Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

[Hank]

I guess he was just joking.

 

[Buffs35]

 

[Alfred91]

That alone makes every bit of this bull**** worth it.

 

[Alfred91]

I guess he was just joking.

 

[hokiehead]

well, DJT and I have common ground on one issue. go figure.

I'm waiting to hear Biden's remarks on the FSU snub before I register Republican though.

 

[Uncle Ken]

So just to make sure I understand incentive alignment correctly…..

Georgia loses to Alabama, but Milroe is healthy so Alabama goes to playoff.

Georgia loses to Alabama, but they bounty Milroe (ala Blackburn/CSU) and injure him so Georgia goes to the playoff.

CFP, ESPN, SEC, referees, and internal audit are heavily incentivized for Georgia to win the NC. No case of wrongdoing is found. Pass Go and collect $200


I really am starting to hate this sport and I’m gonna have to pick an NFL team soon. Dying traditions, one-year mercenaries, never ending arms race of raw donations, no competitive balance, all incentives encouraging cheating/bad officiating/corruption, etc. NFL is starting to look much more worth my time tbh

Yeah the fight song matters. Bands matter. Rivalries matter. Tradition matters. Kids coming to your school, living in the dorms, walking the same halls, going to the restaurants, sharing a common experience with you and growing up in the town where you can see them develop matters. All that **** is what makes CFB different than the NFL.

If we’re NFL-lite with more corruption, worse talent, and I’m on the hook for the bill, then there’s no reason to watch imo

/rant

I did not anticipate that it would be Les who captured my thoughts on the matter so clearly.

 

[Denver_sc]

Because the prevailing groupthink is that Alabama is more likely to win a playoff game than Florida State and that is more important than actual on-field results.

Ah... the "4 best teams" argument, which @hawk1 mentioned, and which clearly applied in '21 when Cincinnati made it. Or last year, when TCU made it. Or in 2018, when ND made it over OSU.

The committee acts completely opaquely, derives an outcome that they want, and then justify it with hand waving arguments that change year to year, and apparently some people just eat it up. This sport is broken, and I'm not sure going to 12 seeds next year fixes it (although I do admit I would have a much harder time feeling sorry for LSU/Arizona being excluded this year).

 

[Buffnik]

Ah... the "4 best teams" argument, which @hawk1 mentioned, and which clearly applied in '21 when Cincinnati made it. Or last year, when TCU made it. Or in 2018, when ND made it over OSU.

The committee acts completely opaquely, derives an outcome that they want, and then justify it with hand waving arguments that change year to year, and apparently some people just eat it up. This sport is broken, and I'm not sure going to 12 seeds next year fixes it (although I do admit I would have a much harder time feeling sorry for LSU/Arizona being excluded this year).

The problem with selection won't go away with expansion, but as you pointed out, it's much better to screw up #12 than #4.

 

[hawg1]

I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but I can't wrap my head around being ranked #4, winning vs #14 despite having to play the true frosh backup QB because the starter was out with a concussion, seeing #1 and #5 lose, but dropping in the rankings to #5.

The dynamics were a perfect storm, including UT at 8. On the surface, it seems weird. But justifying FSU as better than Bama under the current circumstances (using the criteria)is even more strange to me.

 

[Robert Sorell]

This is a good point.

I think most of us, in the back of our minds, knew that if Bama beat Georgia, they'd be in. So why not put them in front of FSU the week prior?

They didn't put Bama in front of FSU the week prior bc they weren't tipping their hand. Basically, if Bama lost then they would't have had to burn one of their few remaining shreds of credibility.

 

[hawg1]

100% this.

if anything, the CFP should announce that they screwed up the ranking last week and should've had FSU rated lower at that point. then we'd be able to rationalize the point you're raising.

They got new info. UO loss. Bama win. UT win. More info for FSU w/o Travis. They didn’t have this last week.

 

[hokiehead]

They got new info. UO loss. Bama win. UT win. More info for FSU w/o Travis. They didn’t have this last week.

that's objectively false. 20 November was when Travis' injury was announced as season and collegiate career ending.

 

[hawg1]

Ah... the "4 best teams" argument, which @hawk1 mentioned, and which clearly applied in '21 when Cincinnati made it. Or last year, when TCU made it. Or in 2018, when ND made it over OSU.

