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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread

Kansas wins 69-52 at Baylor. Baylor is now 14-8 (2-7) and has to visit #21 Oklahoma next. The conference record is just getting too horrible to take them very seriously.

Providence hurt themselves with a home loss to St. John's, probably still safe at the moment but RPI now 51. Johnnies keep their faint hopes alive.

Ole Miss lost at Kentucky. Might seem like no harm done but the Rebs need some good wins and are running out of chances to get them.
 
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Flatirons2 said:
Went to the KU vs UT game yesterday...KU pretty much laid an egg coming in leading the B12 and a 7 game winning steak. The Oregon win amounts to diddly now our getting in and seed is now linked to how KU does the rest of the season even that though is up in the air because of the loss of SD...pretty iffy if we don't get to 20. As a side Wiggins looked and played like he was 18 2-11 from the field and hasn't acclimated to the college game...glad I'm not Self.
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we want UT to win games and dance.
 
Maryland and Wake both lost. Maryland RPI now 71, Wake 82. You can just about stick a fork in both, they aren't Dancing for a variety of reasons, the main being that they aren't good enough.

Clemson kept their hopes alive. RPI still bad (69), but you can't write off a team that's 15-6 (6-3) and has a win over Duke.

Missouri blew a golden opportunity in a close loss at Florida. Mizzou's RPI is 53 and they have a few halfway decent wins but nothing that sticks out. Tonight's loss drops them to just 4-5 in the SEC and that's a major red flag.

I'm also going to interrupt this bubble update to point and laugh at Illinois who now sits 2-8 in the B1G and not remotely in the discussion. I'm sorry, but Illini fans just didn't do it for me and I now love seeing them lose.
 
Mizzou is now under .500 in SEC play. They've got a lot of work to do. Probably need to win at Ole Miss this weekend.
 
Wednesday:

Our Buffs 16-6 (5-4) host Wazzu 9-12 (2-7): We're in good shape right now. RPI is 25, some nice wins. Of all our remaining games, a home loss to 153 RPI Wazzu would prove most disastrous. Gotta win.

Dayton 14-8 (2-5) @ George Mason 7-14 (0-7): Dayton went on a 4 game slide and has severely damaged themselves. They've done some nice stuff like kill Cal in Maui and win @ Ole Miss, but at the end of the day a sub-.500 A-10 record doesn't cut it. RPI 66 at the moment, a loss at lowly George Mason would be a dagger to their fading hopes.

St. Bonaventure 13-8 (3-4) @ Richmond 14-8 (4-3): Richmond is generally considered to be just on the wrong side of things at the moment. RPI 48. Bonnies are sitting at 69 with very faint hopes of their own. Chance for Richmond to pick up another top 100 win, although a St. Bonnies road win at Richmond might start pushing them into the picture.

Tennessee 14-7 (5-3) @ Vanderbilt 12-8 (4-4): Vols look to be on the right side of things at the moment with an RPI of 42. Killed Virginia and have beaten fellow SEC bubble teams LSU and Ole Miss. At the end of the day, a road game like this is one a Dance worthy team wins.

Indiana State 17-5 (8-2) vs #4 Wichita State 23-0 (10-0): Sycamore RPI is 55, but they lack any true quality wins. Here's their shot (and also by far the most difficult conference game for Wichita St)

Minnesota 15-7 (4-5) @ Purdue 13-9 (3-6): Gophers are still clinging to a bid for the time being with the RPI at 38 and a handful of pretty nice wins. However they're coming off losses to Nebraska and Northwestern. A 3rd loss to a sub-100 Purdue would cause panic. Gophers need this one.

Florida State 13-8 (4-5) vs Virginia Tech 8-13 (1-8): Trademark FSU squad with some nice wins, but they've lost 3 straight and 4/5. RPI is 40 and they're still OK, but a home loss to VT is exactly what would push them on to the wrong side of the bubble.

Stanford 14-7 (5-4) @ Cal 15-7 (6-3): Huge game. Cal's win over Arizona gave them a little breathing space, while Stanford is generally viewed as being about the last team in. Cal RPI sits at 41, Furd at 49. Both need this one. Going to be fun.

Boise State 15-7 (5-4) vs # San Diego State 19-1 (8-0): Boise RPI sits at 60. No truly bad losses, but a win over Utah as your bragging point doesn't fly. They've got to get some quality wins. Here's their shot for one that can revitalize their faint hopes in a hurry.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Wednesday:
Indiana State 17-5 (8-2) vs #4 Wichita State 23-0 (10-0): Sycamore RPI is 55, but they lack any true quality wins. Here's their shot (and also by far the most difficult conference game for Wichita St)
.
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This could be the game the shockers go down. I saw this morning that their plane got delayed and they will be flying to Indiana today (gameday). This was going to be a tough out for them anyway, that delayed flight could be enough to throw them off.
 
