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Official 2022 Season Prediction Thread

How many wins?

  • Total voters
    154
  • Poll closed .
manhattanbuff said:
39 people have so far guessed 4+ wins. I wonder how many of those 39 would place a four figure+ wager on Buffs OV 3.5 season wins (getting serious plus money).

Line should be O/U 2 people? 3 people?
Click to expand...
I think that's a fair question of anyone who gambles. Ultimately, I guess what you're getting at is "what would people say if they divorced all emotion and bias to only evaluate the Buffs objectively"?

For me, I'd probably be around 3 or 4 wins if I did it that way. And I couldn't tell you which 3 or 4 since they're the less likely winner in every single game but a less than 50% chance over 12 attempts is extremely unlikely to result in not winning a few.

Also, things can change significantly after the season starts and stuff we can't account for now (momentum, health, chemistry, breakout performers) impact a team's fortunes. My emotions and biases cause me to believe those things will break CU's way much more than they will for other teams on the schedule.
 
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What you can't account for and the reason I expect us to get our 2-3 wins is that other teams have bad games as well.

Some teams will overlook a CU others don't travel well. You might see an otherwise solid team make some mistakes and snowball into a big loss.

At the end of the year you really weren't better than anyone but you have a couple wins.
 
manhattanbuff said:
39 people have so far guessed 4+ wins. I wonder how many of those 39 would place a four figure+ wager on Buffs OV 3.5 season wins (getting serious plus money).

Line should be O/U 2 people? 3 people?
Click to expand...
I would never place a four figure bet on anything cause I like to keep my money. I put 4 wins because I am an optimist. I haven’t obsessed over the schedule to find the four wins and I don’t care too. I filled out a poll on a website run by men obsessed with watching boys run around in tight pants, I don’t take my answer that seriously.
 
Buffnik said:
I think that's a fair question of anyone who gambles. Ultimately, I guess what you're getting at is "what would people say if they divorced all emotion and bias to only evaluation the Buffs objectively"?

For me, I'd probably be around 3 or 4 wins if I did it that way. And I couldn't tell you which 3 or 4 since they're the less likely winner in every single game but a less than 50% chance over 12 attempts is extremely unlikely to result in not winning a few.

Also, things can change significantly after the season starts and stuff we can't account for now (momentum, health, chemistry, breakout performers) impact a team's fortunes. My emotions and biases cause me to believe those things will break CU's way much more than they will for other teams on the schedule.
Click to expand...
I guess what I’m really asking is… how many people who predicted 4+ wins would be willing to put their money where their mouth is…
 
manhattanbuff said:
I guess what I’m really asking is… how many people who predicted 4+ wins would be willing to put their money where their mouth is…
Click to expand...
And some of us wouldn't do that with anything for which there is a high degree of risk/uncertainty and we can't control the outcome. I don't even invest in things besides my own ventures unless they're very secure, predictable and liquid.
 
manhattanbuff said:
I guess what I’m really asking is… how many people who predicted 4+ wins would be willing to put their money where their mouth is…
Click to expand...
How many of the 68 people who chose fewer than 4 wins would be willing to put four figures on that outcome? I know you would and probably already have, but you're a degenerate.

How many of the 41 people who chose 2, 1, or 0 wins are willing to bet four figures on that?

I suspect most people on this site are viewing and making their predictions through an emotional fan lens one way or the other.
 
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The Alabaster Yak said:
How many of the 68 people who chose less than 4 wins would be willing to put four figures on that outcome? I know you would and probably already have, but you're a degenerate.

How many of the 41 people who chose 2, 1, or 0 wins are willing to bet four figures on that?

I suspect most people on this site are viewing and making their predictions through an emotional fan lens one way or the other.
Click to expand...
The 2.5 juiced line provides a nice opportunity for anybody who really thinks 4.

The 3.5 line does similarly for the under crowd.

I have no bet.
 
Gone are the days of pessimism (KD getting hired) and panic (coach sled), Buffs turn the corner this year with competent coaching and a mildly talented team. Fans and pundits are in the despair phase, but have hope, cause the bear market of Buffs football is coming to an end.

We see a team donning the black and gold in Folsom, play with actual heart for the first time since 2016.

Buffs shock not only the world, but the entire fan base and Boulder with an unbelievable 7 wins.

to the dismay of many, KD gets resigned to a 5 year deal 😭☠️
AA9865F1-FA3E-4010-843B-555E5A1FDD0F.png
 
FLounder said:
Gone are the days of pessimism (KD getting hired) and panic (coach sled), Buffs turn the corner this year with competent coaching and a mildly talented team. Fans and pundits are in the despair phase, but have hope, cause the bear market of Buffs football is coming to an end.

