cubuffs85
Active Member
If we go 2-2, I can't us NOT getting it period. Beating UofA and road victory would only help our resume.
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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
cubuffs85
Active Member
To get a 5th seed, I'd imagine they'd have to pretty much run the tables -- make the semis of the P12 Tourney?
Probably so. It's hard to say just how far the Buffs would need to go since it's also a moving target based on what other teams do. Theoretically, we could win 3 of 4 and then still get a 5th seed (or better) by winning the Pac-12 Tourney.
cubuffs85
Active Member
Agreed, very tough to predict since it's contingent on so many other things including many of which are out of our control.
Yeah. Including what teams we'd beat in the P12T if we went on a run. Wins over UCLA & Arizona in Vegas and we'll skyrocket. Other conference teams, not so much.
Bubble remains a huge muck.
Marquette stays somewhat in the conversation with an OT win at DePaul. Tennesse loses at Texas A&M and continues to do its best to go away despite the ESPN love (were rated 5 spots ahead of CU in the worthless BPI entering today). Kansas State is getting rolled (RPI already in the 30s) at Oklahoma, making them suddenly bubbly if they don't pull off enough of a comeback to make this less ugly.
Marquette stays somewhat in the conversation with an OT win at DePaul. Tennesse loses at Texas A&M and continues to do its best to go away despite the ESPN love (were rated 5 spots ahead of CU in the worthless BPI entering today). Kansas State is getting rolled (RPI already in the 30s) at Oklahoma, making them suddenly bubbly if they don't pull off enough of a comeback to make this less ugly.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Vols fall at sub 100 aTm
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Extremely damaging. Frankly this year it's hard to find 68 deserving teams.
Everything's mucked up. It's hard to figure out a Top 5 or Top 10 right now, too.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Tennessee's issue is they play a bunch of crap teams with only a home game against Missouri remotely decent. You'd think they need to win out now, but since everyone keeps losing the bubble bar keeps getting lower and lower
BuffLuke80
Well-Known Member
Bad, bad loss for Tennessee.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Seems like the Pac and A10 stand to benefit from the SEC's suckitude
SEC continues to to its best to muck things up.
Texas A&M actually thinks it has a case. Arkansas wins today at Miss State to get to 18-9 (7-7) and also thinks it has a case. LSU just took Kentucky to OT in Lexington. That one would really confuse things and probably be good for CU since UK would drop a lot in the RPI ranks - and maybe fall out of the Top 25 AP.
Otherwise, Richmond won to stay in the conversation. And I don't think KSU is safe any more after the loss at Oklahoma today. Not a bad loss, but their OOC was not good. We know first-hand what a weak showing in the non-conference can do to a team that is relying on the strength of the conference and while not winning any quality road games.
Texas A&M actually thinks it has a case. Arkansas wins today at Miss State to get to 18-9 (7-7) and also thinks it has a case. LSU just took Kentucky to OT in Lexington. That one would really confuse things and probably be good for CU since UK would drop a lot in the RPI ranks - and maybe fall out of the Top 25 AP.
Otherwise, Richmond won to stay in the conversation. And I don't think KSU is safe any more after the loss at Oklahoma today. Not a bad loss, but their OOC was not good. We know first-hand what a weak showing in the non-conference can do to a team that is relying on the strength of the conference and while not winning any quality road games.
Kentucky survives, 77-76 in OT. Great game. SEC is just about shaking out as UF (undefeated), UK (couple games clear for 2nd), UGA (couple games clear for 3rd)... just about everyone else sitting at 7-7... and 4 absolutely horrible teams at the bottom.
LSU had a chance to keep their slim tournament hopes alive if they could have pulled that one out
Ole Miss let a huge opportunity against Florida slip away earlier today, too. Hopefully the folks who decide these things are paying attention to the fact that when this many opportunities are missed and there is this much inconsistency, it means that the teams just aren't that good.
Yea, as CVille noted it's almost like there's not 68 deserving teams. It's ridiculous that they would even consider going to 96 teams.
BuffLuke80
Well-Known Member
Yeah what's his butt for Ole Miss disappeared in the second half. Think he had 22 at half.
LSU got jobbed by a couple of calls. Thought the call to give UK some FTs before OT was home cooking.
That said, if LSU shoots better at the stripe they win.
I still can't believe teams struggle so much with a basic fundamental of the game. Maybe I'm missing something. It seems to be a mental + repetitions thing.
That said, if LSU shoots better at the stripe they win.
I still can't believe teams struggle so much with a basic fundamental of the game. Maybe I'm missing something. It seems to be a mental + repetitions thing.
cubuffs85
Active Member
I forget where they mentioned it but some pundit was saying exactly what you are saying. The regular season is already watered down enough in many cases IMO not exactly from our perspective since we need just about every win we can get. If there were 96 teams, the regular season would be even more meaningless than it currently is.
L Buff
Commissar of the Albuffs Collective Left
That ... and also a "late game exhaustion" thingy.
