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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

TSchekler said:
If the Big 12 expands to 14, the Pac 12 will be the only 12 team P5 conference. The Pac already has the worst TV deals/network out there with the worst time zone for college football and no inroads to Texas. As Jens said yesterday, the Pac better be watching this situation closely and getting ready to expand itself. The Big 12 fiasco used to entertaining to say the least, but I'm worried about the Pac getting left behind or stuck with the undesirable G5 teams for expansion.
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Maybe, but the PAC also has flexibility because we wholly own our TV network. The BIG has supposedly gone for a shorter term TV deal this time around. What happens if the BIG and the PAC decide to merge the bidding for their TV rights during the next negotiation period? I'm not saying its likely but it would certainly make for huge leverage with the networks.
 
SuperD said:
Maybe, but the PAC also has flexibility because we wholly own our TV network. The BIG has supposedly gone for a shorter term TV deal this time around. What happens if the BIG and the PAC decide to merge the bidding for their TV rights during the next negotiation period? I'm not saying its likely but it would certainly make for huge leverage with the networks.
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While they might be in the unique position of owning their own network. The network (1) only broadcasts teams in the two least desirable time zones, and (2) doesn't broadcast nationally.

One of the major issues that many are failing to realize is that IF 16 teams becomes requisite to thrive, by waiting for the Big XII to reassert itself back into national prominence by adding teams like Houston, Cincy, etc., it leaves the Pac-12 at a disadvantage because their options will be limited. For example, by keeping hold of UT, OU and KU, while adding Houston and others, what options would the Pac-12 be left with? UNLV, SDSU, BYU, AF, Boise, San Jose, Fresno, BYU. Nothing that jumps off the page. And no teams that add a beneficial market to the conference. So the PAC would be choosing the "leftover" teams or jump a state or two to the Midwest/south.

Again, this is all predicated on whether or not 16 teams becomes necessary, but if college football is trending that way, wouldn't you want the PAC to kick the tires on a Houston, OU, KU - and as much as I would hate it, UT expansion?

And on a side note, adding schools that care more about their athletic programs than the current PAC schools could act as a catalyst to finally getting the network carried nationally.
 
Buffs35 said:
While they might be in the unique position of owning their own network. The network (1) only broadcasts teams in the two least desirable time zones, and (2) doesn't broadcast nationally.

One of the major issues that many are failing to realize is that IF 16 teams becomes requisite to thrive, by waiting for the Big XII to reassert itself back into national prominence by adding teams like Houston, Cincy, etc., it leaves the Pac-12 at a disadvantage because their options will be limited. For example, by keeping hold of UT, OU and KU, while adding Houston and others, what options would the Pac-12 be left with? UNLV, SDSU, BYU, AF, Boise, San Jose, Fresno, BYU. Nothing that jumps off the page. And no teams that add a beneficial market to the conference. So the PAC would be choosing the "leftover" teams or jump a state or two to the Midwest/south.

Again, this is all predicated on whether or not 16 teams becomes necessary, but if college football is trending that way, wouldn't you want the PAC to kick the tires on a Houston, OU, KU - and as much as I would hate it, UT expansion?

And on a side note, adding schools that care more about their athletic programs than the current PAC schools could act as a catalyst to finally getting the network carried nationally.
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And that is what I mean by being careful about getting outmaneuvered and by being in a bad spot geographically.

a) the P12 has a natural border to the West and nowhere to go but east.
b) the P12 currently operates in the two least desirable time zones. The Pacific and Mountain time zones together have a smaller population than the Central time zone.
c) there are currently 2 potentially attainable schools that bring enough to the plate and that make somewhat sense geographically. If/when those 2 are gone because they go to another conference or the B12 stabilizes itself enough for them to stay, the P12 will have been outmaneuvered and will only have scraps to pick from.
 
People keep talking like we have a bunch of options now. We don't.

There are only two teams that would be accretive. Neither is interested.
 
