If the Pac-12 expanded thru G5 and you had to choose...

[Buffnik]

Moot discussion, as the Pac 12 will grow in 2022 (one year before the current TV rights expire) by adding UT, OU, OSU and either TT, UH, or KU).

I think that TT is actually the most likely target from the Big 12. They're the most western and have the most historical ties to the Pac-12, having been in the same conference with UA/ASU/CU. Might be a move to get the Pac-12 into Texas the way that the SEC did so with one program that wouldn't have enough pull to significantly alter the conference DNA. At least that's the one I could potentially see happening before 2022. Would be a good add along with UNLV to get to 14 -- pairing CU with TT and Utah with UNLV for travel purposes.

 

[SINKRATZ]

I think that TT is actually the most likely target from the Big 12. They're the most western and have the most historical ties to the Pac-12, having been in the same conference with UA/ASU/CU. Might be a move to get the Pac-12 into Texas the way that the SEC did so with one program that wouldn't have enough pull to significantly alter the conference DNA. At least that's the one I could potentially see happening before 2022. Would be a good add along with UNLV to get to 14 -- pairing CU with TT and Utah with UNLV for travel purposes.

I don't know that adding a team from Lubbock equates to what the SEC did by adding ATM. Would adding Tech get the Pac much exposure to Dallas?

 

[4DemBuffs]

I don't know that adding a team from Lubbock equates to what the SEC did by adding ATM. Would adding Tech get the Pac much exposure to Dallas?

Yeah. I'm having a hard rationalizing what exactly TT brings to the table other than some years with other teams in the PAC-12?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Much rather have TCU than TT

 

[Buffnik]

I don't know that adding a team from Lubbock equates to what the SEC did by adding ATM. Would adding Tech get the Pac much exposure to Dallas?

Yes. But that market's very divided. UT is strong everywhere with TCU being popular currently. North suburbs you have Oklahoma popular. South & East you bring Baylor into play. aTm is going to have some support anywhere in the state but is usually 3rd behind UT and the local college. And TT is going to have as much or more support than anyone besides UT if you look at anything west of I-35 while doing pretty well in those cities that are connected by that highway (DFW, Austin, San Antonio).

This map from 2016 is a great one to play with and get an idea. (Also points to how much work CU's got to do to build its brand within Colorado - we're barely more popular than UT & the Ducks).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-fan-map.html

 

[4DemBuffs]

Yes. But that market's very divided. UT is strong everywhere with TCU being popular currently. North suburbs you have Oklahoma popular. South & East you bring Baylor into play. aTm is going to have some support anywhere in the state but is usually 3rd behind UT and the local college. And TT is going to have as much or more support than anyone besides UT if you look at anything west of I-35 while doing pretty well in those cities that are connected by that highway (DFW, Austin, San Antonio).

This map from 2016 is a great one to play with and get an idea. (Also points to how much work CU's got to do to build its brand within Colorado - we're barely more popular than UT & the Ducks).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-fan-map.html

Still don't get it. What kind of numbers are you talking about with TT? Do they get 30% of the Dallas and Houston markets, for example?

 

[SerenityBuff]

All of these options are ****. But Utah is the least ****. If UNLV gets a new stadium, I'd rather go with them.

 

[SINKRATZ]

Yes. But that market's very divided. UT is strong everywhere with TCU being popular currently. North suburbs you have Oklahoma popular. South & East you bring Baylor into play. aTm is going to have some support anywhere in the state but is usually 3rd behind UT and the local college. And TT is going to have as much or more support than anyone besides UT if you look at anything west of I-35 while doing pretty well in those cities that are connected by that highway (DFW, Austin, San Antonio).

This map from 2016 is a great one to play with and get an idea. (Also points to how much work CU's got to do to build its brand within Colorado - we're barely more popular than UT & the Ducks).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-fan-map.html

I'm not an expert on football fandom in Texas, but none of what you posted seems like a reason to add TT and I see zero parallel to the SEC adding aTm. They seem to be at best the 6th or 7th most popular program in Dallas (behind UT, aTm, Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, and maybe Houston and SMU). I just don't see how adding them gets Texans appreciably more interested in Pac 12 football.

 

[Buffnik]

Still don't get it. What kind of numbers are you talking about with TT? Do they get 30% of the Dallas and Houston markets, for example?

Over 60% of the share in Lubbock and in the 5-12% range in the western suburbs of the I-35 cities. UT is about 35-50% everywhere that's not a home base of another program and even in those competitor hotspots for others they generally draw 15-25% of the fans. aTm very similar to TT, but with its popularity east of I-35 where there's a whole lot more state population.

 

[Duff Man]

I think even TT fans would have trouble rationalizing that their support is close to A&M, which is a clear #2 in the state. To give you one stat which paints a pretty clear pucture: A&M has an enrollment advantage by about 25,000.

 

[4DemBuffs]

Over 60% of the share in Lubbock and in the 5-12% range in the western suburbs of the I-35 cities. UT is about 35-50% everywhere that's not a home base of another program and even in those competitor hotspots for others they generally draw 15-25% of the fans. aTm very similar to TT, but with its popularity east of I-35 where there's a whole lot more state population.

I appreciate it but, I'm not with you on this one. I just don't see it. If it came to it, I think Houston is the horse you want. IMO.

 

[Buffnik]

I think even TT fans would have trouble rationalizing that their support is close to A&M, which is a clear #2 in the state. To give you one stat which paints a pretty clear pucture: A&M has an enrollment advantage by about 25,000.

