This is by far the most logical explanation regarding Snyder's statement
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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable
- Thread starter Duff Man
- Start date
This is by far the most logical explanation regarding Snyder's statement
My head is in Texas. I posted the data earlier to support that and have more below.
My heart is having a true western conference that dominates the Mountain and Pacific time zones.
How do we make that work?
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (national population ranks for Mountain & Pacific Time Zone areas in Top 100, 2015 census)
US Rank|Metro|Population|Growth 2010-15|Home Program(s)
#2|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA|13.3 million|3.99%|UCLA, USC
#11|San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA|4.7 million|7.40%|Cal, Stanford
#12|Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ|4.6 million|9.10%|Arizona State
#13|Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA|4.5 million|6.26%|UCLA, USC
#15|Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA|3.7 million|8.54%|Washington
#17|San Diego-Carlsbad, CA|3.3 million|6.60%| San Diego State
#19|Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO|2.8 million|10.65%|Colorado
#22|Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR/WA|2.4 million|7.33%|Oregon, Oregon State
#27|Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA|2.3 million|5.82%|Cal, Stanford
#29|Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV|2.1 million|8.38%| UNLV
#35|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA|2.0 million|7.62%|Cal, Stanford
#48|Salt Lake City, UT|1.2 million|7.57%|Utah, BYU
#53|Tucson, AZ|1.0 million|3.0%|Arizona
#56|Fresno, CA|975k|4.77%| Fresno State
#60|Albuquerque, NM|907k|2.28%| New Mexico
#61|Bakersfield, CA|881k|5.07%| Fresno State
#66|Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA|851k|3.31%|UCLA, USC
#77|Stockton-Lodi, CA|726k|5.95%|Cal, Stanford
#80|Colorado Springs, CO|698k|8.09%|Colorado, Air Force
#81|Boise City, ID|677k|9.79%| Boise State
#87|Ogden-Clearfield, UT|643k|7.65%|Utah, BYU
#93|Provo-Orem, UT|586k|11.20%|Utah, BYU
#100|Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA|548k|3.72%|Washington State
Based on this and how the Mountain-Pacific will continue to grow, I think a strong case can be made for a Pac-14 through the addition of San Diego State and UNLV. A secondary case can be made for New Mexico and Boise State if a Pac-16 becomes the plan. (Or even looking to BYU instead of Boise State if that became politically viable.)
You still have some Mountain-Pacific schools that will draw some eyeballs away. BYU, Fresno State, Nevada-Reno, Gonzaga in basketball, others like SJSU, Utah State, CSU & AFA. But not enough to make any more dent in the region than the rest of the country where G5 football conferences and D1 basketball conference challenge for much more of the local attention in their markets. In fact, these moves would absolutely cut the MWC off at the knees for media and recruiting bases while removing its only Top 100 media markets outside of the shares that Fresno State & San Jose State grab.
Is this do-able if they have a long path to equal media revenue shares? Possibly.
***************************
Now the Texas stuff for reference (and why it's so damn desirable to expand there).
What's in the Central time zone that is west of the Mississippi?
Basically, we have 2 columns of states. Western one is ND-SD-NE-KS-OK-TX. Eastern one is MN-IA-MO-AR-LA. It's a stretch on the geography, but we could look to that western column of states for Pac-12 expansion. Here are the Metros in the Top 100 from those groups (plus Hawaii).
US Rank|Metro|Population|Growth 2010-15|Home Program(s)
#4|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX|7.1 million|10.53%|TCU, SMU, Mix of TX & OU
#5|Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX|6.7 million|12.44%|aTm, UH, Rice, Mix of TX
#25|San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX|2.4 million|11.27%|UT, UTSA, Mix of TX
#30|Kansas City, MO/KS|2.1 million|3.89%|KU, KSU, MU
#33|Austin-Round Rock, TX|2.0 million|16.58%|UT, Mix of TX
#41|Oklahoma City, OK|1.4 million|8.42%|OU, OSU
#54|Urban Honolulu, HI|999k|4.77%|Hawaii
#55|Tulsa, OK|981k|4.64%|OU, OSU
#59|Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE/IA|915k|5.77%|Nebraska
#67|McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX|842k|8.72%|Mix of Tex
#68|El Paso, TX|639k|4.33%|TTU, UTEP, NMSU, UNM
#86|Wichita, KS|645k|2.17%|KU, KSU, OSU, OU
My heart is having a true western conference that dominates the Mountain and Pacific time zones.