We see a team donning the black and gold in Folsom, play with actual heart for the first time since 2016.

Buffs shock not only the world, but the entire fan base and Boulder with an unbelievable 7 wins.

to the dismay of many, KD gets resigned to a 5 year deal 😭☠️
View attachment 53574
Click to expand...
If we go 7-5, I don't think KD will be unpopular any more as long as the roster doesn't get gutted/poached after the season.
 
Heywood said:
I would never place a four figure bet on anything cause I like to keep my money. I put 4 wins because I am an optimist. I haven’t obsessed over the schedule to find the four wins and I don’t care too. I filled out a poll on a website run by men obsessed with watching boys run around in tight pants, I don’t take my answer that seriously.
Click to expand...
Interesting. I too am an optimist. That’s why I predicted 2 wins.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
How many of the 68 people who chose fewer than 4 wins would be willing to put four figures on that outcome? I know you would and probably already have, but you're a degenerate.

How many of the 41 people who chose 2, 1, or 0 wins are willing to bet four figures on that?

I suspect most people on this site are viewing and making their predictions through an emotional fan lens one way or the other.
Click to expand...
Fair point. Under 3.5 wins is the favorite by a significant margin.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
How many of the 68 people who chose fewer than 4 wins would be willing to put four figures on that outcome? I know you would and probably already have, but you're a degenerate.

How many of the 41 people who chose 2, 1, or 0 wins are willing to bet four figures on that?

I suspect most people on this site are viewing and making their predictions through an emotional fan lens one way or the other.
Click to expand...
FTR I hit the over on 3 wins HARD and it had absolutely nothing to do with heart, only head. The data says we likely win 3 if all goes as it should. We win 1 or 2 and KD likely gets kicked out the door = win. They win 3, I push and there's a pretty good chance KD is sent packing = win. We hit 4 or 5 wins, I win big $ and there's a decent chance KD is fired = win/win. 6+ wins, we go bowling, I win big $ and I have somewhere new to go for the holidays - win/win/win.
I CAN'T LOSE!!! :cool:
 
Da Lama said:
FTR I hit the over on 3 wins HARD and it had absolutely nothing to do with heart, only head. The data says we likely win 3 if all goes as it should. We win 1 or 2 and KD likely gets kicked out the door = win. They win 3, I push and there's a pretty good chance KD is sent packing = win. We hit 4 or 5 wins, I win big $ and there's a decent chance KD is fired = win/win. 6+ wins, we go bowling, I win big $ and I have somewhere new to go for the holidays - win/win/win.
I CAN'T LOSE!!! :cool:
Click to expand...
Which 3? 4?
 
Da Lama said:
FTR I hit the over on 3 wins HARD and it had absolutely nothing to do with heart, only head. The data says we likely win 3 if all goes as it should. We win 1 or 2 and KD likely gets kicked out the door = win. They win 3, I push and there's a pretty good chance KD is sent packing = win. We hit 4 or 5 wins, I win big $ and there's a decent chance KD is fired = win/win. 6+ wins, we go bowling, I win big $ and I have somewhere new to go for the holidays - win/win/win.
I CAN'T LOSE!!! :cool:
Click to expand...
We go 0-12 and KD is back for next season.
 
Ruckus said:
We go 0-12 and KD is back for next season.
Click to expand...
Sad Jim Carrey GIF
 
Da Lama said:
FTR I hit the over on 3 wins HARD and it had absolutely nothing to do with heart, only head. The data says we likely win 3 if all goes as it should. We win 1 or 2 and KD likely gets kicked out the door = win. They win 3, I push and there's a pretty good chance KD is sent packing = win. We hit 4 or 5 wins, I win big $ and there's a decent chance KD is fired = win/win. 6+ wins, we go bowling, I win big $ and I have somewhere new to go for the holidays - win/win/win.
I CAN'T LOSE!!! :cool:
Click to expand...
I honestly don't think KD is fired in any of those scenarios
 
Buffnik said:
If we go 7-5, I don't think KD will be unpopular any more as long as the roster doesn't get gutted/poached after the season.
Click to expand...

If KD goes 7-5 with this roster, I will take back every nasty thing I said about KD and RG. I will also send the AD a check.








Spoiler: I will not be sending the AD a check, nor will I take back that KD is a "boring, mediocre coach who lacks vision and has no business leading an FBS program, much less a P5 program" or that RG is "a spineless coward who is collecting a paycheck and passing the time hanging out with his grandkids and collecting shoes until limpdick Distefano retires."
 
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