Menu
What's new
By:
Filters
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!

Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

Alfred91 said:
I wish everyone stanning for Bama would just sack up and say "because SEC".

If a Big Ten or SEC champion was in the situation that FSU was in, on their 3rd string QB, with a Pac-12, Big 12, or ACC team in Bama's position, these same people would be like, "Whelp, they went undefeated, so it doesn't matter."
Click to expand...
Maybe, I think it's a bit of program and conference identity intersecting.

If it was a 13-0 Clemson team with a QB injury, then I wonder if we would be having this discussion.

If it was a 12-1 Vandy or Kentucky winning the SEC we wouldn't be having this discussion; if it was Arky, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Tennessee, A&M etc. we probably wouldn't be having this discussion; if it was LSU or Auburn we probably would.
 
hawg1 said:
Does Bama’s resume say they are a top 4 team in your opinion according to the protocol? It does to me, but I now think they get left out.
Click to expand...

It kind of depends on what you have on your resume and what you weight it on, doesn't it.

I see all of these people on social media talking about best wins and best losses, but three teams don't have any losses. So do you weight wins more than losses? Does a conference championship matter, and if so, how much?

The way I see it you have:

Washington - two top ten wins, 5 top 25 wins, no losses, P5 conference champion
Michigan - one top ten win,3 top 25 wins, no losses, P5 conference champion
FSU - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, no losses, P5 champion
Texas - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, 1 loss, P5 champion
Alabama - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, 1 loss, P5 champion
Georgia - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, 1 loss
Ohio State - two ten wins, 2 top 25 wins, 1 loss

This is really bare bones, but looking at this, considering Texas beat Alabama, I think it's plain that Texas gets in over Alabama.
 
I should say, **** everyone who is pushing for Alabama for making me say that FSU and Texas deserve anything more than repeated kicks to the nuts.
 
Highlander said:
This season makes the perfect case for the 12 team playoff that starts next year.
Click to expand...
I'll assume top 5 seeds are P5 champs by record, with H2H as tiebreaker, and CFP ranking as second tiebreaker. Take best G5 champ, and fill in rest of seeds with CFP rankings

Byes:
1. Michigan
2. Washignton
3. Florida State
4. Texas

First round
5. Bama vs 12. Liberty
6. Georgia vs. 11. Penn State
7. Ohio State vs. 10. Ole Miss
8. Oregon vs. 9. Mizzou

Flipped Ole Miss/Penn State to eliminate a SEC/SEC and B1G/B1G 1st round matchup.

I think what this does is also give a lot more data about which conference is actually better. The bowl games where the #4 B1G plays the #2 Pac, or whatever are just not that informative when the transfer portal and draft departures cannibalize those 2-deeps.
 
Buffnik said:
View attachment 67634
Click to expand...
Finebaum:
Well as you can clearly see here, the Pac 12 has the best record, but just like Bama beating #1 in last week's CFP rankings proves that you have to include Bama, the SEC's 2-1 record against the #1 ranked conference proves that you have to include the SEC champion over the ACC champion that comes from a conference with just as many P5 OOC losses as the SEC.

Edit:
Just don't mention that the two SEC over Pac12 wins are over Cal and Arizona State.
 
Last edited:
If you are lobbying for Alabama to make it over FSU because you don’t think FSU matches up well without Jordan Travis, tough ****. The games have to matter and FSU won everything in front of them, including multiple games without him and their conference, while Bama did not.

The outcome of the games on the field have to matter
 
Alfred91 said:
I wish everyone stanning for Bama would just sack up and say "because SEC".

If a Big Ten or SEC champion was in the situation that FSU was in, on their 3rd string QB, with a Pac-12, Big 12, or ACC team in Bama's position, these same people would be like, "Whelp, they went undefeated, so it doesn't matter."
Click to expand...

Bama would be 10 point favorite over FSU if they played each other right now.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
If you are lobbying for Alabama to make it over FSU because you don’t think FSU matches up well without Jordan Travis, tough ****. The games have to matter and FSU won everything in front of them, including multiple games without him and their conference, while Bama did not.

The outcome of the games on the field have to matter
Click to expand...
The injury thing irks me so badly.

Like, let's say Michael Penix Jr. or Blake Corum blows out his ACL in a practice two weeks from today; at that point, do we swap UW or UM into a NY6 bowl and call up the P5 conference champ that got left out?
 
Hank said:
Bama would be 10 point favorite over FSU if they played each other right now.
Click to expand...
Oregon was a 9.5 point favorite over Washington on Friday.

