What factors are important to you when building a case for a new Pac member?
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If the Pac-12 expanded thru G5 and you had to choose...
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
I see a great case for UNLV. Especially if they can get their stadium built. The real shame is that the Raiders will get there and suck up most of the sports dollars. Still, the UNLV campus is about a mile from the Strip (which means it's a block away).
Fan support.
This town doesn't care. I'm in Vegas as I write this. The population in the surrounding 250 miles is not large enough once you strip out the nomads who will go back home in a few years. In fact, it's not yet a solid MWC town.
It will grow into a P5 town, but 20 years away still.
What does it bring besides a party destination?
First, I think your impressions of what makes an area able to be a P5 town is a bit off. The bar is much higher to be an NFL city and Las Vegas reached that bar.
On other things:
1. Makes geographic sense within the conference as a 3M population state that's currently a flyover & would connect to own west.
2. Las Vegas-Henderson is the 29th largest metropolitan area in the US (and one of the fastest growing) - has become central hub of conference.
3. Top 25 state for football recruiting -- equal to Utah and Washington at the back end of that with AZ Top 15 and CA #3.
4. In basketball, increases conference prestige with a Top 25 program (much needed with UCLA & UA Top 10 & Utah our next best at #39 in recent all-time AP).
5. Drawbacks that need to be remedied in next 5 years: academic rank (need to be Tier 1 in 2020 ratings and on track) & football success (new facilities great but need to translate to on-field success).
1 & 2 were addressed. Lots of temporary population with no ties to UNLV. Won't stay long enough for that to develop. ASU suffered thru this for years. The surrounding population is zero unlike the east coast. The population that is there has to be discounted by a large factor, perhaps 75%
Go to a UNLV game and compare it to a smaller P12 market like Utah, WSU, OSU. No comparison. Nobody cares but you and Nikita.
NFL will draw lots of visiting fans. PAC12 fans will get over the LV visits soon enough. It's also an NFL town. Much less college educated. While I have no data to support that, I think it's obvious.
Fly over state status means nothing. Same with Pahrump.
Go to a UNLV game and compare it to a smaller P12 market like Utah, WSU, OSU. No comparison. Nobody cares but you and Nikita.
NFL will draw lots of visiting fans. PAC12 fans will get over the LV visits soon enough. It's also an NFL town. Much less college educated. While I have no data to support that, I think it's obvious.
Fly over state status means nothing. Same with Pahrump.
The education level rank of a state is inversely related to whether it's a college sports hotbed. More educated = more likely to be an NFL fan.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/karste...cated-states-in-the-u-s-in-2017/#7dfa9eb771be
You are wrong in thinking that highly educated areas are more likely to be college sports fans.
fwiw, I see going into Nevada/Las Vegas right now as very similar to the move the Pac-8 made in the last 70s by betting on Arizona's growth and the accompanying growth that would be seen with the universities. Las Vegas metro is very similar to the Phoenix metro at that time.
Your data on education vs college sports has more to do with if they have a in-state program that is worth a ****. Oklahoma does, CT does not. In fact, UCONN is the only instate program, and it may as well be in Grand Junction to the highly educated (read, privately educated) east coasters. UCONN is in the sticks. They have huge basketball following though.
By contrast, Oklahoma has no NFL team, and their uneducated have grown up for generations rooting for the sooners.
These are very different situations, than a startup like UNLV. They Don't support their program. Why will that change? It won't in my opinion.
By contrast, Oklahoma has no NFL team, and their uneducated have grown up for generations rooting for the sooners.
These are very different situations, than a startup like UNLV. They Don't support their program. Why will that change? It won't in my opinion.
In other words, if UNLV was in a P5 conference and winning you believe that the market would be great.
No, even then, it would not add enough, given my discount factor of their population, demographics, etc.
The difference in our thinking is my family moved from New England to Phoenix in 1972. The "real" population in these cities that are highly nomadic, for CFB is much less than established populations like Madison WI. That was my observation.
I believe the population (TAM) is there but after discounting above, the SAM is well below what is viable. For at least 10 more years.
P5 status won't change everything. They have zero local support today. Zero. I wouldn't ignore that fact.
And 10 years is close to the likely timeline for realignment based on media deals expiring in the 2023-25 timeframe. I'm not saying to add UNLV today. There's no margin in that. I also wouldn't necessarily take UNLV over the financial windfall of UT-OU-TTorOSUorKU that could present itself with a requirement to take 2 "don't really wants" in order to get OU and UT. But I do believe that UNLV is a possibility that should be #1 on the non-Big 12 list and would add significantly to the conference in the long-term.
I don't get how someone could be so against MORE trips to Vegas.
I don't get the statement "people would get sick of trips to Vegas."