The committee acts completely opaquely, derives an outcome that they want, and then justify it with hand waving arguments that change year to year, and apparently some people just eat it up. This sport is broken, and I'm not sure going to 12 seeds next year fixes it (although I do admit I would have a much harder time feeling sorry for LSU/Arizona being excluded this year).

We can’t go back. The Committee acted correctly this year.

 

[hawg1]

that's objectively false. 20 November was when Travis' injury was announced as season and collegiate career ending.

What is false? I said they got more info. They got to see FSU without Travis for another game and determined it would have an impact on postseason performance. Nothing I said was false. I know how you feel, but slow your roll a bit.

 

[hokiehead]

What is false? I said they got more info. They got to see FSU without Travis for another game and determined it would have an impact on postseason performance. Nothing I said was false. I know how you feel, but slow your roll a bit.

ok, fair. thanks -- I should've read your post with more care.

 

[Alfred91]

More info for FSU w/o Travis.

Stop. There was no new info. Unless you thought information about FSU's 3rd string QB, who won't be starting in 4 weeks, was pertinent to their decision.

Come on dude.

 

[Robert Sorell]

What is false? I said they got more info. They got to see FSU without Travis for another game and determined it would have an impact on postseason performance. Nothing I said was false. I know how you feel, but slow your roll a bit.

They got zero info on what FSU looks like with their likely starting QB for a playoff game.

They got to see the FSU defense deliver the best performance of the CCG weekend over a top 15 team.

 

[hawg1]

Stop. There was no new info. Unless you thought information about FSU's 3rd string QB, who won't be starting in 4 weeks, was pertinent to their decision.

Come on dude.

Maybe he was going to play better than QB2. Maybe QB2 was going to play after all. More info was gained.

 

[hokiehead]

They got zero info on what FSU looks like with their likely starting QB for a playoff game.

...

that's also a good point, arguably more valid than Hawg's.

 

[Flat_Iron_Rising]

Here's what primetime thinks about the controversy on 247 sports. It's at about 6:40 in the video.

 

[manhattanbuff]

It's laughable the folks that are relying on the "injured player clause" and skewed/made up SOS arguments to explain why FSU got jobbed. The only answer is that the committee was bound and determined, or flat out instructed, that an SEC team and a future SEC team must make the playoff. You can be happy that FSU got left out, but don't flatter yourselves that your double-secret probation spreadsheet has all the right answers - just own your bias.

My bias is that I prefer a system wherein an undefeated P5 that was ranked in the top 4 prior to winning a conference championship earns a slot in the playoff. If not, what's the point of the regular season/conference championships?

Without JTravis (or a comparable QB) this season, my prediction system has F$U winning just a shade under 8 games. With variance, their win total is in the 5-9 range. Like it or not, them having a QB who’s been playing major college football since 2018 is a major advantage. When he’s out, they’re an entirely different offense.

There are not many comparable players (i.e. who have a comparable skill/experience makeup) at all in the sport. My metrics have him accounting for at least three wins above replacement this season.

 

[Alfred91]

Maybe he was going to play better than QB2. Maybe QB2 was going to play after all. More info was gained.

Dude, can I save you the trouble of stanning so hard for the committee?

The rankings were what they were last week because the committee was going to just say 4 undefeated P5 champs, 4 spots, all good.

Then Alabama messed it up by beating Georgia. Suddenly there were going to have to be decisions made. Alabama was the SEC champion and had just beaten the #1 team in the country. But Texas had beaten Alabama.

Travis's injury was the way out of making a really tough decision. Instead, they said, well tough luck on the injury FSU, better luck next year.

So, in case you need it broken down further, the rankings last week were the chicken **** way out. If Texas is better than FSU this week, they were better than them last week. But putting Texas ahead of them last week would have led to some tough discussions they were hoping to avoid.

 

[Buffnik]

They didn't put Bama in front of FSU the week prior bc they weren't tipping their hand. Basically, if Bama lost then they would't have had to burn one of their few remaining shreds of credibility.

If we'd had UT #4 and FSU outside going into the final weekend, this would be much easier to swallow. With how it went down, it ends up being a disingenuous tap dance to sell it without saying what Coach Prime did today about how you can't have a legit playoff if neither Georgia nor Alabama are part of it.