Ohio State would be a 10 point favorite over Iowa and gets left out of the B1G championship game.

Ohio State should be at least a 3 point favorite over Bama.
 
Best conspiracy theory I've seen so far:

DeSantis's fight with Disney leads ESPN to push for FSU to be kept out.

You don't have to dig that far to see why ESPN doesn't want FSU in over an SEC team, but I thought it was funny.
 
LesGrossman said:
Yeah it’s ridiculous. Don’t they weight the previous season and the preseason/offseason changes fairly heavily and FIFO the data? FPI seems like a lagging indicator at best
Click to expand...
IIRC it includes previous seasons and player's ratings as recruits.

It's supposed to be predictive, and not descriptive; and IIRC it does an OK but not great job as a predictive model.
 
Hank said:
Bama would be 10 point favorite over FSU if they played each other right now.
Click to expand...

Probably, but in the hypothetical situation you replied to, wouldn't the fictional Big 12/Pac-12/ACC school be favored by Vegas over the fictional Big Ten/SEC school?
 
Alfred91 said:
Sure didn't re: Washington/Oregon
Click to expand...
Yeah, which I think illustrates the difficulty with predictive models; they're going to miss certain matchup based nuances and more importantly just aren't designed to be great with n=2; they're designed to get your predictions to go from something like 60% correct to 70-75% correct.
 
Alfred91 said:
It kind of depends on what you have on your resume and what you weight it on, doesn't it.

I see all of these people on social media talking about best wins and best losses, but three teams don't have any losses. So do you weight wins more than losses? Does a conference championship matter, and if so, how much?

The way I see it you have:

Washington - two top ten wins, 5 top 25 wins, no losses, P5 conference champion
Michigan - one top ten win,3 top 25 wins, no losses, P5 conference champion
FSU - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, no losses, P5 champion
Texas - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, 1 loss, P5 champion
Alabama - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, 1 loss, P5 champion
Georgia - one top ten win, 3 top 25 wins, 1 loss
Ohio State - two ten wins, 2 top 25 wins, 1 loss

This is really bare bones, but looking at this, considering Texas beat Alabama, I think it's plain that Texas gets in over Alabama.
Click to expand...
Current rankings should matter more than rankings at the time two teams played. Alabama has 4 wins over teams in the CFP. Texas has 3.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Yeah, which I think illustrates the difficulty with predictive models; they're going to miss certain matchup based nuances and more importantly just aren't designed to be great with n=2; they're designed to get your predictions to go from something like 60% correct to 70-75% correct.
Click to expand...

Man, this is kinda off topic, but you just hit the nail on the head re: my problem with generalized predictive analyses and football. The networks love to throw predictive stats on the screen during pro and college games talking about how you should go for it on 4th down or go for 2 in this situation, and they never take into account the context of the game. The teams, the time of the game, the weather, etc. Like, if you're playing Iowa, it's in the 4th quarter, you're up by 4, playing in the snow, going for it on 4th and 4 from their 40 yard line is way different than if you're playing Baylor, it's the 2nd quarter, you're down 14, and you're in a dome.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
If the committee leaves FSU out they will use this last bullet of point as their main justification

View attachment 67636
Click to expand...

Yeah, I just saw that.

FSU's ****ed and that's why.

The only way they get past that is if the committee decides that Rodemaker is not that much worse than Travis and they figure he will be back for a playoff game.


BTW though - I'm amazed at how many people on social media don't realize that Glenn would not be FSU's QB in a playoff game.
 
I think it’s absolutely brutal that Georgia’s three peat bid is probably dead because they lost for the first time in an eternity. They were in the fact same position in 2021 but got in because the chips fell differently elsewhere.

It’s a weird system.
 
CUwhit21 said:
Current rankings should matter more than rankings at the time two teams played. Alabama has 4 wins over teams in the CFP. Texas has 3.
Click to expand...

Rankings at the time of the game are absolute dog****. We were ranked this season at one point largely because we beat a team that was good last season. It’s idiotic.
 
Alfred91 said:
Yeah, I just saw that.

FSU's ****ed and that's why.

The only way they get past that is if the committee decides that Rodemaker is not that much worse than Travis and they figure he will be back for a playoff game.


BTW though - I'm amazed at how many people on social media don't realize that Glenn would not be FSU's QB in a playoff game.
Click to expand...
They can power rate with and without Rodemaker.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top