I think there are several factors that contribute to their limited support. A major factor is the location and condition of their stadium. It's out in the middle of nowhere.
I don't know if they could pull it off, but a joint marketing effort with the Raiders would be effective, IMO. Sell a package deal where you can keep the same seat for both Raiders and UNLV games.
Anyway, I see a lot of potential with UNLV that isn't there with schools like CSU, Boise, UNM, SDSU, etc.
I don't know if they could pull it off, but a joint marketing effort with the Raiders would be effective, IMO. Sell a package deal where you can keep the same seat for both Raiders and UNLV games.
Anyway, I see a lot of potential with UNLV that isn't there with schools like CSU, Boise, UNM, SDSU, etc.
Man, nik took his Cialis and Viagra; He's expanding into the bush all over the country.
Mention the word "expansion" to Nik and he gets horny.
Interesting discussion. Wonder if WSU and OSU would be in the conference based on many of these requirements.
Anyway, I sure am glad we're in the PAC-12. I was surprised, but 'jealous' when UA-ASU left the WAC for the PAC-8 (in 1978), and left behind some of these schools under discussion like UNM and CSU.
Anyway, I sure am glad we're in the PAC-12. I was surprised, but 'jealous' when UA-ASU left the WAC for the PAC-8 (in 1978), and left behind some of these schools under discussion like UNM and CSU.
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I'm not aware of any co-marketing or packaging deals between CFB and the NFL. I think that's unlikely at best.
The NFL will compete for those fans, and that's another big factor against UNLV in my opinion.
If we are talking 10 years out, I'd project UNLV as doable. I think CSU is also viable given the expected growth of the front range.
But both have the NFL to compete with, and both (like Boulder) have a fan base "not from here".
Fans in Boise and Albuquerque would be all in, given there's little competition. But in the end, the population just won't be there.
SDSU is more viable if you believe the NFL is gone forever, which I think is likely. In fact, I'd put it at the top of my list.
WSU more than OSU based on western Washington at least being served as a somewhat different market than where UW is located. Corvallis doesn't bring anything besides an in-state rivalry due to Eugene being so close (less than 50 miles apart) and both bringing the Portland market. Adding CSU today would be like adding another OSU (probably better, actually) and the margin doesn't seem to be there unless in-state rivalry games go back to pre-cable & internet values when college sports was completely regional.
That was such a departure (UA-ASU) for the conference, going away from the pacific coast. I think that with UA-ASU and then CU-UU additions making the conference stronger in the minds of almost all Pac fans, there is now an acceptance of a conference identity that includes the Mountain Time Zone states. I also think there's reluctance on trying to expand that identity into the Central Time Zone. Particularly when all of the Big 12 other than Texas Tech is pretty much in the eastern third of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. I wonder if there might be more support for waiting until it makes financial sense to have a Pac program in western population centers (pick 4 from San Diego, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Boise and Reno) instead of pushing into the midwestern farm belt.
Yeah. Similar deals with Steelers/Pitt and Bucs/USF. They go in together on bonds and whatnot, but I'm almost certain PSLs and such are completely separate.
His erection on this subject has lasted for weeks. He needs to seek medical attention immediately.
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
I mentioned the UA/ASU grab before, but one thing bears repeating. The PAC has a history of outside-the-box thinking when it comes to expansion.
This was true when the acquired the zona schools. It happened again in the 90's when they almost pulled CU and uTerus.
Expect them to surprise us again in the future.
Big Jim
WTF?
Worst large city in the Western US. Hell is the next step down.
Big Jim
WTF?
The arguement that academics are a key factor in joining the Pac-12 are a bit of bullspit given the membership of WSU, OSU, and ASU. That said, CSU and SDSU are stronger academically than BSU and UNLV, I do not know about UNM. Nevada is a strong academic school compared to this lot but Reno is not a tenable solution for the PAC.
Supposedly, when they talk about academics it's about research intensity. Minimally want Carnegie Tier 1 (ASU, OSU & WSU are), but would really prefer AAU (none of the schools you listed are members). UNM is Tier 1. None of the others are, but UNLV is tracking there for the 2020 classifications based on research dollars and number of faculty. SDSU is probably not going to get there, UNR is farther behind, and BSU is hopeless since they're still transitioning from being a JUCO and having actual graduate level courses as a full-blown university.
RalphieRunr
Well-Known Member
I still don't have any red clothes, so it'd be cheaper for me if we stayed with Utah.
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
If we go back to the original question, the answer is none of the above....the only rival CU should have in the PAC is who is good, which means just focus the hate on USC and Washington and ignore the rest.
Deleted member 807
Guest
Going to LV = writing a check to the ****ing Raiders.
A good chunk of the hotel tax goes to fund the bad guy's stadium.