Stanford has withstood every Cal challenge, held a lead throughout. Up 12, under 8 timeout. Have to figure Cal attempts to makes one last run at this.
 
Huge win for Stanford at Cal. Stanford now 15-7 (6-4) and would have to be in if the season ended today. Cal drops to 15-7 (6-4), they're still in good shape as well but erased some of the breathing space they got from the Arizona win. Also now Cal falls back into the 4 loss logjam.
 
Minnesota now officially in trouble with a 3OT loss at Purdue. Gophers are 15-8 (4-6) but have lost 3 straight to Nebraska, Northwestern and Purdue.

San Diego State stuck a dagger in Boise State's hopes with a last second win. Boise falls to 15-8 (5-5). Quality wins are just completely non-existent.
 
Thursday:

LSU 14-6 (5-3) @ Georgia 10-10 (4-4): Bracket Matrix has LSU as the last team in at the moment. Tiger RPI is 54. A win over Kentucky is their main boasting point. Also beat Missouri, but have bad losses to Rhode Island and Alabama. They can't afford another sub-100 loss. Need to win this one or they're definitely on the wrong side of things.

SMU 17-5 (6-3) vs Temple 6-14 (1-7): Mustangs are on the right side at the moment. RPI 45, wins over UConn and Memphis. Just need to avoid bad losses, and in that conference you're either playing a real quality opponent or an opponent that will trash your resume. Really no middle ground, Temple would be the type of bad loss that could put SMU out.

Oregon 15-6 (3-6) @ #2 Arizona 21-1 (8-1): Despite the ugly conference record, Bracket Matrix has Oregon still clinging to a bid (next to last team in). RPI is still a respectable 46. This desert road swing presents opportunities for quality road win(s) that could save Oregon's season. They've traditionally been solid on the road under Altman, and we'll see how Arizona is with Ashley out. Big game, far too early to write Oregon off. They end the season with 5/7 at home including a 3 game home stand of Oregon and the Washington schools. They're going to make a run, it's just a matter of when and to what degree.

Arizona State 16-6 (5-4) vs Oregon State 13-8 (5-4): Sun Devils seem to be on the right side of the line for now. RPI is 49. No truly bad losses although Miami is now outside the top 100. Their main bragging point thus far is beating CU. The win @ Cal is nice, but they desperately need Cal to be top 50 (Cal dropped to 52 tonight). ASU has the type of weak OOC the committee loves to punish, so they have reason to be a little
nervous. And for those wondering, I'm not considering the Beavs a bubble team at the moment. RPI is 88. They'd need a big run to be realistically in the picture.

BYU 15-9 (7-4) vs Santa Clara 10-14 (3-8): BYU is right on the line, 2nd team out per Bracket Matrix. RPI 41. They've got wins over Texas on a neutral court and won at Stanford, but they've also got a couple questionable conference losses. Bottom line is they can't afford anymore bad conference losses and need to beat Gonzaga when they visit Provo in a couple weeks.

St. Mary's 16-7 (6-4) @ Loyola Marymount 11-12 (3-8): Listed as being just out (like 6th) and I don't understand it. RPI is within range at 58, but I see absolutely no good wins (best is Boise State at 63) and a host of bad losses to George Mason, South Carolina, Santa Clara, San Diego. If this is a legitimate bubble team then Pac-12 bubble teams should all feel good about their chances. This is the definition of a ****ty resume.
 
It's a Saturday in February, which means bubble games galore:

North Carolina 15-7 (5-4) @ Notre Dame 12-11 (3-7): Heels are certainly on the right side of things for now, and it would require a horrendous finish to knock them out given their name and big OOC wins. Still, this is a sub-100 loss they don't want and ND is not a pushover.

Georgetown 13-9 (4-6) vs Butler 12-10 (2-8): Georgetown kept their hopes alive with a big win over Michigan State last week. RPI is 54 and there's a lot of work to do, but they've got a chance

Kansas State 15-7 (5-4) vs #15 Texas 18-4 (7-2): KState is on the right side of things. RPI 42. Chance to take a big step towards solidifying a bid. They're hitting a rough stretch that will prove what they're made of.

