Wednesday:
Our Buffs 20-9 (9-7) are on the road at Stanford 18-10 (9-7): Both teams are in for now. Lunardi has CU and Stanford both 10 seeds, while Bracket Matrix has Stanford a 9 and CU a 10. CU RPI is 32, Stanford 42. While it's unlikely either team doesn't Dance, neither is a "lock". Both teams are looking for that one last win to seal the deal. Obviously this is also a huge game for Pac-12 tournament seeding. Buff fans took over Maples last year on a Wednesday, hopefully you Bay Area Buffs can do the same this year.
Nebraska 17-11 (9-7) @ Indiana 17-12 (7-9): It's a strange year when a Nebraska/Indiana game has me talking about Nebraska potentially Dancing while Indiana has no shot for an at-large. Nebraska is currently Lunardi's 2nd team out, while Bracket Matrix has them the 5th team out. Nebraska's RPI is 59. The Corn have to win this to realistically stay in the hunt. After this, they end the regular season hosting Wisconsin. If they can win these two, I think they Dance. An 11-7 B1G record would be awfully tough to turn away.
Tennessee 18-11 (9-7) @ Auburn 13-14 (5-11): Lunardi has the Vols his next to last team in, while Bracket Matrix has them the last team in. RPI is 49. Vols are coming off a 76-38 win over Vanderbilt, the first game in a while where they resembled an NCAA Tournament team. Still just two top 50 wins (Virginia and Xavier). Winning at Auburn is an absolute must. After this, they end the regular season at home against fellow SEC bubble squad Missouri.
Missouri 20-9 (8-8) vs Texas A&M 17-12 (8-8): Missouri's woeful recent play as of late has caught up with them. Lunardi has them as his 5th team out, while Bracket Matrix has them the first team out. RPI is 52. Tigers have just 2 top 50 wins (one being against 49 Tennessee). Texas A&M is a must-win, another sub-100 loss would end Missouri's hopes right then and there. After this, they close the regular season @ Tennessee. It's unlikely both Tennessee and Missouri get in. That game in Knoxville is looking more and more like a bubble elimination game.
Arkansas 20-9 (9-7) vs Ole Miss 17-12 (8-8): Lunardi has Arkansas his fourth to last team in, Bracket Matrix has them third to last in. RPI is 58. Arkansas has 4 top 50 wins, including a sweep of Kentucky and only 1 bad loss (Texas A&M). Their resume is more impressive than both Tennessee's and Missouri's. Still, they cannot afford to take a home loss to Ole Miss, and they absolutely must win @ Alabama in their final regular season game. As long as Arkansas wins these final two (they should) and avoid a sub-100 loss in the SEC tournament, they should make it in.
Dayton 20-9 (8-6) @ #17 Saint Louis 25-4 (12-2): Lunardi has Dayton the 6th team out, Bracket Matrix has them the 2nd team out. RPI is 47. Here is Dayton's big chance. Flyers have won 7/8 to give themselves this opportunity. If they can win in Saint Louis, they deserve serious consideration for a bid. If they lose, they're probably done. Their final remaining game is home against Richmond (Spiders have fallen off) and they'd need to make the A10 tournament final and get major outside help.
Cal 18-11 (9-7) vs Utah 19-9 (8-8): Lunardi has Cal in his "Last Four Byes" and Bracket Matrix has them as the 4th to last team in. RPI is 54. Cal is on shaky ground. They've lost 3/4 with the only win being at home against USC and the losses coming by 18, 20 and 28. They're riding that Arizona win for all it's worth, but this is also the 1 team USC has managed to beat in Pac12 play. Cal has got to get at least 1 more win or else they will be a serious risk to get left out.
Utah is a tough out, home or away. We'll see how Cal responds to the pressure.
