Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread

[cubuffs85]

This game is at Clemson's pace but Cuse has pulled away at 57-44 with about a minute left

More rooting for the CU game starting on ESPNU on time than anything else.

 

[Buffnik]

Clemson losing by 13 at the pace they paid is as big of a blowout as CU had over Washington tonight.

St. John's has made themselves to the conversation by beating Creighton.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Monday:

West Virginia 14-10 (6-5) vs #16 Iowa State 18-4 (6-4): WVU remains quite a long shot, RPI 73, but they're doing pretty well in conference play and this is a chance to add another quality win and move them up a bunch in the RPI (ISU is 9). Eers are tough at home.

Florida State 14-9 (5-6) vs Miami 11-12 (2-8): FSU's impressive OOC seems years ago. They've been struggling immensely losing 4/5 with only a home win over lowly VT in that stretch. Their RPI has tumbled all the way to 54. Bracket Matrix still has them a 10, but that's because brackets are lagging behind not keeping pace with FSU's losses, the reality is likely far closer to the cutoff line. They've got to beat Miami at home to start stabilizing.

Providence 16-8 (6-5) @ Georgetown 14-9 (5-6): Both are bubble teams. Providence RPI 49, Georgetown 57. Providence is going the wrong way losing 3/4, including their last two which were both bubble games against St. John's and Xavier. They're right on the line now. Georgetown still has major work to do, but they've come back to life with 3 straight wins including Michigan State. Neither team can afford to lose this game. A loss is probably the end of Georgetown. Providence is in better shape, but they can't keep losing to fellow bubble teams. This is one to keep an eye on.

Kansas State 16-7 (6-4) vs #8 Kansas 18-5 (9-1): Wildcats took a big step on Saturday by demolishing #15 Texas. They're certainly on the right side of things for now, likely about an 8 or 9 seed. They've got two sub-100 losses OOC, but have recovered with quality wins over Texas, Gonzaga. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss. They can afford to lose to KU, but a win all but locks their Dance bid up.

Maryland 14-10 (6-5) @ #20 Virginia 19-5 (10-1): Maryland remains an extreme longshot. RPI is 68 and wins over Providence and FSU just don't do it. They need to do something big. Virginia will likely be ranked around 15 when the polls come out. Here's yet another shot for a big win to vault the Terps forward. They're running out of time and need to go on a big run with quality wins...starting now.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

Monday:

Florida State 14-9 (5-6) vs Miami 11-12 (2-8): FSU's impressive OOC seems years ago. They've been struggling immensely losing 4/5 with only a home win over lowly VT in that stretch. Their RPI has tumbled all the way to 54. Bracket Matrix still has them a 10, but that's because brackets are lagging behind not keeping pace with FSU's losses, the reality is likely far closer to the cutoff line. They've got to beat Miami at home to start stabilizing.

FSU was down double digits to Miami early in the 2nd half but they've managed to cut it to 7 at the under 12

 

[Buffnik]

FSU was down double digits to Miami early in the 2nd half but they've managed to cut it to 7 at the under 12

If Miami can survive this stretch (and they seem to be doing so thus far), I think they've got this. FSU's using a lot of energy to try to come back and it's at 9 still.

 

[Buffnik]

Georgetown is officially back in business with a win over Providence. 15-9 (6-6) with an RPI in the low 50s. Very tough schedule to finish the year, which is exactly what they need. @StJohns, @SetonHall, Xavier, @Marquette, Creighton, @Villanova.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Georgetown is officially back in business with a win over Providence. 15-9 (6-6) with an RPI in the low 50s. Very tough schedule to finish the year, which is exactly what they need. @StJohns, @SetonHall, Xavier, @Marquette, Creighton, @Villanova.

Georgetown back in business, West Virginia making a push, huge win for them.

flip side Florida State has played themselves out for now. Completely collapsing. Providence in perilous position, too. 3 games against bubble teams and lose all 3.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Tuesday

Tennessee 15-8 (6-4) vs #3 Florida 21-2 (10-0): Of the SEC bubble teams, the Vols are in the best shape. RPI 47 and their beatdown of. Virginia looking better and better each day. I personally believe they're just in as it stands right now. A win over Florida would be golden and certainly put them on the right side of things. One of those classic bubble team vs elite team home games where the bubble team can show they belong. Biggest opportunity of the year for the Vols.

Oklahoma State 16-7 (4-6) @ #19 Texas 18-5 (7-3): Looks crazy having Okie Lite here, but they're collapsing as of late. Pokes have lost 4 in a row, RPI is down to 36. They're certainly still "in" for now, but the remaining schedule is not easy and that loss at Texas Tech may have ramifications that go beyond the Smart incident. This is certainly a team to keep an eye on.