Not what I was saying, just to be clear. TT is generally #2 behind UT in west Texas (and #1 in Lubbock metro). aTm is generally #2 in the much more populous & valuable east Texas (and #1 around College Station). OU is generally #2 behind UT in north Texas. And the home bases of other programs are generally going to be the home team #1 with UT #2. LSU gets some love around Houston, but UH is generally #2 to UT a hair above aTm. Baylor, TCU, UTSA and UTEP don't register outside their home, while SMU and Rice get about nothing.

 

[sackman]

Or, we could just avoid expansion into Texas under any cirsumstances.

I like that plan better.

 

[Buffnik]

I appreciate it but, I'm not with you on this one. I just don't see it. If it came to it, I think Houston is the horse you want. IMO.

The main problem with UH is how far away from Pac-12 geography it's located. It's about the same distance from Houston to Charlotte as it is from Houston to either Denver or Tucson... and CU is a geographic eastern outlier for the Pac-12. Lubbock's in the 450 mile range closer to the Pac-12 vs Houston -- about the same as driving from Denver to Lawrence, KS while Houston's like driving from Denver to Indianapolis.

 

[onealcd]

I don't think Scott or the presidents want Houston in the Pac-12 but they should use that as a tactic to break up the Big-12 when the TV contracts come up again.

 

[Duff Man]

Not what I was saying, just to be clear. TT is generally #2 behind UT in west Texas (and #1 in Lubbock metro). aTm is generally #2 in the much more populous & valuable east Texas (and #1 around College Station). OU is generally #2 behind UT in north Texas. And the home bases of other programs are generally going to be the home team #1 with UT #2. LSU gets some love around Houston, but UH is generally #2 to UT a hair above aTm. Baylor, TCU, UTSA and UTEP don't register outside their home, while SMU and Rice get about nothing.

Having trouble believing A&M is not a clear #2 in Houston, and that it does not push UT there.

 

[Buffnik]

Having trouble believing A&M is not a clear #2 in Houston, and that it does not push UT there.

Not even close. According to the zoom in on the map I linked, UT dominates the Houston metro with aTm and UH fighting for 2nd in the various zip codes and each having about half the support. As you get into the areas east of Houston, it's UT with aTm & LSU battling it out as a distant 2nd. On this map, Baylor's in green, aTm is in maroon, LSU is yellow and everything shaded orange is UT.

West Texas looks like this (with TT 2nd to UT -- though there are under 2 million people in this region):

 

[4DemBuffs]

The main problem with UH is how far away from Pac-12 geography it's located. It's about the same distance from Houston to Charlotte as it is from Houston to either Denver or Tucson... and CU is a geographic eastern outlier for the Pac-12. Lubbock's in the 450 mile range closer to the Pac-12 vs Houston -- about the same as driving from Denver to Lawrence, KS while Houston's like driving from Denver to Indianapolis.

That's all well and good but, isn't the point asses in seats and TV sets? It's the jet age. 450 miles is nothing. It's a gear up, gear down flight. I am struggling to believe that over the long term, TT puts more asses in seats and TV sets than Houston.

I may be way off base but I just don't see it. Houston's only problem is the conference they are in. You put them in the PAC with games and teams that matter and the fan base and exposure to that program explodes and will blow away anything TT could possibly provide even in their best year.

 

[Duff Man]

I will have to dive into the methodology later, but it was always my impression that Houston has been a strong anchor of support for A&M, even when it was more of a regional brand.

 

[RiverBuff]

@Buffnik . . . I cannot disagree with you about TT. You and your analysis makes sense, but . . . . I think TEXAS CHRISTIAN University. -- two of those words repulse me -- may be the better option. I think they'd be most willing to get out from UT's influence and would capture a significant part of the DFW market, bringing a lot of (north) Texas into play. More to say, but it's all worthless to conjecture, including my opinion.

 

[onealcd]

I was under the impression TCU didn't bring great ratings, small enrollment and lots of competition around them.

 

[Hunchback Quaker]

I think UNLV is the only definite answer at this point. The only negative is academics, which would drag the Pac-12 down a bit. But really, any expansion candidate other than Air Force would do that of the options provided

 

[RiverBuff]

I was under the impression TCU didn't bring great ratings, small enrollment and lots of competition around them.

I think your impression, which goes along with Buffnik's conclusions, is correct. But that's why I think they'd be most willing and able to "go west". Maybe a fan base/ratings develops more with the move.

Edit: Better than any of the other "choices" in the poll on this thread (except for Utah). Which is the point in wanting to 'add' to the conference footprint and market.

 

[SINKRATZ]

What is the big benefit to the Pac 12 in holding onto its strict academic standards for conference membership? Other than some moral high ground related to caring about academics, what does it do for us?

 

[Trufflesauce]

FWIW, these are the schools I saw the most fans for while growing up in south Texas:

1. Texas
2. A&M
3. Texas Tech

I've only ever met one TCU fan, and have never met a Houston or SMU fan. As much as I dislike TTU, that anecdotal evidence makes me think they would add the most value outside of UT. I'd put TCU and Houston after them in no particular order, and SMU doesn't even seem worth considering.

 

[patebuff]

What is the big benefit to the Pac 12 in holding onto its strict academic standards for conference membership? Other than some moral high ground related to caring about academics, what does it do for us?

So, when the Pac 12 gets passed by, it gives everyone a built in excuse?

 

[SINKRATZ]

FWIW, these are the schools I saw the most fans for while growing up in south Texas:

1. Texas
2. A&M
3. Texas Tech

I've only ever met one TCU fan, and have never met a Houston or SMU fan. As much as I dislike TTU, that anecdotal evidence makes me think they would add the most value outside of UT. I'd put TCU and Houston after them in no particular order, and SMU doesn't even seem worth considering.

How long ago was that?

 

[Trufflesauce]

How long ago was that?

Up until about 9 years ago.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

None of the above.

 

[buffaholic]

I see no case for UNLV. Zip.