SuperD said:
Maybe, but the PAC also has flexibility because we wholly own our TV network. The BIG has supposedly gone for a shorter term TV deal this time around. What happens if the BIG and the PAC decide to merge the bidding for their TV rights during the next negotiation period? I'm not saying its likely but it would certainly make for huge leverage with the networks.
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I would encourage people to at least scan the Nielson ratings site I posted earlier.

It's pretty sobering to look at in terms of conferences being in a position to negotiate paydays with networks.

Something becomes pretty obvious, pretty fast:

Notre Dame, tOSU, and Michigan have TV drawing power like no other individual schools command. Some SEC schools can combine to match them, as can OU and UT, but no team, or combination of teams, from the Pac12 or ACC are at that same level.

In math terms of TV ratings, ND = tOSU = Michigan = top 2 or 3 of SEC = OU + UT > top 2 or 3 of ACC = top 2 or 3 of Pac12.

We're never going to get B1G or SEC or, ugh, B12 levels of TV revenue on our tier 1 and 2 media contracts unless that changes. It would theoretically be unconscionable for the ACC to get a better contract than the Pac12, except that they have rights to some ND games - so again, they will outperform.

If the Pac12 is going to match (or at least come close to) the revenue of the other conferences it has to do one or all of the following:
1. Generate more revenue from its tier 3 rights (Pac12 network)
2. Get one or both of OU & UT to join.
3. Get its natural fan/alumni base as engaged as the teams in the top tier so that the TV ratings of USC/UCLA or USC/Colorado or UW/Oregon match OU/OSU, Michigan/Wisconsin, or tOSU/Penn State.

In the third scenario, we'll never match OU/UT or tOSU/Michigan, so they'll always be a little bit ahead, but we need to at least keep it close.

Given what we know about how well the Pac 12 network has gone, and how generally unengaged with college football the natural Pac12 alumni/fan base is, I'd say the best chance for keeping up with the joneses on revenue is by figuring out a way to bring OU and/or UT into the conference.
 
Its not inevitable by any stretch-First, who outside of BYU (and that's assuming Cal/Stanford/UCLA and maybe Utah go with that) and somebody else that would ride their coattails from a numbers perspective (lets assume this is New Mexico for the sake of this exercise) makes sense? Second, we're at a size as a league where it doesn't make sense to add unless the Big 12 dies. We're fine at 12. Getting a deal with DTV is the much bigger key.
 
Honestly, I wouldn't mind Nebraska. I know they aren't AAU, but that would be good for us. They would step in and be the red headed step child (no pun intended) of the conference. Being Nebraska, there's nothing in the state tying them to anything else (i.e. Okla/OSU, KU/KSU, etc.) and they don't have any natural rivals in the Big 10. We'd finally have a rival. And I think (no proof) that they draw a pretty good following when they are on TV. And if we're going to take them, do it now while they're down.
 
Common sens wise (which means there is no way it would happen):
ACC adds West Virginia and Notre Dame joins as a full member
Big-10: Kansas joins and Mizzou comes from SEC
SEC: TCU, Baylor and Houston
Pac-12: Texas, OU, OSU and TTU (renamed the Pacific-West conference haha)

Iowa St. and Kansas St. get left out unfortunately.

Interesting segment with Joel Klatt on Cowherd's show yesterday saying he thinks there needs to be one more power conference than playoff spots so keep from diluting the playoff itself (USC could have been in the playoff last year with 4 losses if they beat Stanford) and to keep the end of the regular season competitive.
 
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dio said:
Nalen and Kreckman saw no downsides with CSU!!

I think they are a decent option for Big12.... But a step below about 5 other schools.
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The issue is that they are one of the best options for the big-12 but that is because the options are not very good for the Big-12. Depending on what the presidents are looking at CSU could be near the top of the list (for example if they are looking at high research dollars to share between all of the member schools) but every one of these schools outside of maybe BYU has massive downsides. BSU doesn't have the market or academics, Memphis doesn't have a great academic profile, UCONN is way far away and lacks success in football but has a huge brand, UCF is far away and is also lacking a good academic profile, USF is a glorified commuter school, under NCAA investigation and lacks following in a SEC/ACC dominated state, CSU hasn't had much football success outside of one 10 win season and lacks a big time following in a highly saturated sports market which is hard to gain attention and Houston currently resides inside the footprint (which actually doesn't matter with the TV deal since the location of the school doesn't matter they automatically get the same amount as other teams) but schools are not going to want to give them more resources to recruit against them. Cincy is really the only one I can see as a sure add right now.
 