It's why I believe that we should never lose a game on missed late game fouls shots (given our altitude advantage). And that Tad should have the guys practicing free throws after several wind sprints at the end of practices. Nail those, and you'll win a lot of games at the foul line.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Missouri falls at miserable Alabama. SEC clearly deserves 2 bids, that's it.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
RPI now 28. Bubble was full of fail today (highlighted by Tennessee and Mizzou both losing to sub 100 opposition to make the SEC look to be a 2 bid league, 3 max) Don't see tonight changing anything in regards to one more win sealing the deal.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Sunday:
SMU 21-6 (10-4) @ #21 UConn 21-5 (9-4): SMU is in good shape on the right side of things. Loss to Temple last week is the only reason they're still being mentioned. RPI is 44, they're likely a 10 seed at the moment. They've got some very nice wins. A win here at UConn would just about lock up a bid. They've got 3 brutal games in these last 4 (this, UCF, Louisville, @ Memphis) but as long as they beat lowly UCF and avoid a horrible first game conference tournament loss, it should be a straightforward Selection Sunday. The true bubble teams just do not have the quality wins SMU does.
Nebraska 15-10 (7-6) vs Purdue 15-11 (5-8): Bubble teams failing left and right continues to give Nebraska hope. RPI is 52, wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, one bad loss (UAB) and a favorable remaining schedule. The margin for error is slim and they'll probably falter in a couple games, but until they do they're still in the picture. Certainly have to get this home win over Purdue.
Florida State 15-11 (6-8) @ Pittsburgh 20-6 (8-5): Noles are a long shot at this point. ACC just doesn't have the depth to excuse a sub-.500 record this year. RPI has tumbled all the way to 68. Noles are going to need to win their remaining 4 games to have a legitimate shot. Road win here at Pitt would be a lifeline. If they lose, that's probably the end for FSU realistically.
Arizona State 19-7 (8-5) @ Utah 17-9 (6-8): ASU's loss at CU didn't do any real damage. They're still in good shape. Likely a 9 or 10. RPI is 33, only one bad loss (Miami) and they've got wins over Zona, CU, Cal and Oregon. A loss at Utah wouldn't do them any favors, but despite their weak OOC, another win or two will seal the deal for ASU.
Cal 17-9 (8-5) vs USC 10-16 (1-12): Cal is likely a 10 seed at the moment. However, their RPI is 48 and they have two sub-100 losses (one of which is USC). However, the win over Arizona is the feather in their cap. Also have beaten Stanford and Oregon. Obviously another loss to USC would be a disaster, they've certainly got to win this one before going on the road to the desert next week (and probably taking 2 losses).
Oregon 17-8 (5-8) vs Washington State 9-17 (2-12): Oregon continues to slowly but surely pick up conference wins now that they've hit the favorable portion of their Pac schedule. Ducks RPI is a solid 38. With bubble teams like Tennessee and Missouri failing hard, Oregon has an opening to exploit. Obviously beating Wazzu is a must. Then they've got @ UCLA, @ USC, ASU, Arizona. If they win 3 of those 4 and finish 21-9 (8-10) and have a decent Pac tournament, I think they'll make it. That's a tall order against tough competition, but with the bubble in its current state, Oregon is very much alive.
SMU 21-6 (10-4) @ #21 UConn 21-5 (9-4): SMU is in good shape on the right side of things. Loss to Temple last week is the only reason they're still being mentioned. RPI is 44, they're likely a 10 seed at the moment. They've got some very nice wins. A win here at UConn would just about lock up a bid. They've got 3 brutal games in these last 4 (this, UCF, Louisville, @ Memphis) but as long as they beat lowly UCF and avoid a horrible first game conference tournament loss, it should be a straightforward Selection Sunday. The true bubble teams just do not have the quality wins SMU does.
Nebraska 15-10 (7-6) vs Purdue 15-11 (5-8): Bubble teams failing left and right continues to give Nebraska hope. RPI is 52, wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, one bad loss (UAB) and a favorable remaining schedule. The margin for error is slim and they'll probably falter in a couple games, but until they do they're still in the picture. Certainly have to get this home win over Purdue.
Florida State 15-11 (6-8) @ Pittsburgh 20-6 (8-5): Noles are a long shot at this point. ACC just doesn't have the depth to excuse a sub-.500 record this year. RPI has tumbled all the way to 68. Noles are going to need to win their remaining 4 games to have a legitimate shot. Road win here at Pitt would be a lifeline. If they lose, that's probably the end for FSU realistically.
Arizona State 19-7 (8-5) @ Utah 17-9 (6-8): ASU's loss at CU didn't do any real damage. They're still in good shape. Likely a 9 or 10. RPI is 33, only one bad loss (Miami) and they've got wins over Zona, CU, Cal and Oregon. A loss at Utah wouldn't do them any favors, but despite their weak OOC, another win or two will seal the deal for ASU.
Cal 17-9 (8-5) vs USC 10-16 (1-12): Cal is likely a 10 seed at the moment. However, their RPI is 48 and they have two sub-100 losses (one of which is USC). However, the win over Arizona is the feather in their cap. Also have beaten Stanford and Oregon. Obviously another loss to USC would be a disaster, they've certainly got to win this one before going on the road to the desert next week (and probably taking 2 losses).
Oregon 17-8 (5-8) vs Washington State 9-17 (2-12): Oregon continues to slowly but surely pick up conference wins now that they've hit the favorable portion of their Pac schedule. Ducks RPI is a solid 38. With bubble teams like Tennessee and Missouri failing hard, Oregon has an opening to exploit. Obviously beating Wazzu is a must. Then they've got @ UCLA, @ USC, ASU, Arizona. If they win 3 of those 4 and finish 21-9 (8-10) and have a decent Pac tournament, I think they'll make it. That's a tall order against tough competition, but with the bubble in its current state, Oregon is very much alive.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
SMU just got a 9 point win on the road at UConn. With 22 wins, including some very quality ones, I pronounce SMU safe.