Florida State 14-8 (5-5) @ Maryland 13-10 (5-5): Noles have looked really shaky lately losing 3/4 and 4/6 with only a last second home win over Notre Dame and a home win over VT. They're still on the right side of things, but they've got to show some life soon. RPI has dropped to 44. This is the type of game a Big Dance team wins over an NIT team. Maryland sits at 72 and really has nothing to offer on the resume. A win would keep whatever distant hopes they may have alive, but it's highly unlikely.

Providence 16-7 (6-4) @ Xavier 15-7 (5-4): This is a big one. Both teams are likely just on the right side of things for now. Providence RPI 49, Xavier 39. Xavier appears to be the slightly safer of the two, but it's close.

Tennessee 14-8 (5-4) vs South Carolina 8-14 (1-8): Vols are probably just in right now. Their ass kicking of Virginia is proving highly valuable. Goes without saying a home loss to the Gamecocks would be a disaster. They've got Florida visiting next and can't be caught looking ahead. RPI 47

West Virginia 14-9 (6-4) @ #8 Kansas 17-5 (8-1): Despite an RPI of 73, I'm putting WVU here because they've just beaten Baylor, KState and Oklahoma. It's a long shot, but they're playing Kansas and a win would vault them well into the picture.

LSU 14-7 (5-4) vs Auburn 11-9 (3-6): LSU took a bad loss at Georgia and RPI slipped to 63. That probably put them on the wrong side of things. When you don't have true quality wins, you can't absorb bad losses...

Missouri 16-6 (4-5) @ Ole Miss 15-7 (6-3): Mizzou RPI 50, Ole Miss 59. Two more SEC teams right on the bubble. Mizzou can't keep losing conference games and Ole Miss needs decent wins and fast. Loser of this one is going to have a hard time getting in.

Oregon 15-7 (3-7) @ Arizona State 17-6 (6-4): Oregon RPI 40, ASU 41. ASU is in better shape than Oregon by virtue of record, but the Sun Devils don't have much breathing space. They need this top 50 win Oregon provides. After 7 conference losses it's remarkable Oregon's RPI sits 40. They've got to go on a run, and it needs to start here. With 5/7 at home to finish I wouldn't write off Oregon just yet.

Baylor 14-8 (2-7) @ #21 Oklahoma (6-4): Baylor RPI 58. Baylor doesn't get in right now, but like Oregon if they find a way to go on a little run and get the conference record back to respectability, it's possible given the state of the bubble. This is probably a must-win for Baylor. Can't be 2-8 in the Big XII, too steep a hill to climb.

SMU 17-5 (7-3) vs #7 Cincinnati: Larry Brown has the Mustangs on the right side of things. RPI 48. Big, big opportunity for them to get away from the bubble and start locking themselves in the Dance.

Indiana 14-8 (4-5) @ Minnesota 15-8 (4-6): Minnesota RPI 45, Indiana 70. Gophers are falling apart with 3 straight losses to Nebraska, Northwestern and Purdue to go from really comfortable to in doubt. Hoosiers are fresh off beating Michigan to keep their fading hopes alive.

BYU 16-9 (8-4) vs San Francisco 15-9 (8-4): BYU RPI 46. Cougs are right on the cut line. San Fran is a top 100 team but BYU cannot afford a home loss to them.
 
I hadn't repped Cville in a while for all he does in the hoops forum. Fixed that.

Great write-up of today's action.
 
Another lifeless showing from FSU in progress, down 58-39 at Maryland. Noles are in trouble. Lose this and they'll have dropped 4/5 and 5/7
 
FSU falls at Maryland and Providence falls at Xavier. Both teams needed road wins and couldn't get them. FSU RPI now falls to 50, Providence 49. Xavier has brought themselves up to 36. Maryland has a ton of work to do but they're up to 67 now.
 
Ole Miss beats Mizzou. Mizzou now with 6 SEC losses, they're in trouble. Ole Miss has work to do as well
 
CVilleBuff said:
Ole Miss beats Mizzou. Mizzou now with 6 SEC losses, they're in trouble. Ole Miss has work to do as well
Click to expand...

The real question is whether a 3rd SEC team should be selected. Florida and Kentucky are locks. But then you drop down to Tennessee, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Arkansas, etc. I'd rather see the committee take a flyer on a small conference team than go with one of those.
 
Buffnik said:
The real question is whether a 3rd SEC team should be selected. Florida and Kentucky are locks. But then you drop down to Tennessee, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Arkansas, etc. I'd rather see the committee take a flyer on a small conference team than go with one of those.
Click to expand...

