone, and I would bet that Cristobal is going to jump back to the SEC or at least back to the South if/when the opportunity arises.

 

[Duff Man]

FWIW, this whole discussion is why I harp on recruiting so much. The "next guy" needs talent. When you start performing mental gymnastics like "system fit" to excuse mediocre to poor recruiting, you just end up with a situation for the next HC where he has to have the "real talk" about the overall talent level.

 

[buffaholic]

Good point. Who was the last to use it as a stepping stone? Do you count Neuheisal? Before him?

Nobody was successful enough except Bill McCartney who chose to stay here.
Neuheisel used it for a bigger UW contract.
Barnett probably would have stayed here had he had success, but we'll never know.
Everyone before BillyMac was a different era that saw few HC's jump around.
Everyone since Barnett have failed to have enough success to test the waters!

And I'm still waiting for the credible evidence pointing to Coach MM having interest in any job (Ole Miss, Vanderbilt). If it came from a good source, that would satisfy me but I've yet to see that brought here.