How do we make that work?
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (national population ranks for Mountain & Pacific Time Zone areas in Top 100, 2015 census)
US Rank|Metro|Population|Growth 2010-15|Home Program(s)
#2|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA|13.3 million|3.99%|UCLA, USC
#11|San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA|4.7 million|7.40%|Cal, Stanford
#12|Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ|4.6 million|9.10%|Arizona State
#13|Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA|4.5 million|6.26%|UCLA, USC
#15|Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA|3.7 million|8.54%|Washington
#17|San Diego-Carlsbad, CA|3.3 million|6.60%| San Diego State
#19|Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO|2.8 million|10.65%|Colorado
#22|Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR/WA|2.4 million|7.33%|Oregon, Oregon State
#27|Sacramento-Roseville-Arden-Arcade, CA|2.3 million|5.82%|Cal, Stanford
#29|Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV|2.1 million|8.38%| UNLV
#35|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA|2.0 million|7.62%|Cal, Stanford
#48|Salt Lake City, UT|1.2 million|7.57%|Utah, BYU
#53|Tucson, AZ|1.0 million|3.0%|Arizona
#56|Fresno, CA|975k|4.77%| Fresno State
#60|Albuquerque, NM|907k|2.28%| New Mexico
#61|Bakersfield, CA|881k|5.07%| Fresno State
#66|Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA|851k|3.31%|UCLA, USC
#77|Stockton-Lodi, CA|726k|5.95%|Cal, Stanford
#80|Colorado Springs, CO|698k|8.09%|Colorado, Air Force
#81|Boise City, ID|677k|9.79%| Boise State
#87|Ogden-Clearfield, UT|643k|7.65%|Utah, BYU
#93|Provo-Orem, UT|586k|11.20%|Utah, BYU
#100|Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA|548k|3.72%|Washington State
Based on this and how the Mountain-Pacific will continue to grow, I think a strong case can be made for a Pac-14 through the addition of San Diego State and UNLV. A secondary case can be made for New Mexico and Boise State if a Pac-16 becomes the plan. (Or even looking to BYU instead of Boise State if that became politically viable.)
You still have some Mountain-Pacific schools that will draw some eyeballs away. BYU, Fresno State, Nevada-Reno, Gonzaga in basketball, others like SJSU, Utah State, CSU & AFA. But not enough to make any more dent in the region than the rest of the country where G5 football conferences and D1 basketball conference challenge for much more of the local attention in their markets. In fact, these moves would absolutely cut the MWC off at the knees for media and recruiting bases while removing its only Top 100 media markets outside of the shares that Fresno State & San Jose State grab.
Is this do-able if they have a long path to equal media revenue shares? Possibly.
***************************
Now the Texas stuff for reference (and why it's so damn desirable to expand there).
What's in the Central time zone that is west of the Mississippi?
Basically, we have 2 columns of states. Western one is ND-SD-NE-KS-OK-TX. Eastern one is MN-IA-MO-AR-LA. It's a stretch on the geography, but we could look to that western column of states for Pac-12 expansion. Here are the Metros in the Top 100 from those groups (plus Hawaii).
