What's new

Official Allbuffs CFB gambling thread

ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
Been betting the MLS is back tourney using fanduel sportsbook (so they give you various under choices-I do 2.5)-had it every game so far and its hit in all but the Inter Miami-Orlando match Wednesday.
 

torerobuff

Dancing is forbidden
Club Member
If you aren't taking advantage of the free promo money that multiple books are giving you for signing up, as an entertainment dollars gambler, you're doing it wrong.

Also, betting Bryson DeChambeau top 10s has been a very profitable way to scratch my gambling itch until more sports return.
 

ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
@manhattanbuf thoughts on fanduel?
I'm not Manhattan, and he's got a lot more knowledge here than I do-but fanduel hasn't been bad. Its all I'm using (I got basically a $100 dollar credit between $50 they gave me when I signed up and their anything book) for right now. The location finder thing is a little goofy, but if it doesn't catch mine right, I just reset the phone and try again.

I'm stopping when the credit I have runs out.
 

whatthebuff

Club Member
Club Member
If you aren't taking advantage of the free promo money that multiple books are giving you for signing up, as an entertainment dollars gambler, you're doing it wrong.

Also, betting Bryson DeChambeau top 10s has been a very profitable way to scratch my gambling itch until more sports return.
Yo, can you please let us know how to take advantage of said free promo money? I want to put cash on the Nuggs to win it all.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
Circa, Superbook, and Southpoint are the only sportsbooks in America who don’t ban winning players.
I didn't realize banning people for winning was a practice. It occurs to me that gamblers might effect change through PR-shaming those casinos who do: "There's no point working with MGM -- if you win they'll disengage".

actually, after typing that out, I'm shocked that their competitors don't have this marketing campaign going. it seems those who don't ban winning gamblers have a HUUUGE market differentiator to exploit. Maybe those casinos that don't ban are afraid of handicapping themselves from reversing that policy when you start taking all their money.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
I didn't realize banning people for winning was a practice. It occurs to me that gamblers might effect change through PR-shaming those casinos who do: "There's no point working with MGM -- if you win they'll disengage".

actually, after typing that out, I'm shocked that their competitors don't have this marketing campaign going. it seems those who don't ban winning gamblers have a HUUUGE market differentiator to exploit. Maybe those casinos that don't ban are afraid of handicapping themselves from reversing that policy when you start taking all their money.
I'll let someone else explain the nuances to you, but sports betting is much closer to blackjack, where players are playing "against the house," than it is to poker, where players are playing "against each other."

And yes, casinos ban blackjack players who consistently win too.
 

manhattanbuf

Club Member
Club Member
I didn't realize banning people for winning was a practice. It occurs to me that gamblers might effect change through PR-shaming those casinos who do: "There's no point working with MGM -- if you win they'll disengage".

actually, after typing that out, I'm shocked that their competitors don't have this marketing campaign going. it seems those who don't ban winning gamblers have a HUUUGE market differentiator to exploit. Maybe those casinos that don't ban are afraid of handicapping themselves from reversing that policy when you start taking all their money.
1. There’s a difference between winning a bet or having a lucky run of winning wagers and being a winning bettor. A winning bettor exploits poor line making as a general, long term winning strategy. They refuse to bet bad lines (i.e. lines that assign a probability of a result that’s greater than the true odds). This is why I consistently encourage y’all to bet numbers and not teams. Winning players must exploit poor line making because the bookie already has the advantage of vig and a wider pool of information from a deeper grouping of clientele.

2. Casinos regularly ban advantage players throughout. You’re a smart math guy. If I were to bet on you being able to successfully implement a card counting strategy in blackjack before a pit ban, you’d be a favorite to beat the casino playing blackjack in the long run with an adequate bankroll (likely in the range of -200). Let’s say a person with whom I am betting this proposition said to me, “Manhattan, I’ll give you +150 in this bet. Hokie gets a $10,000 bankroll.” That line error is worth $3.50 to every $1.00 bet. So, if our bet sizing should be $200 to win $100 on this bet, I should bet at least $700 to win $1050 (likely much more on the bet size) because of the disparity between what the line is and what it should be.

edit:

3. Winning players that have larger social media followings will also be severely limited in their max bets instead of receiving an outright ban. I’ve seen guys for whom a single unit is typically $10,000 get limited to maximum bets of $10-$20 because the book wants to create a disincentive for them to bet at all. This also allows the book’s PR people to say, “we didn’t ban Manhattan. His wager limits were reevaluated to be in line with our risk management strategy.”
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
I'll let someone else explain the nuances to you, but sports betting is much closer to blackjack, where players are playing "against the house," than it is to poker, where players are playing "against each other."

And yes, casinos ban blackjack players who consistently win too.
art math guy. If I were to bet on you being able to successfully implement a card counting strategy in blackjack before
everything you both said makes sense. I was just surprised that their customers let casinos get away with the practice of banning winners.
 

manhattanbuf

Club Member
Club Member
everything you both said makes sense. I was just surprised that their customers let casinos get away with the practice of banning winners.
They’re private establishments with significant ties to the government given the tax dollars that are paid by losing players. The casino makes much more money from losing players. What’s not to get?
 

torerobuff

Dancing is forbidden
Club Member

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
They’re private establishments with significant ties to the government given the tax dollars that are paid by losing players. The casino makes much more money from losing players. What’s not to get?
I "get" it. my comment was that I was surprised, not that I didn't understand.
 

manhattanbuf

Club Member
Club Member
I will always give away my American college football picks for free. My european football picks are too lucrative to share. The lines are becoming sharper. I used to sell to a big client base worldwide, but I stopped when John and I became betting partners.
 
Top