Official Allbuffs 2021 gambling thread

[hawg1]

Thanks for the picks @hawg1. We both made money. Rockies-DBacks.....is the under the only play?

Rockies under at home especially vs a good pitcher. Market still overestimating Coors effect. A couple of R pitchers have better home!!! splits. R don’t hit bombs. Been good money.

 

[ahoelsken]

Rockies under at home especially vs a good pitcher. Market still overestimating Coors effect. A couple of R pitchers have better home!!! splits. R don’t hit bombs. Been good money.

I'm gonna do that tomorrow. On Braves ML tonight (Pirates blow ass).

 

[hawg1]

Cards Giants under 8
Paul over 1.5 threes

 

[ahoelsken]

Today for me:

Italy ML-Loss
Mickelson/Brady in the match-"Brooksie" looks to be in a bit of a funk.
D-Backs ML
Braves ML
Blue Jays ML

 

[hawg1]

Today for me:

Italy ML-Loss
Mickelson/Brady in the match-"Brooksie" looks to be in a bit of a funk.
D-Backs ML
Braves ML
Blue Jays ML

Watch cPaul three prop. Buick’s give up more corner threes than anybody. Paul has been taking 6-7 per game recently.

 

[ahoelsken]

Watch cPaul three prop. Buick’s give up more corner threes than anybody. Paul has been taking 6-7 per game recently.

I'll check that before tomorrow. Here's my today:

Reds ML at Kansas City-The Royals are starting Brady Singer....not impressed
Jays/Orioles under 10.5-Matt Harvey/Hyun-Jin Ryu are the starters here.....10.5's too high I think given that.
Lightning -1.5-Tampa clinches tonight easily.
England ML-They're not losing to Denmark at Wembley with a finals berth on the line.

 

[hawg1]

I'll check that before tomorrow. Here's my today:

Reds ML at Kansas City-The Royals are starting Brady Singer....not impressed
Jays/Orioles under 10.5-Matt Harvey/Hyun-Jin Ryu are the starters here.....10.5's too high I think given that.
Lightning -1.5-Tampa clinches tonight easily.
England ML-They're not losing to Denmark at Wembley with a finals berth on the line.

Yes. I have England -137.

 

[hawg1]

Booker under 5.5 rebounds. Doesn’t want to mix it up with nose.

 

[ahoelsken]

Booker under 5.5 rebounds. Doesn’t want to mix it up with nose.

I have him with 25+ points, CP3 with 8 assists, and Phoenix to cover. Need one more CP3 assist. Made some quick money betting the Rockies (got them giving -3.5 runs and under 15 in the 7th inning today) as well.

Planning bets on the Dodgers and Padres this weekend-The Rockies will get swept in San Diego, and I expect LA to kick Arizona's asses all weekend.

 

[ahoelsken]

White Sox ML at Baltimore and the Padres -1.5 runs for me.

 

[ahoelsken]

Fanduel is doing a risk free bet on the UFC fight tomorrow-got separate bets on Poirier to win and do so by submission. This feels like a big publicity stunt that won't live up to the billing. Poirier is going to kick McGregor's ass.

 

[ahoelsken]

Double

 

[ahoelsken]

Cowboys +128 to miss the playoffs?

 

[onealcd]

Cowboys +128 to miss the playoffs?

They are going to be a pleasant surprise, imo.

 

[ahoelsken]

Gonna jump on the Colts under 8.5 unless they add a proven QB who can at least get them through this year. I don't see much difference between Sam Ehlinger and Curtis Painter or whatever that guy's name was they went 2-14 with the year they got the #1 pick. Thinking I'll go under on Philly, too-but that might be because I've spent too much time listening to Stink mock Nick Sirianni.

#systems

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Gonna jump on the Colts under 8.5 unless they add a proven QB who can at least get them through this year. I don't see much difference between Sam Ehlinger and Curtis Painter or whatever that guy's name was they went 2-14 with the year they got the #1 pick. Thinking I'll go under on Philly, too-but that might be because I've spent too much time listening to Stink mock Nick Sirianni.

