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Official RPI Watch 2014-15

Stanford beating up on Delaware, no surprise

and USC only up 2 on CS-Fullerton late. Also, sadly, no surprise.
 
CVilleBuff said:
USC scrapes out a 53-49 win over Fullerton. Good lord, USC is awful though.
Click to expand...

With the bottom third of the Pac-12 this year, all I'm hoping for is that they can somehow all find their way into the Top 199 of RPI. Fortunately for CU's resume, we only get OSU and WSU once apiece. That's not great for our positioning in the conference standings, but Utah is at least in the same boat.
 
Wednesday: Huge day for the Pac with Arizona and UCLA playing big time games.

#22 UCLA (4-0) vs Oklahoma (2-1) (Nassau, Bahamas): Big test for UCLA. Oklahoma is no slouch, they lost their own top 25 ranking after blowing a lead and losing by 2 at now-ranked Creighton. In fact, the Sooners are favored by 3.5 in this one. One of those key OOC match ups the Pac needs to win to have some credibility.

Hawaii (5-2) vs East Carolina (3-2) (Estero, FL): Highly unlikely we face Hawaii at the Diamond Head and anything they do out Florida won't match what they are back on the Islands where they've already defeated Pittsburgh this year. Figured I'd gave an update though.

San Francisco (3-1) vs Evansville (3-1) (Estero, FL): San Fran lost in a de-facto road game to a solid FGCU team on Tuesday. This is a key game for them against a decent Evansville team. A San Fran win would help bolster them as a halfway decent opponent (and win) for CU. Of note, San Fran was gets shots off very quickly. They were #1 nationally heading into tonight and that seems to be a trend with them.

George Washington (2-1) vs Longwood (2-3): GW should roll here. GW is solid and scrappy, though. They led at UVA at halftime before the Hoos put them away by 17. GW isn't good from outside, although Watanabe is dangerous to sneak outside and hurt you. Scott and Kevin Larsen will be a battle, but Josh is better. We're going to play these guys in Hawaii, I'm almost certain. It's a huge game for us to get an OOC win over a Big Dance caliber squad. I like how we match up.

DePaul (2-0) vs Lehigh (0-4): With DePaul, it's about not picking up horrible losses and keeping the RPI above 200. DePaul should win here, but like Wazzu or USC in the Pac, you never know when they may **** up next.

Utah (2-1) vs Texas Pan-American (3-0): Start of a 3 game cupcake stretch for the Utes before a brutal 3 game stretch of Wichita St, @ BYU, @ Kansas.

Wyoming (4-0) vs Stetson (2-3): More cannon fodder to pad Wyoming's record. Stetson hasn't defeated a D1 opponent yet.

Oregon State (3-1) vs Auburn (2-2) (Las Vegas, NV): Unfortunately we did get a road game in Corvallis this year, but I guess we still want the Beavs here since we could meet them a 2nd time in the Pac tournament and we don't want the Pac looking like crap. I'm curious about how this one ends up. Auburn should win on paper, IMO, but Oregon State has shown early signs of perhaps being a *little* better than expected.

Georgia (3-1) vs #10 Gonzaga (4-0) (New York, NY): Gonzaga has just been destroying everything in their path so far, including dismantling an SMU squad that was ranked at the time and beating St. Joseph's by 52. However, this is their first game away from The Kennel. Georgia has looked mediocre so far. Hard to see how Gonzaga doesn't pull away in this one and win by double digits. This could end up being Few's best team yet, but it's obviously way too early to know.

#3 Arizona (5-0) vs #15 San Diego State (5-0) (Maui, HI): One of the biggest Pac OOC games of the season. Arizona was shaky against a halfway decent unranked Kansas State squad on Tuesday, only winning 72-68. SDSU is the darling of the MWC this year. The one clear top 25 level team in that conference. SDSU is already battle-tested: they've defeated Utah, BYU and beat Pitt with ease by 17 on Tuesday. If Arizona plays like they did against KState, they'll lose. However, we know big regular season games often bring out Arizona's best.

Cal (3-1) vs Cal-Poly (2-1): Cal should win comfortably unless they're suffering a post-NYC hangover from facing big programs.

Colorado State (3-0) vs Missouri State (2-1) (Anchorage, AK): Rams should win, but Missouri State is one of those MVC programs that is not a pushover. On a neutral court, this is not a "gimme" for CSU but they do have the edge.
 
