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Official RPI Watch 2014-15
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
did you mean west to east?
I'm worried enough for San Francisco. I can't believe you of all people is looking and stressing ahead. :lol:
Yeah. We should beat USF, but if we play offense like we have in our bad stretches this year, we could be in trouble.
That goes without saying. But I expect a win there.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
Yes.
jcatcher
Club Member
Our bad offense really consists of one game out of five, and it could be argued only one half of one game. If you throw out Wyoming, we are averaging 76 ppg, which would be a Tad Boyle era high. Even including Wyoming, we are shooting 45% from the field, 74% from the line, and 35% from three, all perfectly respectable numbers for a team. Defense is the problem.
Our strength of schedule per KenPom so far is 262 - not good, but better than Kentucky, Duke, Louisville, and Virginia so far. Also Villanova.
jcatcher
Club Member
Interesting that KenPom has our defensive efficiency ranked as the 42nd best in the country, which is outstanding. The glaring weakness is in defensive turnovers, where we rank 342nd, pretty much dead last in the country. We turnover opponents on 14.6% of their possessions, compared to the national average of 20.2%.
The issue is that when the defense shows up it is elite. Like, deep run in the Dance elite. But too often we've seen long stretches of disinterested basketball on the defensive end. The last 3 2nd halves, it's been like they didn't feel like defending.
jcatcher
Club Member
I agree with that, which was why I was surprised to see CU at 42.
jwhite17
Member
Totally.
When we are focused, we have an excellent defense with terrific length, quickness, shotblocking, etc, probably one of the best ones in the country.
IMO, we should be trying to get more opponents to drive the rack against us than shoot threes because Scott and Gordon are both excellent shotblockers that don't foul much.
Unfortunately, we still have some bad habits of playing up or down the competition (minus the second half of the Wyoming game). We have seen when we are locked in we can go on a 22-0/25-0 run and totally dominant (Air Force and Auburn), and we have seen the other side of getting beat by Air Force and Limpsomb in the second half.
Also, another huge factor is the lack of student attendance at both Air Force and Limpsomb games. I feel like our team plays so much better when we have a packed house or a lot of students. Look at the Auburn game. We just played lights out in the second half of the game, and I believe our students really help give our team a boost. I expect those types of performances once the students start showing up again.
jcatcher
Club Member
Which is why it sucks that we drew UCLA at home for the first conference game. If it were only the Oregon or Washington schools coming in that weekend, and we could play UCLA in front of a jammed arena.
jwhite17
Member
Gotcha buffnik. That explains it.
As for UCLA, we should beat them this year even with a sparse student section. No more Wear twins. No more Kyle ANdeson. No more Adams. No more Levine. They aren't nearly as good as last year, and we matchup much better this time around. We need to beat them. They have owned us in bball since we have been in the Pac12. We need to get that monkey off our back.
As for UCLA, we should beat them this year even with a sparse student section. No more Wear twins. No more Kyle ANdeson. No more Adams. No more Levine. They aren't nearly as good as last year, and we matchup much better this time around. We need to beat them. They have owned us in bball since we have been in the Pac12. We need to get that monkey off our back.
jgisland
Club Member
I binge re-watched the games the other night (which I highly recommend if you're bored and your wife is watching garbage reality TV in another room). But it also reveals a lot when you watch a bunch of games in a row, and it did, the defense I found......concerning. As @jcatcher pointed out KenPom has our defense pretty solid, clearly I love stats, but they aren't telling the whole story here. As [MENTION=1979]tante[/MENTION] alluded to, Tad's teams have never created a lot of TO's, it's just not the way his defensive schemes are made up. They don't go after steals nor create many TO's because they play straight man to man defense and don't gamble. What we're seeing this year are guards going after steals - and not getting them taking themselves out of the play and subsequently creating 5 on 4 opportunities for the offense. We're also seeing the guards getting beat off the dribble but still staying with them moving laterally then letting them go and trying to strip from behind. These are two things we've hardly ever seen, both of these things create more work and issues for the interior defenders. They've got to defend 4 on 5 or leave their man to cut off a guy driving the lane. The front court is also doing something we haven't seen, go for blocks....Blocks can be good and bad (@goose is nodding and pointing at Birdman), but we're seeing a lot of guys leave their feet, which generally isn't a great defensive tactic.