NC State 15-8 (5-5) vs Wake Forest 14-9 (4-6): NC State is lurking below the radar, but their RPI is 58. Not much to offer in regards to good wins, Tennessee is their only current top 50 (FSU has collapsed). Pack need to go on a big run to realistically have a shot. Wake's ship has sailed. RPI 86, Bzdelik is NIT bound.

Clemson 15-7 (6-4) @ Notre Dame 12-12 (3-8): Clemson continues to hang around. Weak OOC did them no favors, but that win over Duke keeps them in the picture. This is a huge week for the Tigers. RPI still just 65. They can't afford a sub-100 loss at Notre Dame, and #17 Virginia visits on Saturday.

Xavier 16-7 (6-4) @ Butler 12-11 (2-9): Xavier remains on the right side of things after halting a 3 game skid and beating bubble team Providence. RPI is 39. They've got a very solid win over Cincy and some decent ones over Tennessee, Georgetown, St. John's. However they have two sub-100 losses (USC, Seton Hall). They don't want to add a third blemish to that resume.

Ole Miss 16-7 (7-3) @ Alabama 9-14 (3-7): Rebs beat fellow SEC bubble squad Mizzou over the weekend, likely putting Ole Miss right on the cut line (probably just out). They have one sub 100 loss (Mississippi State), but just nothing to boast of in the win category. 1 top 50 win (over currently 49 Mizzou). Rebs have a huge stretch coming up starting with this one, @ Georgia and then Kentucky and Florida both in Oxford. They've got to avoid losses to Bama and Georgia and then beat either Kentucky or Florida.

 

[cubuffs85]

Tuesday

Tennessee 15-8 (6-4) vs #3 Florida 21-2 (10-0): Of the SEC bubble teams, the Vols are in the best shape. RPI 47 and their beatdown of. Virginia looking better and better each day. I personally believe they're just in as it stands right now. A win over Florida would be golden and certainly put them on the right side of things. One of those classic bubble team vs elite team home games where the bubble team can show they belong. Biggest opportunity of the year for the Vols.

Oklahoma State 16-7 (4-6) @ #19 Texas 18-5 (7-3): Looks crazy having Okie Lite here, but they're collapsing as of late. Pokes have lost 4 in a row, RPI is down to 36. They're certainly still "in" for now, but the remaining schedule is not easy and that loss at Texas Tech may have ramifications that go beyond the Smart incident. This is certainly a team to keep an eye on.

NC State 15-8 (5-5) vs Wake Forest 14-9 (4-6): NC State is lurking below the radar, but their RPI is 58. Not much to offer in regards to good wins, Tennessee is their only current top 50 (FSU has collapsed). Pack need to go on a big run to realistically have a shot. Wake's ship has sailed. RPI 86, Bzdelik is NIT bound.

Clemson 15-7 (6-4) @ Notre Dame 12-12 (3-8): Clemson continues to hang around. Weak OOC did them no favors, but that win over Duke keeps them in the picture. This is a huge week for the Tigers. RPI still just 65. They can't afford a sub-100 loss at Notre Dame, and #17 Virginia visits on Saturday.

Xavier 16-7 (6-4) @ Butler 12-11 (2-9): Xavier remains on the right side of things after halting a 3 game skid and beating bubble team Providence. RPI is 39. They've got a very solid win over Cincy and some decent ones over Tennessee, Georgetown, St. John's. However they have two sub-100 losses (USC, Seton Hall). They don't want to add a third blemish to that resume.

Ole Miss 16-7 (7-3) @ Alabama 9-14 (3-7): Rebs beat fellow SEC bubble squad Mizzou over the weekend, likely putting Ole Miss right on the cut line (probably just out). They have one sub 100 loss (Mississippi State), but just nothing to boast of in the win category. 1 top 50 win (over currently 49 Mizzou). Rebs have a huge stretch coming up starting with this one, @ Georgia and then Kentucky and Florida both in Oxford. They've got to avoid losses to Bama and Georgia and then beat either Kentucky or Florida.

Bzdelik keep his job if they go to the NIT?

 

[CVilleBuff]

Bzdelik keep his job if they go to the NIT?

Up in the air, heat has been on him since day one and most fans turned on him long ago. However, it's his 4th year and Wake has improved each and every year. If they get 20 wins (including postseason), he's got a case...Wake can't fall apart down the stretch or he's probably out.