#systems

Careful. Both Wentz and Nelson are at practice watching today with no boot, post surgery. Some people think they could both be back sooner than expected.

 

[ahoelsken]

Careful. Both Wentz and Nelson are at practice watching today with no boot, post surgery. Some people think they could both be back sooner than expected.

Not in a rush on to make a call on that one right now. You like Philly under 6.5? Sirianni seems like he's going to be an epic disaster.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Not in a rush on that one. Its a maybe for now. You like Philly under 6.5? Sirianni seems like he's going to be an epic disaster.

I have no idea how to think about O/U with a 17 game season. I'm not sold on Jalen Hurts as a quality starting QB, especially when you pair him with a first time HC, so yeah I think 6-11 is more likely than 7-10 for them, but they also play in one of the worst divisions in football.

 

[hawg1]

Top 5/Leans/Props/early lines




Bear

Oregon o9
Indiana u8
Old Dominion u3.5 (on this)
ULMonroe u1.5
Ville u7/6.5


Tenn u6
No Illinois u3.5

Howell Heisman 15:1

UGA NC

Wisc -4.5 vs PSU
So Alabama +1.5 vs SoMiss
FAU +25 vs UF

Stanford Steve

BC o7 (i’m on this)
Toledo o8.5
PSU u9 (Wiscy dependent)
UCONN o2.5
KSU o5.5

Texas u9
UNC u10 (I’m on this)

Ritter Heisman 28:1

Utah conf 9/1
OSU conf -180

VaTech + 5.5 vs UNC
SJSU +16 vs USC
UCF vs Boise

 

[hawg1]

I hit ODU under 4.5 hard on FD. -130.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

Top 5/Leans/Props/early lines




Bear

Oregon o9
Indiana u8
Old Dominion u3.5 (on this)
ULMonroe u1.5
Ville u7/6.5


Tenn u6
No Illinois u3.5

Howell Heisman 15:1

UGA NC

Wisc -4.5 vs PSU
So Alabama +1.5 vs SoMiss
FAU +25 vs UF

Stanford Steve

BC o7 (i’m on this)
Toledo o8.5
PSU u9 (Wiscy dependent)
UCONN o2.5
KSU o5.5

Texas u9
UNC u10 (I’m on this)

Ritter Heisman 28:1

Utah conf 9/1
OSU conf -180

VaTech + 5.5 vs UNC
SJSU +16 vs USC
UCF vs Boise

I heard an interview with Bear the other morning and he was pretty high on both Oregon and Utah. I don't think Oregon wins the North (I think UW does) but I could still see Oregon winning 10 games. Hard to seem them losing less than 9 unless things fall apart for them.

Regarding UNC most are high on them to win the Coastal but they lost a ton at the skill positions and that's alot to put on Howell. And the doubt in everyone's mind is whether they can live up to expectations since they haven't done it before. Fair or not that's how they're viewed and I tend to agree. In fact I love VT to pull the upset in the opener on a Friday night in Blacksburg.

 

[hawg1]

I heard an interview with Bear the other morning and he was pretty high on both Oregon and Utah. I don't think Oregon wins the North (I think UW does) but I could still see Oregon winning 10 games. Hard to seem them losing less than 9 unless things fall apart for them.

Regarding UNC most are high on them to win the Coastal but they lost a ton at the skill positions and that's alot to put on Howell. And the doubt in everyone's mind is whether they can live up to expectations since they haven't done it before. Fair or not that's how they're viewed and I tend to agree. In fact I love VT to pull the upset in the opener on a Friday night in Blacksburg.

Thanks for thoughts on UNC and Howell.

 

[onealcd]

By the way Utah is +600 to win the pac 12.

