I love A&M +19.5
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Official Allbuffs CFB gambling thread
- Thread starter ahoelsken
- Start date
I love A&M +19.5
The line has already moved to 18.5 at Circa. If it gets 16.5 offshore, Clemson will be a go.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Texas is going to beat LSU
FLounder
Think Positive and life will be Positive.
What makes you say this.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
One, I don't trust LSU's offense in a game like this. Two, Tom Herman (in my opinion) is a better coach than Eddy O. Three (and most importantly), I've got money on Texas winning the Big 12 and making the CFP.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I'm going to do the same thing with that game. Other lines that popped out at me:
Michigan giving 23 at home against Army
Washington giving 13.5 to Cal at home
Hawaii -5 at home against the Beaver
Also taking the under tonight in Notre Dame-Louisville.
To hell with the points, Buffs +175 to win!!!
I feel like I’ve already won with the current line value.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
Yes. 7.5 was a steal.
I feel like I do enough gambling on CFB to be mostly knowledgeable, but I'm not really sure what you mean by it's a preferred bet not just an emotional play?
hawg1
Well-Known Member
A CU fan (or a joe) taking 2.5 is an emotional bet to me, driven often by perceived biases. For many professional betters, they will pass on a 2.5 line in search of better value, or prefer to play a live dog than a short dog.
Just my 2 cents. There are many approaches to betting. This one just reflects my betting values approach. Others may differ or disagree.
I like LSU a lot this week.
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hawg1
Well-Known Member
Who is Stanford QB? I’d lean USC, certainly if it’s not Costello.
I have short dogs/favs.
USC without Daniels?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Even with a true freshman QB in career start #1?
I took Stanford the minute I found out that Daniels tore his ACL. I feel really bad for the kid, but when both starting QB's go down, I would lean towards "who has the better staff to gameplan for that" and that was about the easiest answer to any question ever.
I'd stay away from this one. Too many unknowns.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Yeah agree-Seems like a 17-14 Stanford kind of game. Parlaying Cardinal and the point/the under.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
Probably, but this is a stay away for me. Too many unknowns. I’d take Akron before Stanford. Just me.
Good luck. Cash one.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Couldn't disagree more, and I've got money on Tom Herman already. Can't wait for that one.
The sharp line movement away from Texas disagrees with your assessment. The line is close enough to make UT a buy-back play, but LSU has all of the sharp money so far.
hawg1
Well-Known Member
I think LSU will win. They have better athletes. I can’t lay 7 though. If the buyback hits 5, I’ll hop in. Or maybe a little ML play on LSU. This started early at Texas -1 preseason.
‘sken may be right. I don’t see it. UT depth at RB is stretched thin. Love the moxie of Texas QB, but if he tries to take on too much of the run burden, he could get rung up by those LSU missiles.
Texas +7/7.5 is the only Texas line in the game that makes sense. The market got there briefly, but receded quickly. If the line settles around 5.5/6, LSU gets there and covers enough for it to make sense.