 

[tante]

Up in the air, heat has been on him since day one and most fans turned on him long ago. However, it's his 4th year and Wake has improved each and every year. If they get 20 wins (including postseason), he's got a case...Wake can't fall apart down the stretch or he's probably out.

That whole situation is crazy. Turn a sweet sixteen team into a team that takes 4 years to make the NIT.

 

[cubuffs85]

That whole situation is crazy. Turn a sweet sixteen team into a team that takes 4 years to make the NIT.

It helps to have friends in high places. I wonder how much longer that AD can keep his job, not like their football team has been doing that well the past few years and the coach who led them to all their success just left.

 

[wyobuff]

Our official position in ESPN's bubble watch:

"Work left to do"

Colorado [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 25, SOS: 31] Colorado's RPI feels drastically high for a team with exactly one noteworthy win (Dec. 7 vs. Kansas), which came before Spencer Dinwiddie's season-ending injury. That doesn't mean the Buffaloes should feel safe going forward, of course, but it does prove the value of scheduling well, and avoiding too many cupcakes in doing so.
It also seems like they are giving tad props on learning how to schedule.

 

[rolandftw]

Our official position in ESPN's bubble watch:

"Work left to do"

Colorado [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 25, SOS: 31] Colorado's RPI feels drastically high for a team with exactly one noteworthy win (Dec. 7 vs. Kansas), which came before Spencer Dinwiddie's season-ending injury. That doesn't mean the Buffaloes should feel safe going forward, of course, but it does prove the value of scheduling well, and avoiding too many cupcakes in doing so.
It also seems like they are giving tad props on learning how to schedule.

Seems about right. I'd argue Harvard was a good win as well, but the team still has something to prove, they are right on that. It's the nature of scheduling games against good teams that also schedule games against good teams. Nearly impossible to have a bad RPI if you're a decent team. I think 75% of RPI is determined by who you schedule and what teams those teams schedule.

 

[CUwhit21]

Seems about right. I'd argue Harvard was a good win as well, but the team still has something to prove, they are right on that. It's the nature of scheduling games against good teams that also schedule games against good teams. Nearly impossible to have a bad RPI if you're a decent team. I think 75% of RPI is determined by who you schedule and what teams those teams schedule.

ESPN reading too much into their own bogus BPI.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Seems about right. I'd argue Harvard was a good win as well, but the team still has something to prove, they are right on that. It's the nature of scheduling games against good teams that also schedule games against good teams. Nearly impossible to have a bad RPI if you're a decent team. I think 75% of RPI is determined by who you schedule and what teams those teams schedule.

Unfortunately, our "Harvard is a good win" case has taken two severe hits with their recent losses to Florida Atlantic and Yale. We need Harvard to win out. Anyway, ESPN is acting like we've lost games that we haven't even played. If selection was today we undoubtedly get in and it's not particularly close.

 

[Buffnik]

Our official position in ESPN's bubble watch:

"Work left to do"

Colorado [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 25, SOS: 31] Colorado's RPI feels drastically high for a team with exactly one noteworthy win (Dec. 7 vs. Kansas), which came before Spencer Dinwiddie's season-ending injury. That doesn't mean the Buffaloes should feel safe going forward, of course, but it does prove the value of scheduling well, and avoiding too many cupcakes in doing so.
It also seems like they are giving tad props on learning how to schedule.

This illustrates one of the biggest bones of contention between the Jay Bilas led ESPN cabal and the Selection Committee / RPI crowd: the former overvalues headline wins and doesn't place much weight on avoiding losses to middling teams. RPI has a ton of respect for the fact that the Buffs don't lose to teams outside the Top 100.

 

[Buffnik]

Tennessee falls to Florida. Best thing for the Pac-12 is for Florida and Kentucky to win all their games so the rest of the SEC has nothing on their resumes.

Oklahoma State lost at Texas, 68-87. At 16-8 (4-7), Okie Lite is in real danger of missing the Dance. Unreal.

NC State beat Wake Forest to keep its hopes alive at 16-8 (6-5).

Clemson's in OT2 at Notre Dame. This is a loss that could hurt them if they don't pull it out.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Tennessee falls to Florida. Best thing for the Pac-12 is for Florida and Kentucky to win all their games so the rest of the SEC has nothing on their resumes.

Oklahoma State lost at Texas, 68-87. At 16-8 (4-7), Okie Lite is in real danger of missing the Dance. Unreal.

NC State beat Wake Forest to keep its hopes alive at 16-8 (6-5).

Clemson's in OT2 at Notre Dame. This is a loss that could hurt them if they don't pull it out.

a sub 100 loss they can't afford.