CVilleBuff said:
USC scrapes out a 53-49 win over Fullerton. Good lord, USC is awful though.
Click to expand...

Gotta admit, I didn't see this coming. I didn't think they'd be good, but I thought they'd at least be a level above OSU, WSU & ASU.
 
GW ate its cupcake.

DePaul needs to wake up. Down 9 with 11 minutes left. You absolutely can't drop a home game against a winless Lehigh*.

*Lehigh, fwiw, has one of the most gorgeous campuses in the nation.
 
Buffnik said:
Also, UCLA had this game under control about midway through the 2nd half. Then they stopped playing defense.
Click to expand...

Kevon Looney is an absolute beast. 16 and 15 today for the Bruins. His game line for his college career so far:

20-9 vs. Montana State
17-14 vs, Coastal Carolina
12-14 vs, Nicholls State
10-11 vs. Long Beach State
16-15 vs. Oklahoma

Josh and Wes are going to have their hands full with this guy.

I sure wish Wisconsin had got him. He's from Milwaukee.
 
DePaul down 10 to 0-4 Lehigh late. Lehigh has been leading by double digits throughout. This is one godawful DePaul squad we'll be facing in Hawaii, but in a way it's good because it helps ensure those key match ups against quality opponents we so badly need.
 
Wyoming beat Stetson.

Auburn beat Oregon State.

Georgia is hanging vs Gonzaga (down single digits in 2nd).

Cal by 5 on Cal Poly in the 2nd (15 minutes left).

Arizona and SDSU in a tight one in Maui. Zona by 1 with 2 minutes left in the 1st.
 
Georgia falls by 12 to #10 Gonzaga. Georgia faces Minnesota next, that'll be a good indicator of where they're at
 
CVilleBuff said:
Georgia falls by 12 to #10 Gonzaga. Georgia faces Minnesota next, that'll be a good indicator of where they're at
Click to expand...

In that game, some dude for Georgia kicked Perkins in the face while flying at him after a pump fake. Very sketchy on whether that was in any way a basketball play (but no flagrant called). Perkins went to the locker room with blood in his mouth. Preliminary word is that he may have a broken jaw.
 
Buffnik said:
In that game, some dude for Georgia kicked Perkins in the face while flying at him after a pump fake. Very sketchy on whether that was in any way a basketball play (but no flagrant called). Perkins went to the locker room with blood in his mouth. Preliminary word is that he may have a broken jaw.
Click to expand...

I'll have to check the replay. Sketchy.

Btw, I'm hating our 10am MST start time in Athens. Worries me a lot.
 
SDSU had to play a 2OT game 48 hours ago in addition to last night's game. They're exhausted. Arizona going to pull out another close OOC win.
 
Arizona wins 61-59. Credit to UofA for winning, but they're by no means invincible right now winning by 2 tonight and beating a mediocre 3-3 KState squad by 4 last night.

Gonzaga's upcoming visit to Tucson on Dec. 6 will be very interesting.

Arizona is the class of the Pac, but they'll drop a few on the road as always. And forget about teams like Kentucky and Duke, they're on a completely different level right now. Zona is in there in the next tier with teams like Louisville and Virginia, IMO.
 
SDSU was better than Arizona tonight. Where that fatigue really showed up was in FT shooting.

Arizona was a ridiculous 20/24 while SDSU was a horrendous 13/24. 7 point swing in a 2 point game.
 
Thanksgiving Day games:

#22 UCLA (4-1) vs #5 North Carolina (3-1) (Nassau, Bahamas): Everyone was hoping to see this game at Atlantis, but no one saw this coming as one of the consolation games. Butler dominated Carolina in the second half, while Oklahoma did the same to UCLA. This is obviously a key game for Pac reputation. UCLA disappointed today losing to Oklahoma. They can make up for it with a win over the Tar Heels.

Washington (3-0) vs San Jose State (1-3) (Fullerton, CA): SJSU is the worst team in the MWC and has a postseason ban for low APR. Huskies should win comfortably. Huskies still haven't faced a real opponent, so they remain a mystery.

