Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

[hokiehead]

If JT wasn't injured, do you genuinely believe Bama gets left out?

that is a fantastic question

 

[Denver_sc]

We can’t go back. The Committee acted correctly this year.

No. They are making decisions that impact dozens of coaches, 100s of players, and millions of fans based upon what they "think" will happen. They're clearly not good at predicting what will happen given their rankings from last week. They clearly thought that this scenario (Bama win + favorites winning other CCG) wasn't going to happen. if they did, there's no way they would have put FSU over UT or Bama. There's no logical argument for them to change course on that, given that 1) FSU's defense has become a nightmare since Travis went down and 2) the likely starter at QB for FSU didn't even play this week.

 

[241Volcanos]

How about the fact Bama is the closest 1 loss team to 2 losses given their Hail Mary win 8 days before selection? They had several underwhelming games this year. Bama’s in because they’re the most dominant team the past 15 years. If Ole Miss or LSU had Bama’s resume this year, no chance they make playoff.
FSU and Bama resumes aren’t even close enough for comparison.

 

[hawg1]

If JT wasn't injured, do you genuinely believe Bama gets left out?

Yes.

 

[Robert Sorell]

I believe that if hawg was on the CFP committee, he'd put Bama in and be wholly convinced that he and everyone else in the room did so free of bias, using a clearly defined protocol.

I also believe that a lot of kids will believe the gifts they get in a few weeks were delivered by a fat man who flies around the world in a reindeer powered sleigh.

 

[hawg1]

No. They are making decisions that impact dozens of coaches, 100s of players, and millions of fans based upon what they "think" will happen. They're clearly not good at predicting what will happen given their rankings from last week. They clearly thought that this scenario (Bama win + favorites winning other CCG) wasn't going to happen. if they did, there's no way they would have put FSU over UT or Bama. There's no logical argument for them to change course on that, given that 1) FSU's defense has become a nightmare since Travis went down and 2) the likely starter at QB for FSU didn't even play this week.

They saw play without Travis with two other QBs. It’s not the same team. See Manhattan’s post.

 

[Denver_sc]

They saw play without Travis with two other QBs. It’s not the same team. See Manhattan’s post.

They are seeding based upon what they think will happen. Not what has happened. Why play the games?

 

[Robert Sorell]

Yes.

What's your opinion on the protocol?
Good incentives?
Fair/just?
Completely objective and transparent?

 

[hawg1]

I believe that if hawg was on the CFP committee, he'd put Bama in and be wholly convinced that he and everyone else in the room did so free of bias, using a clearly defined protocol.

I also believe that a lot of kids will believe the gifts they get in a few weeks were delivered by a fat man who flies around the world in a reindeer powered sleigh.

You are wrong.

I’d put any team in with the data at hand this week that was in Bama’s favor. If roles were reversed, I would have advocated just as strongly for FSU over Bama.

 

[Robert Sorell]

You are wrong.

I’d put any team in with the data at hand this week that was in Bama’s favor. If roles were reversed, I would have advocated just as strongly for FSU over Bama.

Which of my 3 assertions was wrong?

1. You pick Bama this year
2. You believe it's a choice everyone in the room made free of bias
3. Kids believe in Santa

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

They saw play without Travis with two other QBs. It’s not the same team. See Manhattan’s post.

And see my post at #839. The most apples to apples comparison in this argument is Rodemaker (who would start in the CFP) beating a UF team in a more impressive fashion, then Milroe did for Bama vs a very similar UA team.

 

[hawg1]

They are seeding based upon what they think will happen. Not what has happened. Why play the games?

The games were played.

Yes, seeding based on what has happened and what you think will happen. That’s the whole idea.

In the end this was about one spot. The Committee, with data, determined Bama was among the best 4, not FSU. I suspect they used data like Manhattan presented.

 

[Robert Sorell]

@manhattanbuff
What's your model say about Bama.

I have to think their 12 wins is on the high side of expectations given they pulled out so many close games against mediocre teams.

 

[hawg1]

Which of my 3 assertions was wrong?

1. You pick Bama this year
2. You believe it's a choice everyone in the room made free of bias
3. Kids believe in Santa

It’s clear what the Committee did. They told you how they made the decision this year. You don’t like it. That’s your right

I told you the decision I would have made if the roles were reversed as an indication of my (lack of) bias.

 

[241Volcanos]

@manhattanbuff
What's your model say about Bama.

I have to think their 12 wins is on the high side of expectations given they pulled out so many close games against mediocre teams.

Bama’s best shot is hoping the B10 was even more overrated than the SEC this year. Against P5 schools B10 was 5-8 while SEC was 7-9.
(Pac 7-3, ACC 10-9, B12 6-6)

 

[manhattanbuff]

If JT wasn't injured, do you genuinely believe Bama gets left out?

If JTravis is healthy and all else stayed the same, F$U’s wins with him would likely be more impressive/lopsided. They’d likely be vying for the second seed with UDub (according to my predictions).

I think the committee would probably put in Texas over Alabama, but I think they’d deliberate much more than folks would think.