 

[Buffnik]

Clemson loses at ND, 64-68.

 

[rolandftw]

If selection was today we undoubtedly get in and it's not particularly close.

Probably accurate. But other then the Arizona road trip, CU has had a very soft first 11 games in Conference. Going to get a lot tougher in our final 7 games.

I think we are a 10 seed right now, which gives the team some leeway but I'd rather it didn't come down to a close decision by the committee

 

[Buffnik]

Ole Miss lost at Alabama. That's a killer for them. Is the SEC a 2-bid league? Right now, I'd say yes.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Ole Miss lost at Alabama. That's a killer for them. Is the SEC a 2-bid league? Right now, I'd say yes.

As of tonight, I think so. Vols blew it and Ole Miss is out of the legitimate discussion.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Wednesday:

Richmond 15-8 (5-3) @ Duquesne 10-12 (2-7): Spiders lost their leading scorer for the season a week ago. They've since beaten St. Bonaventure at home by 2. Richmond has a decent RPI at 45, but it's unclear if they're going to be able to finish strong down the stretch. As it stands, they're likely right on the line.

Dayton 16-8 (4-5) vs Rhode Island 11-13 (2-7): Dayton is attempting to get back into the picture with 3 straight wins, including one over a solid 32 George Washington squad. Dayton has nice wins: Gonzaga, Cal, George Washington, @ Ole Miss. They've also done stupid **** like lose to USC and Rhode Island. RPI is 57. There's work to do, but Dayton has a chance if they close impressively.

Baylor 14-9 (2-8) @ TCU 9-13 (0-10): Baylor's conference record says it all. RPI 59. Bears are a longshot at best. They'll have to put together a very impressive run and basically not lose again in the regular season.

Indiana 14-9 (4-6) vs Penn State 12-12 (3-8): After a big win over Michigan, the Hoosiers went and lost at Minnesota in a bubble battle. RPI is now a lowly 78. Indiana needs to go on a remarkable run to close the regular season to have any real chance.

LSU 15-7 (6-4) @ Texas A&M 13-10 (4-6): LSU has wins over Kentucky and Missouri, but they've also lost to Alabama and Georgia. RPI is 60. Another sub-100 loss here against the Aggies would probably be the end for LSU.

Stanford 15-7 (6-4) @ Washington 13-11 (5-6): Cardinal have put themselves on the right side of things with wins over ASU and @ Cal. RPI is now 43. Cardinal are listed as a 10 by Bracket Matrix. Given the condition of nuble teams, a loss at Washington wouldn't be the end of the world, but obviously a top 100 road win would be a nice addition to the resume.

Cal 15-8 (6-4) @ Washington State 9-14 (2-9): The home loss to Stanford hurt, but Cal is still on the right side of things (about an 11) at the moment. Cal RPI is 50. Keep in mind Cal did already lose to USC, so another horrible conference loss would do some major damage. Bears have lost 4/5 all of a sudden, too. They need this. Wazzu has shown they've got some fight left in them despite their limitations, too.

 

[Buffnik]

After this week, we'll need to start talking about "Bubble Busters". There are some teams with high RPIs in what look to be 1-bid leagues (i.e., Toledo) that need to win their conference tournaments or the auto-bid could very well knock a bubble team out of the Dance.

 

[CVilleBuff]

After this week, we'll need to start talking about "Bubble Busters". There are some teams with high RPIs in what look to be 1-bid leagues (i.e., Toledo) that need to win their conference tournaments or the auto-bid could very well knock a bubble team out of the Dance.

Yep, I considered bringing it in this week but decided to wait. Toledo and Southern Miss are the two serious ones off the top of my head.

 

[cubuffs85]

So Bill Walton is doing three games in three days? I thought he was trying to reduce his schedule?

 

[Buffnik]

Yep, I considered bringing it in this week but decided to wait. Toledo and Southern Miss are the two serious ones off the top of my head.

Maybe Wichita State and the MVC. Indiana State's #2 in the mid-50s, I think.

 

[wyobuff]

After this week, we'll need to start talking about "Bubble Busters". There are some teams with high RPIs in what look to be 1-bid leagues (i.e., Toledo) that need to win their conference tournaments or the auto-bid could very well knock a bubble team out of the Dance.

We've got a potential bubble buster in the P12 - Altmans group of bandits in eugene. If they get hot before the tourney and actually play some D, watch out.
Odds of that happening though are not great.

 

[Buffnik]

LSU just lost at aTm. That hurt them pretty bad.