US Rank|Metro|Population|Growth 2010-15|Home Program(s)
#4|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX|7.1 million|10.53%|TCU, SMU, Mix of TX & OU
#5|Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX|6.7 million|12.44%|aTm, UH, Rice, Mix of TX
#25|San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX|2.4 million|11.27%|UT, UTSA, Mix of TX
#30|Kansas City, MO/KS|2.1 million|3.89%|KU, KSU, MU
#33|Austin-Round Rock, TX|2.0 million|16.58%|UT, Mix of TX
#41|Oklahoma City, OK|1.4 million|8.42%|OU, OSU
#54|Urban Honolulu, HI|999k|4.77%|Hawaii
#55|Tulsa, OK|981k|4.64%|OU, OSU
#59|Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE/IA|915k|5.77%|Nebraska
#67|McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX|842k|8.72%|Mix of Tex
#68|El Paso, TX|639k|4.33%|TTU, UTEP, NMSU, UNM
#86|Wichita, KS|645k|2.17%|KU, KSU, OSU, OU
Last edited:
DeNiro
My Dixie Wrecked
Where is Colorado Springs?
DeNiro
My Dixie Wrecked
Keep reading, you have it a bit west.
I just don't see San Diego State or UNLV, they don't add anything we don't already have. They arent going yo move the needle for a new tv deal.
If they want TV market, they go Dallas (TCU) and Houston and to add prestige then they go Oklahoma and Texas or Kansas. Texas gives you both, but they have so much baggage, I would rather take Kansas. Dallas and Houston balloons your TV market and Oklahoma and Kansas (or Texas) give you fans who are willing to pay for the Pac16 network to increase distribution.
I think California alone might equal the majority of the big10 in terms of population. Throw in Texas and it is not even close, but if the new Big10 media deal taught us anything it us that a smaller active fan base is more valuable than a larger potential fan base.
If they want TV market, they go Dallas (TCU) and Houston and to add prestige then they go Oklahoma and Texas or Kansas. Texas gives you both, but they have so much baggage, I would rather take Kansas. Dallas and Houston balloons your TV market and Oklahoma and Kansas (or Texas) give you fans who are willing to pay for the Pac16 network to increase distribution.
I think California alone might equal the majority of the big10 in terms of population. Throw in Texas and it is not even close, but if the new Big10 media deal taught us anything it us that a smaller active fan base is more valuable than a larger potential fan base.
From a selfish standpoint I would love to add KU and OU as it makes for an easy drive to away games. Plus KU adds the #31 and #69 TV markets in Kansas City and Wichita-Hutchinson. OU adds #45 and #61 in Oklahoma City and Tulsa. http://www.stationindex.com/tv/tv-markets
I have also started to notice more Buff fans around Wichita as well. Even had one kid tell me his grandfather was CU's ski coach long ago (didn't catch the kids name).
I have also started to notice more Buff fans around Wichita as well. Even had one kid tell me his grandfather was CU's ski coach long ago (didn't catch the kids name).
That's the conventional wisdom.
And if it's the case that the deal to allow Big 12 expansion was that the GOR got eliminated, this move could be the first domino in the flagship conference programs leaving.
I don't have the time to manipulate the data to get any in depth analysis, but if you want to look at TV ratings for college football games for the past several years, here you go:
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Just a quick glance shows that OU brings the ratings. The only Pac-12 match ups that competed with a premier OU match up involved Notre Dame. OU-OSU pulled more TV sets than USC-UCLA.
TCU-OU had more viewers than Cal-Stanford and USC-Oregon combined.
My only point with the above is that OU brings a lot more TV sets than their MSA market size would indicate.
Also: Texas quickly becomes an also ran in ratings when they suck.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Just a quick glance shows that OU brings the ratings. The only Pac-12 match ups that competed with a premier OU match up involved Notre Dame. OU-OSU pulled more TV sets than USC-UCLA.
TCU-OU had more viewers than Cal-Stanford and USC-Oregon combined.
My only point with the above is that OU brings a lot more TV sets than their MSA market size would indicate.
Also: Texas quickly becomes an also ran in ratings when they suck.