The defensive #'s certainly aren't bad, but some of the defensive principles of the team do show some signs of concern.
The defensive #'s certainly aren't bad, but some of the defensive principles of the team do show some signs of concern.
jcatcher
Club Member
I agree that Tad doesn't stress creating turnovers, but the worst it's been with Tad before this year is 17.8 last year, but the national average was only 18.3, probably due the refs emphasis on calling handchecks and reach-ins especially early in the season. We were 210th in the nation, slightly below average. This year is a huge difference, not a trivial one.
Georgia up by 14 over Chattanooga
Games is on Watch ESPN
Games is on Watch ESPN
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Georgia straight crushed Chattanooga tonight on the road
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Arizona in a battle with Gardner Webb, 49-46, 14 min left.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Opened up a lead as we knew they would, but this isn't the first time they've been caught snoozing
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wyoming took care of Denver 68-42. Let's see how they fare in their first road game: SMU.
Let's hope they win.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
FTFY
We're not playing DU. We scrimmaged them. Maybe what you're thinking of.
*******************
Also, DePaul is looking solid. They just beat a competent N Illinois squad by 11.
Wednesday games we care about (other than CU hosting San Francisco at 8pm, PACN):
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech. 4pm. Good opportunity for the Lips to get a road win & the accompanying RPI bump.
ASU hosts UNLV. 6pm, PACN. Rebels kind of suck this year, so there's a chance.
Auburn @ Texas Tech. 7pm, SECN. TTU should have lost to AFA. Auburn needs this road win and it's there for the taking.
CSU hosts UTEP. 7pm. Tough one for the Rams. Would be a solid win.
Air Force hosts Grambling. 7pm. This is one the Zoomies should get and need to get.
Washington State hosts Idaho. 8pm, PACN. Hard to trust Wazzu, but they should win this game.
Cal hosts Montana. 8pm, PACN. Montana can put a scare into a team, but this should be all Cal.
USC hosts Loyola Marymount. 8pm, PACN. Hard to trust Troy, but they should win this game.
Oregon hosts Concordia. 8pm, PACN. Not a D1 opponent, so the win is meaningless.
#25 Utah hosts #8 Wichita State. 9pm, ESPN2. Game of the night. It's better for CU's RPI if the Utes win.
UCLA hosts CS Fullerton. 10pm, PACN. UCLA should roll.
Oregon State hosts Miss Valley State. 10pm, PACN. I won't say this often... Beavers should win easily.
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech. 4pm. Good opportunity for the Lips to get a road win & the accompanying RPI bump.
ASU hosts UNLV. 6pm, PACN. Rebels kind of suck this year, so there's a chance.
Auburn @ Texas Tech. 7pm, SECN. TTU should have lost to AFA. Auburn needs this road win and it's there for the taking.
CSU hosts UTEP. 7pm. Tough one for the Rams. Would be a solid win.
Air Force hosts Grambling. 7pm. This is one the Zoomies should get and need to get.
Washington State hosts Idaho. 8pm, PACN. Hard to trust Wazzu, but they should win this game.
Cal hosts Montana. 8pm, PACN. Montana can put a scare into a team, but this should be all Cal.
USC hosts Loyola Marymount. 8pm, PACN. Hard to trust Troy, but they should win this game.
Oregon hosts Concordia. 8pm, PACN. Not a D1 opponent, so the win is meaningless.
#25 Utah hosts #8 Wichita State. 9pm, ESPN2. Game of the night. It's better for CU's RPI if the Utes win.
UCLA hosts CS Fullerton. 10pm, PACN. UCLA should roll.
Oregon State hosts Miss Valley State. 10pm, PACN. I won't say this often... Beavers should win easily.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Outside of the obvious Buffs game and Utah/Wichita St game I'll be looking at these two:
We need Auburn to win in Lubbock. Auburn is the better team, IMO. TT is favored by 7.5, seems way too high, but TT's win @ LSU is probably swaying it.
ASU hosting UNLV. As a disclaimer, ASU can eat **** and lose every game and I wouldn't mind. UNLV is coached by a clown but they'll win their share of games this year. UNLV is nothing special, but ASU winning this would help keep their RPI reasonable. ASU is actually favored by 5.