 

[manhattanbuff]

If we'd had UT #4 and FSU outside going into the final weekend, this would be much easier to swallow. With how it went down, it ends up being a disingenuous tap dance to sell it without saying what Coach Prime did today about how you can't have a legit playoff if neither Georgia nor Alabama are part of it.

The rankings didn’t matter then. They were low stakes.

 

[hawg1]

Dude, can I save you the trouble of stanning so hard for the committee?

The rankings were what they were last week because the committee was going to just say 4 undefeated P5 champs, 4 spots, all good.

Then Alabama messed it up by beating Georgia. Suddenly there was going to have to be decisions made. Alabama was the SEC champion and had just beaten the #1 team in the country. But Texas had beaten Alabama.

Travis's injury was the way out of making a really tough decision. Instead, they said, well tough luck on the injury FSU, better luck next year.

So, in case you need it broken down further, the rankings last week were the chicken **** way out. If Texas is better than FSU this week, they were better than them last week. But putting Texas ahead of them last would have led to some tough discussions they were hoping to avoid.

Texas and FSU weren’t in same comparison group last week.

Last week does not impact the FSU and Bama decision this week.

Only one set of rankings matter.

 

[hawg1]

Without JTravis (or a comparable QB) this season, my prediction system has F$U winning just a shade under 8 games. With variance, their win total is in the 5-9 range. Like it or not, them having a QB who’s been playing major college football since 2018 is a major advantage. When he’s out, they’re an entirely different offense.

There are not many comparable players (i.e. who have a comparable skill/experience makeup) at all in the sport. My metrics have him accounting for at least three wins above replacement this season.

I saw another model that had 6.5 point adjustment in their power rankings. That was about 2-3 wins for them. It’s sad he got hurt. Dynamic player with a huge value to FSU.

 

[Alfred91]

Texas and FSU weren’t in same comparison group last week.

Last week does not impact the FSU and Bama decision this week.

Only one set of rankings matter.

Texas is integral to the discussion. Alabama can't be in the playoff without Texas, because you can't justify Alabama jumping Texas.

Believe me, even if you believe that the committee was on the up and up about everything, if Alabama had lost to say, Oregon, instead of Texas, we're not having this discussion today. FSU would be #3, Alabama would be #4, and Texas would be out, the reason for the jump being that Alabama beat #1. The fact that keeps the SEC champion in the playoff is just gravy.

 

[hawg1]

Texas is integral to the discussion. Alabama can't be in the playoff without Texas, because you can't justify Alabama jumping Texas.

Believe me, even if you believe that the committee was on the up and up about everything, if Alabama had lost to say, Oregon, instead of Texas, were not having this discussion today. FSU would be #3, Alabama would be #4, and Texas would be out, the reason for the jump being that Alabama beat #1. The fact that keeps the SEC champion in the playoff is just gravy.

Too many ifs.

They explained their decision this year using the criteria in the charter. You don’t like it. That’s OK. I think it’s the right decision.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

What is false? I said they got more info. They got to see FSU without Travis for another game and determined it would have an impact on postseason performance. Nothing I said was false. I know how you feel, but slow your roll a bit.

I think my general problem with this line of thinking (and group think that Bama is better then FSU) is the exactly this argument. FSU lost JT, and subsequently went on to beat FL the following week, with their back up QB, in a more impressive fashion then Bama beat UA with their starting QB. Using the "data" of FSU without JT is a fallacy, as we have no idea how good their offense would have been, had Rodemaker been given an appropriate amount of time to prep for a CFP game. i.e. the data is totally meaningless.

You can make an argument all you want about Bama being a better team, but that is purely subjective, and we really have no proof of this but for people's biased opinions, which are largely influenced by the very parties (ESPN and FOX), that have a vested interest in seeing Bama make the CFP.

The historically great thing about CFB (to me) is that you never can predict when an underdog will rise up to make noise. Being robbed of that chance when they truly did earn an opportunity (as represented by the most recent cfp standings with FSU ranked 4th) simply reeks of greed and misappropriation. Justify it however you want, but there are simply too many holes in the justifications to not leak like a sieve...which is an additional argument on it's own that W/L records (data that matters) should have overcome the day.

 

[Robert Sorell]

Too many ifs.

They explained their decision this year using the criteria in the charter. You don’t like it. That’s OK. I think it’s the right decision.

If JT wasn't injured, do you genuinely believe Bama gets left out?