Washington State (1-2) vs UC Santa Barbara (1-2) (Anchorage, AK): UCSB is up there with UC-Irvine as the top teams in the Big West. UCSB played Kansas tough in Lawrence, being within 3 in the middle of the second half. Meanwhile, Wazzu has looked nothing short of atrocious. Worst team in the Pac this season (although USC is giving them a run for their money). UCSB is favored by 7 and a Wazzu win would be pretty surprising, sad as it is. Wazzu and USC are looking like the type of teams we face and our RPI drops...
 
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Bad tournament for UCLA and the Pac. UNC is just better than UCLA, so no surprise, but this is quickly turning into another year of the Pac not proving itself head to head against power conference teams.
 
Washington taking care of San Jose State in Fullerton. Huskies will face Long Beach State on Friday, this will be the toughest test thus far for Washington. LBSU has defeated Kansas State and hung around with UCLA already this season. This could be a close one.

Wazzu just underway against UCSB in Alaska. Wazzu is the underdog, sadly.
 
Wazzu being completely humiliated by UCSB. 34-12 Gauchos at half. Cougs will fall to 1-3 with this loss and will face 1-3 Rice tomorrow.

It's clear to me at this point that Wazzu is the worst in the Pac. USC has been abysmal, but Wazzu's ineptitude goes even deeper. Oregon State is dueling for 10th/11th with USC. Arizona State is bad, but they're a notch above this bottom 3.
 
Friday:

Georgia (3-2) vs Minnesota (3-2) (New York, NY): This is probably the best indicator we'll receive of where Georgia stands before our trip to Athens. The Dawgs were expected to push for a Big Dance bid. However, they started the season with a 10 point loss at lower-level ACC squad Georgia Tech, took care of 3 cupcakes, and Gonzaga beat them with relative ease. Minnesota, meanwhile, was projected 6th in the B1G. They opened the season with a loss to a top 10 Louisville side, beat 3 cupcakes, and then fell to St. John's. Long story short, both of these teams have taken near identical paths this season. These are two teams who stand a good chance of a nervous Selection Sunday and this may be one of those November games that has immense importance. For Georgia especially, there is a need for decent OOC wins because SEC play won't allow for many resume boosters.

Nebraska (3-1) vs UT-Martin (3-1): Cannon fodder for the Corn as they continue to recover from their loss at Rhode Island last weekend which cost them their top 25 ranking. OOC gets considerably more difficult after this with @ Florida State, #23 Creighton, Cincinnati and the Diamond Head Classic (which involves a probable meeting with #9 Wichita State and possibly our Buffs) all looming.

Northern Colorado (2-2) vs Stetson (2-4): Northern Colorado played Wyoming far closer than Stetson did and this is the 3rd game of a MST road swing for Stetson. Need Northern to get this W over a weak Stetson side (picked last in Atlantic Sun).

Colorado State (4-0) vs Pacific (3-2) (Anchorage, AK): Great Alaska Shootout is a pathetically weak field. Rams should win comfortably, but Pacific did only lose to Washington by 7. Pacific is picked last in the WCC though, so we're not exactly talking quality. CSU's OOC schedule is embarrassingly weak. CU is the only power conference team they face.

Utah (3-1) vs North Dakota (2-2): Another cupcake for Utah as they get close to a brutal stretch of #9 Wichita St, @ BYU, @ #11 Kansas.

#22 UCLA (4-2) vs UAB (2-4) (Nassau, Bahamas): Enjoy the final days of the ranking next to your name, UCLA. Atlantis has been a huge disappointment for the Bruins with a 10 point loss to Oklahoma and a 22 point loss to North Carolina. Now it's just about getting a consolation win against a poor UAB side.

Washington (4-0) vs Long Beach State (3-3) (Fullerton, CA): Dangerous game for Washington. LBSU is battle-tested having already defeated Kansas State by 9, hung tough @ UCLA, and lost in the final seconds @ BYU. Washington hasn't faced real competition yet and this LBSU squad playing very close to home could spell trouble for the Huskies.

Washington State (1-3) vs Rice (1-3) (Anchorage, AK): Cougs are coming off a 28 point loss to UCSB. It's just a complete train wreck of a team. Rice is awful themselves, but Wazzu may very well lose again. It's unreal how bad this Wazzu side is.
 
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Utah took care of lowly North Dakota by 37

And unless something completely unforeseen occurs, UCLA should win against UAB. Bruins up 16 in second half.

HOWEVER

Washington trails a tough LBSU squad by 6 late in the first half.
 
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