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Mike MacIntyre: Does He Make It Through 2016?
- Thread starter DiggerBuffs
- Start date
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
Yeah I pretty much disagree with this entire post.
Will a few players flip? Sure, but you're not losing the whole class and a couple recruits are a small price to pay when you're trying to upgrade the head coach. And the rest about not getting an obvious upgrade is garbage unless you believe Mac is the right coach to turn this program into a winner. Otherwise you're choosing 4-5 wins a year to avoid the risk of hiring someone worse - that's a terrible, terrible strategy.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
MM would be winning a lot more than 4 games a year with better talent.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
A lot of coaches would.
Then he'd better get better talent. Simple.
Neuheisel is a much more flimsy choice. He won those two 10 win seasons with McCartney's players. Things started to slip pretty quickly 5-6 & 8-4. He proved to be middle level guy at the rest of his stops with fits and starts other than the one 11-1 one season (other coaches players) at UDub. I am glad he left.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
It's a good thing we aren't stuck with some guy who only won 33 games in 4 years here. Averaging more than 7 wins a season over 12 years as a head coach isn't good enough. We're much better off now.
I am in favor of keeping him at this point. I see him improving recruiting and improving staff. I am reluctant to pull the plug on him for that reason. He has to start winning, dont get me wrong, but to do that he has to upgrade above the current talent.
The main thing is this; I have no confidence in CUs administration to identify and hire that upgrade. Which in general is hard to do. Even for teams that are more serious about winning than CU they still go through 2-3 guys before finding the right one. We err towards being the dumbest smart guy in the room.
If we'd have hired a lifetime collegiate AD from the SEC or some established strong program that was a regular winner Id be more comfortable. Instead we hired the non athletics COO from the KC Royals who is 20 years removed from collegiate athletics. Hes proven he can manage and raise money and that hes upgrade over Bohn (at least Bohn fixed our MBB program). Why did Benson choose George? For his tremendous athletics background? Or for his marketing and management skills?
George has made two hires that have left a mixed feeling; Does JR Payne and her under .500 coaching record in sub level basketball strike you as a strong hire? For volleyball RG stayed in state hiring DUs coach, a former CSU assistant, who coached club teams at CU while earning his degree. Though Jesse Mahoney at least got a DU volleyball team into the NCAA tournament.
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DiggerBuffs
Well-Known Member
Make that the Texas Rangers actually. Rick George knows college athletics. Just because he is also a great fundraiser on top of it doesn't mean he can't hire the right people. You are comparing him to Mike Bohn somewhat here and Bohn went the easy route with Lappe and that failed, the easy route with Tad Boyle and that paid off and 3 football hires that have not paid off yet. I truly believe MacIntyre is a good coach, but he did not address deficiencies until Year 4 and let's be honest, we were gifted Chev because Walters left. Recruiting has improved due to Chev. Simple
Rick George is a very successful businessman and manager of people. You don't get to where he is without making more good personnel decisions than bad ones. If/when the time comes for RG to make his own hire at the head football position, I trust that he will put a lot of thought into it himself, leverage outside sources, and have done a thorough evaluation of multiple qualified candidates.
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I think RG would hire the right guy if it comes to that.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
If we fire MM and wind up with another G5 head coach, its change for the sake of change. Two reasons-One, we've been down this road twice. Second, is there a coach at that level not named Tom Herman who can honestly be considered an upgrade over what we've got? If RG doesn't feel like MM is the guy to fix this, then promote Jim Leavitt.
Lots of good G5 coaches have moved on to be excellent P5 coaches. Just don't let Mike Bohn make hires.
I like how all coaches are somehow the same? If we fire Mac because he doesn't get us to a bowl it's not change for the sake of change. It's change for the sake of hoping to get better. Not bowling is not an acceptable level at any school in a P5 conference.
Back-the-Buffs
Well-Known Member
http://campusinsiders.com/news/college-football-coaches-on-rise-03-31-2016
Here is a pretty good list of potential replacements. Lincoln Riley the OC at Oklahoma I think is someone that should be considered as well.
I really do hope MM is successful this year and we don't have to go through another coaching change but it is nice to know that there are some good candidates out there if it should come to that.
Most replacement coaches do worse than the coach they replace. That is a proven fact (and yes, I can locate the research if someone wants to challenge this fact).
So, the odds are that the coach you bring in will be worse than the coach you have now. But on the other hand, if you've discovered your current coach's ceiling, the only possible way to get better is by taking the chance and replacing your coach.
So the logical questions are: has MM reached his ceiling at CU, and/or can we afford to wait while he grows and gets to his ceiling?
If there is no tangible, measurable progress this year, I think you can fairly say that he's hit his ceiling here, and it's time to move on. I don't actually think anyone disagrees with that.
Which is an astounding statement when you think about it: No one on allbuffs disagrees that if MM doesn't show measurable progress this year, he should be fired - that's a pretty amazing level of consensus.
