The reason CU is bubble team is PAC-12 stumbled in non-conference again. We can’t raise NET fast enough to move needle much. BIG-12 changes that forever; way more Quad 1&2 games give way more chances to not let 1-2 Quad-3&4 loses ruin our season. +Tad Ball better fit in BIG12. Mega conferences benefit, as long as NCAA continues to use NET as primary metric. D&Rbding -and raising our toughness profile a notch- gives Buffs better chance at NCAA invites in regular 5-8 range of BIG12 vs 1-4 range of PAC-12. That’s just the reality.
I agree parity has a lot to do with extra covid year, transfer portal, even greater number of grad transfers (w/ change of 2 years paid for at new grad school vs. 1 year paid to stay at same school. Obviously only 1 year to play).
But overlooked is fact that:
1) HS 2nd & 3rd Tier talent (Top 100-150-200ish) has no High Majors left to get to (all the spots taken with extra covid/ portal).
2) Especially recent deeper West Coast talent falling through cracks to mid-majors. Mtn West is on verge of having as many NCAA bids as PAC & ACC put together=6. Not sure what they’ll call the conference, but it’s ready to be dubed something other than Mid-Major. Even before adding PAC-2.
3) California has had more 5 stars & more top-150 talent than Texas or Florida in recent years (previously unheard of) and they’re choosing to stay closer to home. Maybe West Coast talent fills BIG-10 & Big-12 schools- to get occasional road trip back west? Mid-west is already most under-valued/ under-utilized location along w/ west. Or maybe after ‘25-and end of extra Covid years- Mountain West stops getting a higher talent level & balance of mid-major powers moves back East to American Athletic Conference or such? I honestly think the depth of talent in West is here to stay. I’ve been shocked to watch Top 120-140 guys (high 3 star/low 4 stars) out west only get a few high-major offers, when guys with Similar rankings & similar games back east get 1-2 dozen high-major offers. Which has always been a little bit the case, but it’s been an extreme shift in recent years. New Norm?
Luke, you raised some good information/questions. CU looks decent in the Net (30) and KenPom (29). They have @Ore which should be a tier 1 win, and ORE might be leaking some oil, but we are hurt. In ESPN's BPI (which I think Lunardi uses) CU's ranking 52, which hurts. The BPI has a bunch of 17-12 and even two 16-13 (sorry Hokie!) teams ahead of them--this ranking is very skewed to certain conferences. Except for one season, where the PAC played an awesome NCAA tourney, the PAC presense has been less and less. Going back to the Sarangin conference rankings, the Mtn West has been ahead of the PAC practically every season, with the PAC lagging other major conferences by a wide-margin. To me, this is more indicative of the PAC-12 struggles for many years.
CU's non-conference schedule was not awful on paper--it is just that Colorado St. (sort of in free fall), Miami, Fla. State, and the others have not done much. Richmond and Pepperdine were not bad OOC opponents, but only Richmond had a decent season. Richmond can help the most (Net 70), they have 2 good games to close the season and impressive record--22-7 (14-2 #1 in A-Ten), they could jump a Quad for our neutral site win. Iona of all teams, might jump a Quad. What is killing CU is really the Big-East 9 teams w/ Top 70 net, in 11 team conference. It is nice that there is a selection committee, and the Net just slots teams together, but does not pick them.
The B-12 will solve CU PAC woes, but only if we put a competitive team out there. We still need 19-20 wins and go .500 in conference for a bid. That could be a tough lift. We take UoA, UU, and ASU with us. We are 2-4 against them this season. Then we are joining a bunch of great teams. Road wins will be hard to come bye, just like beating UoA, Kansas and XX at home. It is not going to get easier.