So basically the Big-12 would expand to 14 just to get the pro rata money through 2024 but also negotiate deals (sellers market) with these teams to take substantially less than that so the existing members get an increased amount but the new members get screwed? This sounds like it is doing to end well.
Deleted member 807
Guest
The fantasy in this thread is awesome. It's fascinating to get a view of what Colorado fans want (or don't want) when it comes to conference expansion. Once Buff Nation does agree on what we want (teams, pods, zippers), then you can pretty much count on that not happening because of Kuta's law, which states "CU can't have nice things."
No off-season is complete without a re-alignment debate. This dialog has become as predictable as a Christmas pageant. The three wise men bring gifts of Gold, Directv distribution, and assorted spices from Texas. @sackman is the inn keeper that tells Mary and Joseph to GTFO and find a stable or something.
CU is probably most like Joseph, who is the cuckold to much bigger forces. When it comes to conference equality, USC and the Bay Area schools are more equal than others by nature of their location and proximity within big TV markets.
UT insists on playing baby Jesus because they self-identify as the college football representation of God on earth. The Longhorns would be so pissed if UH gets asked by the Pac12 to play the new born King.
OU is Mary, who is an important figure, but only because she is the immaculate one who can deliver UT and the Texas market while still being an original Big 8 mortal. And after so many years under Switzer, playing a knocked up virgin is frankly the kind of makeover that program needs.
The California schools get to play the wise men. The rest of the conference schools are a mix of angels and shepherds. Okie Lite, KU, SMU, TTU, and any other B12/Fmr SWC dingleberries are basically barn animals like donkeys, camels, goats and such. Baylor is the whore that should be stoned except that UT keeps forgiving them. The SEC and B1G are Pharaoh and Ceaser's Roman legions.
Merry Offseason. Everyone!
No off-season is complete without a re-alignment debate. This dialog has become as predictable as a Christmas pageant. The three wise men bring gifts of Gold, Directv distribution, and assorted spices from Texas. @sackman is the inn keeper that tells Mary and Joseph to GTFO and find a stable or something.
CU is probably most like Joseph, who is the cuckold to much bigger forces. When it comes to conference equality, USC and the Bay Area schools are more equal than others by nature of their location and proximity within big TV markets.
UT insists on playing baby Jesus because they self-identify as the college football representation of God on earth. The Longhorns would be so pissed if UH gets asked by the Pac12 to play the new born King.
OU is Mary, who is an important figure, but only because she is the immaculate one who can deliver UT and the Texas market while still being an original Big 8 mortal. And after so many years under Switzer, playing a knocked up virgin is frankly the kind of makeover that program needs.
The California schools get to play the wise men. The rest of the conference schools are a mix of angels and shepherds. Okie Lite, KU, SMU, TTU, and any other B12/Fmr SWC dingleberries are basically barn animals like donkeys, camels, goats and such. Baylor is the whore that should be stoned except that UT keeps forgiving them. The SEC and B1G are Pharaoh and Ceaser's Roman legions.
Merry Offseason. Everyone!
Last edited by a moderator:
SuperiorBuff
Well-Known Member
My comment had absolutely nothing to do with CSU. That is my standard response to conference expansion. So, **** you!
Let the feeding frenzy begin.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/b...nsidering-expansion-candidates-224148833.html
Will be interested to see where we are when the dust settles.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/b...nsidering-expansion-candidates-224148833.html
Will be interested to see where we are when the dust settles.
If the Big 12 expands to 14, the Pac 12 will be the only 12 team P5 conference. The Pac already has the worst TV deals/network out there with the worst time zone for college football and no inroads to Texas. As Jens said yesterday, the Pac better be watching this situation closely and getting ready to expand itself. The Big 12 fiasco used to entertaining to say the least, but I'm worried about the Pac getting left behind or stuck with the undesirable G5 teams for expansion.