 

[tante]

Why was Georgia number 1? Their SOS was terrible all season.

 

[hawg1]

And see my post at #839. The most apples to apples comparison in this argument is Rodemaker (who would start in the CFP) beating a UF team in a more impressive fashion, then Milroe did for Bama vs a very similar UA team.

That’s a cross team comparison that you cherry picked. You may think it’s valid. There are other comparisons you could have made. But, again, it’s moot. The Committee only considers such for same team comparisons, not cross team.

It’s a fun exercise. But not part of the Committee’s charge.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

That’s a cross team comparison that you cherry picked. You may think it’s valid. There are other comparisons you could have made. But, again, it’s moot. The Committee only considers such for same team comparisons, not cross team.

It’s a fun exercise. But not part of the Committee’s charge.

1) I think they make up their mind and justify it however they want, and 2) I wonder why they can't do cross team comparisons.......

 

[hawg1]

What's your opinion on the protocol?
Good incentives?
Fair/just?
Completely objective and transparent?

Protocol was developed by experts smarter than me. I think it is fair. It was applied correctly this year. I agree with all elements. It’s transparent. The player impact part is subjective unless supported with info such as Manhattan presented. I would add SoR and one Vegas Power Rating to the criteria. I would validate directionally with other power ratings.

 

[manhattanbuff]

@manhattanbuff
What's your model say about Bama.

I have to think their 12 wins is on the high side of expectations given they pulled out so many close games against mediocre teams.

Unclear what you’re asking.

If you’re asking about Milroe WAR, he accounts for closer to two wins in my system (just a shade under). He’s an interesting player because after Alabama coaching staff’s uncertainty about him earlier in the year, they adjusted their scheme to match his skillset. He’s performed extremely well.

If you’re asking about power rating, Alabama is the third rated team in my system. UMich is #1 and UDub is #2 (separated by very miniscule margins). <Decent gap>. Then, I have Alabama as #3, Georgia as #4, and Texas as #5.

 

[hawg1]

1) I think they make up their mind and justify it however they want, and 2) I wonder why they can't do cross team comparisons.......

Cross team comparisons are always cherry picked. That’s adds variance, bias. The example given for Milroe could have very well been the Georgia game (that’s bias) as opposed to the Aub game (that’s also bias). They don’t use cross team comparisons, nor should they.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

That’s a cross team comparison that you cherry picked. You may think it’s valid. There are other comparisons you could have made. But, again, it’s moot. The Committee only considers such for same team comparisons, not cross team.

It’s a fun exercise. But not part of the Committee’s charge.

I also don't see how this cherry picking is any less relevant then cherry picking a critical game where you are forced to start a true frosh with zero meaningful playing experience as part of your data sample.

 

[Leon Sandcastle]

Cross team comparisons are always cherry picked. That’s adds variance, bias. The example given for Milroe could have very well been the Georgia game (that’s bias) as opposed to the Aub game (that’s also bias). They don’t use cross team comparisons, nor should they.

i.e. it involves speculation and bias just like projecting how Rodemaker would perform in the CFP

 

[hawg1]

Unclear what you’re asking.

If you’re asking about Milroe WAR, he accounts for closer to two wins in my system (just a shade under). He’s an interesting player because after Alabama coaching staff’s uncertainty about him earlier in the year, they adjusted their scheme to match his skillset. He’s performed extremely well.

If you’re asking about power rating, Alabama is the third rated team in my system. UMich is #1 and UDub is #2 (separated by very miniscule margins). <Decent gap>. Then, I have Alabama as #3, Georgia as #4, and Texas as #5.

Can you say where FSU is and what the predicted spread would have been for FSU vs Bama? Ive seen 11 points from another power rating system. As you know, UGA line is 14.

 

[wsp4820]

The committee used the factors to get the result it wanted. It's no different than a judge using stare decisis in one case, public policy reasons in another, and legislative intent in another. There are multiple factors that are widely accepted, and you use/emphasize the factors that get the result you want regardless of whether there is any consistency with prior or future decisions.

 

[hawg1]

I also don't see how this cherry picking is any less relevant then cherry picking a critical game where you are forced to start a true frosh with zero meaningful playing experience as part of your data sample.

I’m appreciate you can’t see the difference. That’s on you, not me.

 

[hawg1]

The committee used the factors to get the result it wanted. It's no different than a judge using stare decisis in one case, public policy reasons in another, and legislative intent in another. There are multiple factors that are widely accepted, and you use/emphasize the factors that get the result you want regardless of whether there is any consistency with prior or future decisions.

Line up the 5 factors. See where Bama has an advantage and where FSU has an advantage.

 

[hawg1]

i.e. it involves speculation and bias just like projecting how Rodemaker would perform in the CFP

FSU’s performance in the post season without Travis would have been impacted. There are data to show this.

 

[Buffs35]

What I picture when an SEC/ESPN apologist uses buzzwords in an attempt to explain why Bama and Texas should be in over FSU after someone lays out several sounds reasons why the committee got it wrong: