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Official CU Resume & Bubble Watch 2021-22

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member

It's that time again. Here's how the teams are selected for the Dance:​

Selection Criteria​

The NCAA Evaluation Tool, known as the NET, is in its second year of existence and is one of many factors used by NCAA sports committees when evaluating team selection, seeding and bracketing.

The components of the NET include the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors game location, the opponent and outcome, as well as net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and a capped scoring margin.

Other criteria the committee considers in the selections process:

  • An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings.
  • Complete box scores and results.
  • Head-to-head results and results versus common opponents.
  • Imbalanced conference schedules and results.
  • Overall and nonconference strength of schedule.
  • The quality of wins and losses.
  • Road record.
  • Player and coach availability.
  • Various computer metrics.

Team Sheets​

The committee often refers to "team sheets" when comparing team performance. The team sheets contain in-depth team information about strength of schedule, performance against teams sorted by quadrants and results.

Starting with the 2017-18 season, the team sheets took on a new look. They now not only include each team’s NET, but also include a team’s ranking in five other metrics: the ESPN strength of record and BPI rankings, as well as the KPI, KenPom and Sagarin rankings. In addition, a team’s schedule and results are now broken down in four quadrants that place greater emphasis on games played on neutral courts and in true road environments. The quadrant breakdown is as follows:

  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.
********************************
Useful Links:

NET Rating: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
ESPN BPI (w/ SOR): https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
KPI: https://faktorsports.com/#/
KenPom: https://kenpom.com
Sagarin: http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
Bracketology (matrix of all of them): http://www.bracketmatrix.com
 
Instead of trying to create and update a spreadsheet every week, I'm going to see about going to the Buffs Team Sheet & dropping a weekly screen shot.

Right now, we're a little early for the data to mean anything (even if posted). fwiw, KenPom has us at #48 at the moment and that's probably the one I trust the most to give an accurate representation of team strength.

Here's where the Buffs were on NET with our Quad 1-4 resume at the end of last season going into Selection Sunday.
Screen Shot 2021-11-14 at 7.46.15 PM.png
 
Through December 13th games, here's how we look on NET:

Colorado: #120
Screen Shot 2021-12-14 at 8.17.23 AM.png

Opponents
Montana State (W): 121
New Mexico (W): 161
Maine (W): 358
Southern Illinois (L): 165
Duquesne (W): 262
Brown (W): 144
Stanford (W): 152
UCLA (L): 22
Tennessee (L): 10
Eastern Washington (W): 156
Milwaukee (W): 330
CSU-Bakersfield: 219
Kansas: 5
Oregon: 123
Oregon State: 263
Washington State: 43
Washington: 222
Arizona: 1
Arizona State: 179
USC: 14
UCLA: 22
Washington: 222
Washington State: 43
Oregon: 123
Oregon State: 263
Utah: 63
Cal: 128
Stanford: 152
Arizona State: 179
Arizona: 1
Utah: 63

Clearly, our Buffs need to bank some quality wins. It's going to be tough to find in the Pac-12, outside of Quad 2. We also desperately need some teams to improve their resumes, pushing some of those Quad 4 opponents into Quad 3 & some Quad 3 into Quad 2.
 
Buffnik said:
Through December 13th games, here's how we look on NET:

Colorado: #120
View attachment 48657

Opponents
Montana State (W): 121
New Mexico (W): 161
Maine (W): 358
Southern Illinois (L): 165
Duquesne (W): 262
Brown (W): 144
Stanford (W): 152
UCLA (L): 22
Tennessee (L): 10
Eastern Washington (W): 156
Milwaukee (W): 330
CSU-Bakersfield: 219
Kansas: 5
Oregon: 123
Oregon State: 263
Washington State: 43
Washington: 222
Arizona: 1
Arizona State: 179
USC: 14
UCLA: 22
Washington: 222
Washington State: 43
Oregon: 123
Oregon State: 263
Utah: 63
Cal: 128
Stanford: 152
Arizona State: 179
Arizona: 1
Utah: 63

Clearly, our Buffs need to bank some quality wins. It's going to be tough to find in the Pac-12, outside of Quad 2. We also desperately need some teams to improve their resumes, pushing some of those Quad 4 opponents into Quad 3 & some Quad 3 into Quad 2.
Click to expand...
I think they can get in the NCAA tourney, but they have to grow up quick. Thing is, these guys have to start picking up their game early, yes you Jabari. Play that way from tip. Perimeter guys, be shot ready, teams are packing the paint. Don't be scared to miss a few, pull the trigger. I doubt Tad will get pissed as long as they are good shots.
 
BuffLuke80 said:
I think they can get in the NCAA tourney, but they have to grow up quick. Thing is, these guys have to start picking up their game early, yes you Jabari. Play that way from tip. Perimeter guys, be shot ready, teams are packing the paint. Don't be scared to miss a few, pull the trigger. I doubt Tad will get pissed as long as they are good shots.
Click to expand...

We need to win 2 or 3 where we will be pretty big underdogs to get to the tournament--could happen, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
BuffsNYC said:
We need to win 2 or 3 where we will be pretty big underdogs to get to the tournament--could happen, but I'm not holding my breath.
Click to expand...
Assuming we aren't going to continue to show 25% from 3 and that is just random variation, what we need is one of the point guards to figure their **** out, especially on defense. It's getting us killed.
 
Darth Snow said:
Assuming we aren't going to continue to show 25% from 3 and that is just random variation, what we need is one of the point guards to figure their **** out, especially on defense. It's getting us killed.
Click to expand...

Defense was pretty good last game and I expect it to remain that way--that's why we pay Tad. It won't be enough to win against the upper half of the Pac on the road or to beat USC, UCLA, or Arizona at home.

I don't put it all on the PGs. Jabari and Tristan should be more consistent scorers--both should be well over .300 on 3-pointers and should be more aggressively looking for their chances in the paint.
 
BuffsNYC said:
Defense was pretty good last game and I expect it to remain that way--that's why we pay Tad. It won't be enough to win against the upper half of the Pac on the road or to beat USC, UCLA, or Arizona at home.

I don't put it all on the PGs. Jabari and Tristan should be more consistent scorers--both should be well over .300 on 3-pointers and should be more aggressively looking for their chances in the paint.
Click to expand...
the 3 point shooting is team wide outside of Battey. I wasn't suggesting the scoring was the main issue with the guards.

The guard defense has been subpar as they velcro to screens. Mostly the PGs, but also even Eli hasn't been himself. It's not good when your starting PG is unplayable in the last two minutes against non power teams. Our PG position has consistently been outplayed.
 
Darth Snow said:
the 3 point shooting is team wide outside of Battey. I wasn't suggesting the scoring was the main issue with the guards.

The guard defense has been subpar as they velcro to screens. Mostly the PGs, but also even Eli hasn't been himself. It's not good when your starting PG is unplayable in the last two minutes against non power teams. Our PG position has consistently been outplayed.
Click to expand...

I'm just saying the guards' defense was much better during the last game, but even if it remains decent it won't win us the more difficult games on the schedule.
 
BuffsNYC said:
I'm just saying the guards' defense was much better during the last game, but even if it remains decent it won't win us the more difficult games on the schedule.
Click to expand...
well yea. That's why my caveat about the 3 point shooting was in there. Every game is going to be a dog fight if we shoot that badly.
 
I will say the nice thing is we could very easily start conference play 3-1 or 4-0 which would be great momentum!
 
Buffsbball said:
Woops! The early conference games in the middle of non-conference always throw me off! 5-1 or 4-2 are definitely attainable starts though!
Click to expand...
Basically the next 4 with the oregon schools and washington schools are winnable! Nice we get Oregon while they are still down!
 
Buffnik said:
If they could somehow get their NET to the top 100, it goes into Quad 2 and stops looking so bad. Unlikely.
Click to expand...
The only way I see that happening is if they upset Loyola Chicago...Twice.

That game may end up being the one that seals our tourney fate this year.
 
Yeah, guys. I'm not gonna say that we need to beat Kansas, but it sure would flip the script and put us where we need to be heading into the conference schedule.
 
Buffnik said:
Yeah, guys. I'm not gonna say that we need to beat Kansas, but it sure would flip the script and put us where we need to be heading into the conference schedule.
Click to expand...
To infuse some optimism I think we match up well with Kansas. (famous last words, especially after they just beat Mizzou by 40). Battey can guard McCormick. Eli on Agbaji, we always own Remy, that leaves Christian Braun. So basically if we can bottle up Braun have the CEC rocking, and make a few 3's it can be close!
 
Looking forward to CU being on the bubble a month from now and rooting against other bubble teams.
 
#91 this morning.

If we get a home split against the LA schools next week, we're solidly in the Bubble conversation.

Sweep and we're on the right side of the line and in position to win the Pac-12 regular season title.

Get swept and we're in a monster hole.

So... kind of a big week.
 
Buffnik said:
#91 this morning.

If we get a home split against the LA schools next week, we're solidly in the Bubble conversation.

Sweep and we're on the right side of the line and in position to win the Pac-12 regular season title.

Get swept and we're in a monster hole.

So... kind of a big week.
Click to expand...

Yup, after this week there won't be many resume building opportunities outside of UofA at home, and maybe the 2 Oregon games and the roadie at Wazzou.

The Southern Illinois loss will bite hard come March.
 
Buffnik said:
#91 this morning.

If we get a home split against the LA schools next week, we're solidly in the Bubble conversation.

Sweep and we're on the right side of the line and in position to win the Pac-12 regular season title.

Get swept and we're in a monster hole.

So... kind of a big week.
Click to expand...
I'm calling it now. Tad OWNS andy. Buffs hammer USC on Thursday then upset UCLA Saturday. That second game of the mountain trip is tough. UCLA doesn't tip against Utah until 9:00PM Mtn. Not a lot of rest for them. Go Buffs.
 
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