 

[onealcd]

Also if you are looking for another long odds conference winner, Wisconsin is +600

 

[Bread]

By the way Utah is +600 to win the pac 12.

I might just have to hop on that.

 

[Bread]

For the first time in probably 5 or 6 years, I do NOT think the CU win total over is a near lock. If anything I think the line is pretty spot on. Anyone leaning one way or the other? I might just stay away from this one this year.

 

[hawg1]

For the first time in probably 5 or 6 years, I do NOT think the CU win total over is a near lock. If anything I think the line is pretty spot on. Anyone leaning one way or the other? I might just stay away from this one this year.

I too avoided it this year after winning over like you last few years.

I sprinkled a bit on under Saturday after JT news

 

[ahoelsken]

For the first time in probably 5 or 6 years, I do NOT think the CU win total over is a near lock. If anything I think the line is pretty spot on. Anyone leaning one way or the other? I might just stay away from this one this year.

I sprinkled a bit on under Saturday after JT news

Got my season bets in tonight-I've got the following:

1. Nebraska Under 6-There's no way they hit that number even if everything goes right for them. I don't get why they're getting a touchdown against Illinois. Illinois pasted them last year.
2. Arizona Under 2.5-I think they're gonna beat Northern Arizona. Other than that, I could see them stealing a game somewhere (San Diego State or Cal maybe?) but that's it.
3. Tennessee Over 6-I think they're going 7-5. Their toughest OOC game is against Pitt, and that's at home. They play Vandy. That's a sure W. I can find another couple wins there-South Carolina, Missouri, Ole Miss possible.
4. Titans to win the AFC South-Their only competition for their division is the Colts. Can you trust a team QB'd by Carson Wentz right now? I sure as **** don't.
5. Might go under on the Eagles-Nick Sirianni seems like he's in over his head, but I could spend too much time listening to Schlereth and Evans mock him regularly....I don't know.

Looking at week 0 in CFB:

Illinois-Nebraska: Am I the only one who thinks Illinois +7 is free money?
UCLA-Hawaii: Watching the line for now.... UCLA -10 now. If it drops, I'm gonna hammer it. Hawaii's awful off the islands.
UConn-Fresno State: UConn sat last year. This game seems like a spot where an under's an excellent play, but I could be wrong.

 

[Bread]

The guys on the Cover 3 Podcast were saying Illinois +7 is definitely a steal so I laid that. Illinois smacked them last year IN Lincoln so idk how they are dogs by 7 in this one. They are also 42nd in returning production while the fuskers are 84th? Makes 0 sense.

 

[onealcd]

Got my season bets in tonight-I've got the following:

1. ****braska Under 6-There's no way they hit that number even if everything goes right for them. I don't get why they're getting a touchdown against Illinois. Illinois pasted them last year.
2. Arizona Under 2.5-I think they're gonna beat Northern Arizona. Other than that, I could see them stealing a game somewhere (San Diego State or Cal maybe?) but that's it.
3. Tennessee Over 6-I think they're going 7-5. Their toughest OOC game is against Pitt, and that's at home. They play Vandy. That's a sure W. I can find another couple wins there-South Carolina, Missouri, Ole Miss possible.
4. Titans to win the AFC South-Their only competition for their division is the Colts. Can you trust a team QB'd by Carson Wentz right now? I sure as **** don't.
5. Might go under on the Eagles-Nick Sirianni seems like he's in over his head, but I could spend too much time listening to Schlereth and Evans mock him regularly....I don't know.

Looking at week 0 in CFB:

Illinois-****braska: Am I the only one who thinks Illinois +7 is free money?
UCLA-Hawaii: Watching the line for now.... UCLA -10 now. If it drops, I'm gonna hammer it. Hawaii's awful off the islands.
UConn-Fresno State: UConn sat last year. This game seems like a spot where an under's an excellent play, but I could be wrong.

I would stay away from Tennessee. That program is a disaster right now.