Good lord no. The last thing we need are those inbred mouth breathers in the PAC 12.
 
Well, the following started as a short post and then my mind started racing along and it turned into a 64-team P4 domino effect plan. Some serious offseason mental masturbation needs were satisfied. (y):D

When I look at the B1G and its setup with member institutions (AAU universities except for Nebraska, large state land grant universities, geographic connection), expansion that makes the most sense is adding Kansas and Missouri. It's the one conference that could take a team from the SEC without it being a pay cut. I think they would prefer OU and UT for obvious reasons, but I'm hoping it's KU/MU that becomes the reality. It makes a hell of a lot more sense for getting this stuff organized the way it should be.

350px-B1Gmap14.png


So, if that were to happen, the SEC is the next mover that would make sense. With the GOR extension of the ACC, it's hard to see them go raiding there. That would mean looking at the Big 12. Again, they'd make a play for OU and UT. But do those schools really want the academic affiliation? Seems like it's not a great fit, especially for UT (plus aTm & Arkansas would fight against UT tooth and nail). But the SEC wants those Texas televisions and recruiting grounds. I'd guess they end up with OU, OSU and Baylor. This would, again, give the map some great symmetry with a 16-team conference.
Basically, what you see below but swapping UT for Baylor:
16-team-sec.jpg


Which brings us to the ACC. Notre Dame could stay independent or, if it joins a conference, is locked into choosing the ACC. Frankly, the ACC should drop Wake Forest as a member but I think that's out of the real of reality. Assuming Notre Dame is added for a 15th, UConn makes the most sense for #16 considering academic strength and how much the conference values basketball. However, if we look at rivalries, WVU may make even more sense than UConn. Syracuse already has a partner in the Northeast with Boston College. Pitt's traditional rival is WVU. Louisville sits out there kind of alone but pairs for travel with Notre Dame & West Virginia bridges the rest of the geography. Plus, after the loss of Maryland, WVU probably helps get back into that state more strongly for recruiting and boosters. Last, this is always primarily about football and WVU is a stronger play than UConn by a country mile. So I'm going to assume Notre Dame plus West Virginia to the ACC.
ACCMap.jpg

So this leaves the Pac-12 expanding to a Pac-16. Kansas has been taken off the board, as has Oklahoma. So we're looking at graduate research, media markets, and trying to make geographic sense. My suspicion, despite my desire to believe otherwise, is that the schools within the footprint that make the most sense are non-starters due to some mix of politics, not being additive to media market, and lack of academic research opportunities. Texas is the key. And I believe that UT will want to have a pod it can dominate. So, in this scenario, I think we lose the opportunities for SDSU, BYU, Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico. Instead, we end up with a Texas pod of UT, TTU, TCU and UH with the Longhorn Network becoming the Pac-12 Texas channel through a deal that would have to be worked out with ESPN & UT.

Pac-16:
California Pod: Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Northwest Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
Mountain Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
Texas Pod: Houston, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Pac16Map.jpg

And now we have our 16-team P4 conferences. Some good programs left out, for sure.

Someone will probably try to cobble together an "American" conference that could make a case for a P5: UConn, Cincinnati, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Temple, Boise State, BYU, SDSU, Fresno State, Memphis, CSU plus 4 more to get to 16 (probably look at UTSA, SMU, Tulane, LA Tech, UAB, UNLV and others).
 
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Good post Buffnik: Could also see this scenario happening and it is all dependent on where Notre Dame wants to go.
ACC adds West Virginia and UCONN
Big-10: Kansas and Notre Dame
SEC: TCU and Baylor
Pac-12: Texas, OU, OSU and TTU, people like to discount that possibility of OU and Texas joining the Pac-12 but it is the only possibility if OU, OSU and UT want to stick together which I think will be a factor for maintaining rivalries and political reasons.
 
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