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NET Watch 2020

tante said:
Oregon State is turning into a bad loss. They are 2-5 in conference. With wins against us and Arizona (2 of the 3 top 25 teams in conference). They have played quite a bit on the road, so hopefully they can put together a win streak at the second half of conference play.
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well, except for one game.
 
tante said:
Oregon State is turning into a bad loss. They are 2-5 in conference. With wins against us and Arizona (2 of the 3 top 25 teams in conference). They have played quite a bit on the road, so hopefully they can put together a win streak at the second half of conference play.
Click to expand...

A win streak broken by Colorado coming into town and exacting vengeance for the Beavers choosing to save their best 7 minute stretch of basketball all season for the end of the game in Boulder.
 
Yesterday's Results:

CU took WSU behind the woodshed. Probably a good thing that small children were asleep and didn't see that 2nd half ass whipping.

Oregon needed 2 OTs to beat USC. Duarte had an all-time performance: 30 points, 11 rebounds, 8 steals & 2 blocks. If he was a Buff, I have no doubt that some of our fans would be bitching about his 0 assist "hero ball" night & Tad's inability to find good combo guards. ;)

Sac State took care of business against Portland State. Might move our win with them up a Quad.

Utah took down Washington. That's a good result for CU as long as we win this weekend.

UCLA beat Oregon State in Corvallis. Same day Shaq's kid left the team. Coincidence or addition by subtraction? Keep an eye here because UCLA has the talent to get dangerous.

Today, Jan 24, games we care about:

None. So maybe enjoy the FS1 double header of Wisconsin-Purdue at 5pm and Marquette-Butler at 7pm.
 
Updated the OP.

CU up to #17 NET. (That's the 1st 5-seed in the Dance if it goes by chalk.)

Sac State moved up to a Q3 win.
OSU dropped to a Q3 loss (now a bad loss).
Utah jumped up to a Q2 win (makes up for OSU a bit).

Also, UCLA is now a Q2 road game this week instead of a Q3.
 
Buffnik said:
Updated the OP.

CU up to #17 NET. (That's the 1st 5-seed in the Dance if it goes by chalk.)

Sac State moved up to a Q3 win.
OSU dropped to a Q3 loss (now a bad loss).
Utah jumped up to a Q2 win (makes up for OSU a bit).

Also, UCLA is now a Q2 road game this week instead of a Q3.
Click to expand...

Any idea how a team with a 90 NET rank (Oregon State) is Quad 3 while 102 (CSU) is Quad 2?
 
Monday, Jan 27, games we care about (sorry for not doing this over the weekend):

Sacramento State at Northern Arizona (6pm, no tv). Tough road game in conference play. Tied in the Big Sky standings at 4-4, with all 4 of Sac State's conf losses on the road. Would be a bit of a break through & tipping point if they can get a win tonight.

Prairie View A&M hosts MS Valley State (6:30pm, no tv). PVAM needs this one to get to .500 overall and stay in 1st place in the SWAC. They should win this one.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (7pm, ESPN2). KU is short-handed, but OSU is 0-6 in the Big 12.
 
Goose said:
That's not how KenPom works. It's based on AdjO - AdjD ratings to give you an overall efficiency.
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Yep. Overvalues blowout performances. I suspect that Prairie View did more to enhance our KenPom rating than Dayton. Despite that issue, it still ends up being damn good at being representative of the relative strength of teams.
 
seattlebuff said:
I'm curious ... why is Dayton ranked so high? What are their Quad 1 wins? I see they beat St Mary's ...
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Only losses were KU and CU in OT away from home. Quite a few solid wins both in A-10 play along with a few good (not great) non-conference wins. It's a really clean resume filled with consistently good play.
 
Buffnik said:
Updated the OP.

CU up to #17 NET. (That's the 1st 5-seed in the Dance if it goes by chalk.)

Sac State moved up to a Q3 win.
OSU dropped to a Q3 loss (now a bad loss).
Utah jumped up to a Q2 win (makes up for OSU a bit).

Also, UCLA is now a Q2 road game this week instead of a Q3.
Click to expand...

What do we think our seed ceiling is? I’m thinking 2 more road Ls, a Pac12 regular and tourny title we can sneak in as a low 2-seed. That’s obviously best case. I think if we win either the Pac-12 regular or post season with 13-5 conference record is a 3 seed and 12-6 with a champ birth in Vegas would get a 4seed, early Vegas exit 5 seed. I refuse to go lower than 12-6 in conference!
 
SkoBuff4344 said:
What do we think our seed ceiling is? I’m thinking 2 more road Ls, a Pac12 regular and tourny title we can sneak in as a low 2-seed. That’s obviously best case. I think if we win either the Pac-12 regular or post season with 13-5 conference record is a 3 seed and 12-6 with a champ birth in Vegas would get a 4seed, early Vegas exit 5 seed. I refuse to go lower than 12-6 in conference!
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Ceiling is winning the rest of our games before the tourney to finish 30-4 with a 1 seed. Realistically, I think that we're good enough in a season with a lot of flawed teams to get a 3 if we play great the rest of the way since I think there's a non ridiculous path to the committee rating CU as one of the best 12 teams in the country. But I'm hoping that we'll simply continue playing well and end up in the 4-6 range.

Hell, though, where I'm at right now is that I just want to beat UCLA.
 
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Buffnik said:
Yep. Overvalues blowout performances. I suspect that Prairie View did more to enhance our KenPom rating than Dayton.
Click to expand...

The only reason I think this might not be true is because PVAM was at home and Dayton was neutral.

BTW, updated KP Tier records:

* Tier A - 3-2
* Tier B - 4-1

Only loss outside those is Oregon St - which honestly could sneak back in to B if they get their **** together (not sure I'm holding my breath there).

As of right now, remainder of season:

Tier A - @ USC (2/1), @ Oregon (2/13), @ Stanford (3/1)
Tier B - @ UCLA (1/30), vs Stanford (2/8), @ Oregon St (2/15), vs USC (2/20), @ Utah (3/7)
 
Yesterday: PVAM and KU handled business. Sac State still sucks on the road.

Today's, Jan 28th, games we care about:

Clemson hosts Syracuse (5pm, ACCNX). Cuse is hot, but home court helps. Would be a big win.

Wyoming hosts Utah State (9pm, ESPNU). Maybe the Pokes can find that home court advantage they historically enjoy. They're so bad this year, though.
 
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