Exciting times
If the Big-12 expands with a bunch of G5 teams it could actually strengthen the Pac-12 because it will dilute the product of the Big-12. Even if they do expand the conference will likely fall apart in 2024 when the GOR is up. This appears to be a last money grab by the conference for the last 8 years of the contract with FOX/ESPN and has little impact long-term. Pac should still have it's eyes on Texas and OU in 2024.
New reports say that the B12 would consider adding football only schools.
This really opens up the possibility for two schools: UConn & BYU. BYU's "we don't play on Sunday" policy is no longer an issue, and UConn doesn't have to worry about the travel nightmare for non-football sports, and can stay in one of the very strong east coast basketball conferences.
One problem I haven't seen brought up with that scenario is that the non-football conferences might object to having schools with the AD revenue of a P5 football program funding the non-revenue teams with which they have to compete.
This really opens up the possibility for two schools: UConn & BYU. BYU's "we don't play on Sunday" policy is no longer an issue, and UConn doesn't have to worry about the travel nightmare for non-football sports, and can stay in one of the very strong east coast basketball conferences.
One problem I haven't seen brought up with that scenario is that the non-football conferences might object to having schools with the AD revenue of a P5 football program funding the non-revenue teams with which they have to compete.
No. It's not. But carry on with your eyes shut, plugging your ears and screaming, "I can't hear you", Sacky.
I hate to say it, but Sackman is correct here. I see no reason why conferences must have equal numbers of schools. There's no reason for the Pac to expand unless expansion creates a bigger pie--big enough to leave leftovers after the new teams get their share. The Big 12 is, and has always been, a cluster****. We all know why.
If everyone goes to 14 teams. Meh. If everyone goes to 16 teams then we might have some issues. However, as Sackman has pointed out, the only teams that wouldn't dilute the conference aren't interested.
Pac12 needs to find a way to raise revenue other than expansion.
Oh, and I want whoever negotiated the Big 12's media contracts to be my chief negotiator.
From this morning's Washington Post
"you're paying us 10 million per school, if we add 4 schools, you have to pay us 40 million more, but we're only going to give those 4 new schools 2-4 million each, and split the rest up among ourselves."
Why in hell would the B12 not do this?
From this morning's Washington Post
"you're paying us 10 million per school, if we add 4 schools, you have to pay us 40 million more, but we're only going to give those 4 new schools 2-4 million each, and split the rest up among ourselves."
Why in hell would the B12 not do this?
Because the teams they have to add suck.
Wait what?
“I may be wrong and other people may see it differently, but I don’t think anyone could be in a better situation than the teams we have in our conference,” Snyder said. “I’ll tell you what. There are teams that left our conference right now that wish they could get back in our conference.”
Snyder did not mention which schools want to rejoin, but he did respond to a follow-up question by saying “Two I know of”.
http://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/big-12-bill-snyder-two-teams-want-back-in/
Snyder did not mention which schools want to rejoin, but he did respond to a follow-up question by saying “Two I know of”.
http://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/big-12-bill-snyder-two-teams-want-back-in/
I wonder if that statement comes from a coach that doesnt like the new level of competition. It most certainly doesnt come from an AD or administrator that cashes the royalty checks.
It would have to be Missouri and Nebraska if anyone, but I could also imagine a conversation between him and an AD/Coach/Admin casually said, "We'd love to be back in the Big 12 playing our old rivals."
And that's my point. Long term, the Pac staying at 12 while everyone else goes to 14 is worrisome, unless the Big 12 is just looking for a money grab for the next 8 years and will eventually dissolve, leaving UT, OU and the rest open for Pac expansion to 16.
Also, I don't understand how people can brush this off so easily in terms of how it affects the Pac financially. The P12 is **** compared to the other conferences in terms of revenue it brings in, and just standing pat in an awful west coast time zone is not making things better.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ic-department-finances-sec-big-ten-pac-12-acc
I see the issue. I don't see how adding Houston and Kansas fixes the problem. Addin UT and Oklahoma sure as hell would.