I think a 3rd gets in. Tennessee probably has the best chance. Agree it's similar to past years with this group being so glaringly mediocre. It's actually pretty incredible how much adding 4 teams has lowered the bar for who is in the discussion.
 
CVilleBuff said:
I think a 3rd gets in. Tennessee probably has the best chance. Agree it's similar to past years with this group being so glaringly mediocre. It's actually pretty incredible how much adding 4 teams has lowered the bar for who is in the discussion.
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Looking at the RPI of these teams - Tennessee at 47, Missouri at 50, Ole Miss at 59, LSU at 60 - that's solid bubble territory right there
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Looking at the RPI of these teams - Tennessee at 47, Missouri at 50, Ole Miss at 59, LSU at 60 - that's solid bubble territory right there
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Lunardi said the other day it's not completely inconceivable that 2 SEC teams would have to play in a play-in game if enough snuck in.
 
Gotta say I miss Bracketbusters. Really enjoyed getting a chance to see a bunch of random mid major teams that are never on TV, and try to figure out who among them is actually any good.
 
Sunday:

Our Buffs 17-6 (6-4) face Washington 13-10 (5-5). We're in good shape. Our RPI is 27, Bracket Matrix has us as a 9 right now. Washington is 83. However, it's no secret we're about to hit a very tough end stretch with 5/7 on the road. We've got to take care of business and beat UW or things could get dicey in a hurry.

Clemson 15-6 (6-3) @ #1 Syracuse 22-0 (9-0): Tiger RPI still is only 69 thanks to a very weak OOC. They've got that win over Duke on the resume. Still have work to do. Obviously a win here would vault them to the right side of things. ACC winning record isn't the near guarantee it was pre-expansion. There's a lot of crappy teams in the ACC. Once you get below the top 5 ACC teams it gets bad in a hurry.

St. John's 14-9 (4-6) vs #12 Creighton 19-3 (9-1): Red Storm stayed alive with a win at fellow bubble squad Providence. RPI is still just 68, so there's work to be done. They need some quality wins. This is a huge opportunity for them against Creighton (only lost by 3 @ Creighton two weeks ago), their only loss in the last 6 games after starting conference play 0-5. Truth be told, this is a must-win.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Sunday:

Our Buffs 17-6 (6-4) face Washington 13-10 (5-5). We're in good shape. Our RPI is 27, Bracket Matrix has us as a 9 right now. Washington is 83. However, it's no secret we're about to hit a very tough end stretch with 5/7 on the road. We've got to take care of business and beat UW or things could get dicey in a hurry.

Clemson 15-6 (6-3) @ #1 Syracuse 22-0 (9-0): Tiger RPI still is only 69 thanks to a very weak OOC. They've got that win over Duke on the resume. Still have work to do. Obviously a win here would vault them to the right side of things. ACC winning record isn't the near guarantee it was pre-expansion. There's a lot of crappy teams in the ACC. Once you get below the top 5 ACC teams it gets bad in a hurry.

St. John's 14-9 (4-6) vs #12 Creighton 19-3 (9-1): Red Storm stayed alive with a win at fellow bubble squad Providence. RPI is still just 68, so there's work to be done. They need some quality wins. This is a huge opportunity for them against Creighton (only lost by 3 @ Creighton two weeks ago), their only loss in the last 6 games after starting conference play 0-5. Truth be told, this is a must-win.
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Clemson is a very good defensive team, in fact they lead the nation in scoring defense and are 8th in FG percentage allowed
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Clemson is a very good defensive team, in fact they lead the nation in scoring defense and are 8th in FG percentage allowed
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Definitely keep it slow, 330th in ppg. I'm just not sold yet, put the Duke win aside and it's mostly very very close wins over ACC bottom feeders. Need more meat on the resume. I'm sure they've got UVA's visit to Littlejohn on Saturday circled. I'm really not impressed with the new look ACC. It's extremely watered down with about 10 mediocre to downright bad teams. Louisville will be a welcome addition.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Definitely keep it slow, 330th in ppg. I'm just not sold yet, put the Duke win aside and it's mostly very very close wins over ACC bottom feeders. Need more meat on the resume. I'm sure they've got UVA's visit to Littlejohn on Saturday circled. I'm really not impressed with the new look ACC. It's extremely watered down with about 10 mediocre to downright bad teams. Louisville will be a welcome addition.
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You touched on this the other day but after the top 4 teams the ACC is a bunch of very mediocre teams and 2 or 3 bad teams at the bottom. Even Pitt being one of the top 4 is a bit of an enigma with no great wins but all 4 losses are high quality losses, although only 1 of those was a true road game.
 
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