I think the only point of disagreement is what that measurable success looks like.
Obviously, enough measurable success in the win column (i.e. bowl game), and everyone agrees: keep and extend him - maybe even give him a raise. Also impressively, if he goes backwards in the win column, I think everyone would agree that he has coached himself out of a job.
[Side note: Actual serious question: does anyone actually think MM should be fired if he gets this team to a bowl game? And, does anyone actually think he should be retained if team wins 3 or fewer games this year?]
But, there is a gray area in the middle. 5 wins and a recruiting class ranked at, say #19 in the country. What about 4 wins, and a top ten class? Or 5 wins and a class rank of 29?
Bill McCartney went 1—10 in his 3rd year, but arguably landed a top 15 class (no recruiting rankings in those days, but every serious observer realized that he was in the middle of landing a very good, even elite recruiting class). Marolt smartly (given hindsight) extended him that off-season.
tl;dr version:
bowl game = stay,
3 wins or fewer = go,
4 or 5 wins = there better be something meaningful and measurable, something other than fuzzy feelings, if RG decides to keep him around.
So, the odds are that the coach you bring in will be worse than the coach you have now. But on the other hand, if you've discovered your current coach's ceiling, the only possible way to get better is by taking the chance and replacing your coach.
So the logical questions are: has MM reached his ceiling at CU, and/or can we afford to wait while he grows and gets to his ceiling?
If there is no tangible, measurable progress this year, I think you can fairly say that he's hit his ceiling here, and it's time to move on. I don't actually think anyone disagrees with that.
Which is an astounding statement when you think about it: No one on allbuffs disagrees that if MM doesn't show measurable progress this year, he should be fired - that's a pretty amazing level of consensus.
I think the only point of disagreement is what that measurable success looks like.
Obviously, enough measurable success in the win column (i.e. bowl game), and everyone agrees: keep and extend him - maybe even give him a raise. Also impressively, if he goes backwards in the win column, I think everyone would agree that he has coached himself out of a job.
[Side note: Actual serious question: does anyone actually think MM should be fired if he gets this team to a bowl game? And, does anyone actually think he should be retained if team wins 3 or fewer games this year?]
But, there is a gray area in the middle. 5 wins and a recruiting class ranked at, say #19 in the country. What about 4 wins, and a top ten class? Or 5 wins and a class rank of 29?
Bill McCartney went 1—10 in his 3rd year, but arguably landed a top 15 class (no recruiting rankings in those days, but every serious observer realized that he was in the middle of landing a very good, even elite recruiting class). Marolt smartly (given hindsight) extended him that off-season.
tl;dr version:
bowl game = stay,
3 wins or fewer = go,
4 or 5 wins = there better be something meaningful and measurable, something other than fuzzy feelings, if RG decides to keep him around.
Depends on what you define as a decent recruiting class. A legit top 25-30 class is hard to keep together in a coaching change.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
Maybe, but can you really expect to build a top 25-30 class during a losing season in your 4th year? I don't.
If they make a change, do it quickly and try to retain key assistants who can help hold the class together. Are these kids suddenly interested in CU now because they are finally realizing what a great coach Mac is or are our new assistants building these relationships and doing a better job selling CU? I'm just not convinced that these kids are so enamored with Mac versus their lead recruiter - I could be wrong.
Definitely possible. So much of class rankings have to do with number of commits and the 2017 class is probably going to be around 27 kids with attrition that will likely hit per usual.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
I just think all this hype about "The Rise" begins to fall flat if you're turning in another losing season.
That could definitely be the case. Chev, Tumpkin and Leavitt seem like they could battle through that though and I would assume if Mac is kept that Bernardi and Jeffcoat would likely be replaced. A lot of coaches recruit well when they are losing games.
This is a strong example of a circular argument. Well done.
Challenge issued. Please provide research, with footnotes, and submit to the board for inspection.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
So once Mac has replaced his entire original staff we'll finally find out if Mac can lead a P5 program? I'm not a fan of waiting 5 years to find out if your coach is any good.
Obviously it is unfortunate for the last couple years but it can't be changed now.
SINKRATZ
PhD in Analogy
Not at all actually. I'm saying 2 things:
1) I don't think we'll pull in a top 25 class if we have another losing season, so this hypothetical about whether to keep Mac if he brings in a top 25 class but misses a bowl game again is unlikely.
2) I don't believe Mac has suddenly become a great recruiter - I think our recruiting improvement is largely the result of better recruiters on the staff (some of whom could be retained in a coaching change) and the new facilities being completed.
Where's the circular logic?
The initial question posed was, "If Mac brings in a Top 25 recruiting class, do we keep him with 4-5 wins?".
You're saying no, that Mac is not a great recruiter and to bring in a coach who knows how to recruit and then, presumably, we will be on our way. So either you're not addressing the initial question posed, or your logic is off.