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Polls, rankings and bowl projections

Buffnik said:
I'm not talking about how opponents of opponents do. That's when it gets ridiculous. I'm talking about whether to rank Cal over BYU. Cal beat BYU in their building and is undefeated. And based on what we've seen on the field, why should I assume that Wisconsin is that good of a win? I watched that game. Wisconsin is slow.
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Fine but by that logic, should BYU and Cal both be ranked ahead of Wisconsin?
 
Buffnik said:
I'm not talking about how opponents of opponents do. That's when it gets ridiculous. I'm talking about whether to rank Cal over BYU. Cal beat BYU in their building and is undefeated. And based on what we've seen on the field, why should I assume that Wisconsin is that good of a win? I watched that game. Wisconsin is slow.
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This is a good example of the preseason rankings creating a bias. Without that bias, you’re right, Cal is 3-0 and beat BYU, so they deserve to be ranked ahead of them. In reality, though, BYU beat a top 10 team on the road, where no OOC Team has won in like 20 years. That carries more weight than Cal beating BYU because it’s what happened this week, and the media doesn’t really go back to previous week when making rankings. It’s not basketball.
 
This would be my AP poll if they gave me a vote:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Clemson
7. Penn State
8. Stanford
9. Virginia Tech
10. West Virginia
11. Mississippi State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Notre Dame
14. Auburn
15. Washington
16. TCU
17. UCF
18. Iowa
19. Oregon
20. Texas A&M
21. Cal
22. Kentucky
23. BYU
24. Wisconsin
25. Duke
 
SINKRATZ said:
That logic works early in the season I suppose, but just ranking teams ahead of who they beat falls apart as the season goes on. I just don't believe Cal is one of the best 25 teams in the country - not by a long shot.
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Head-to-head and common opponents absolutely continue to matter as the season goes on. Record has to be there, but then you go straight to those things.
 
Buffnik said:
Head-to-head and common opponents absolutely continue to matter as the season goes on. Record has to be there, but then you go straight to those things.
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Of course it matters, but let's say BYU beats UW in 2 weeks and Cal loses to Oregon and beats Arizona - there's no way I rank Cal ahead of BYU in that scenario even though both would be 5-1 and Cal beat them head to head.
 
Buffnik said:
This would be my AP poll if they gave me a vote:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Clemson
7. Penn State
8. Stanford
9. Virginia Tech
10. West Virginia
11. Mississippi State
12. Oklahoma State
13. Notre Dame
14. Auburn
15. Washington
16. TCU
17. UCF
18. Iowa
19. Oregon
20. Texas A&M
21. Cal
22. Kentucky
23. BYU
24. Wisconsin
25. Duke
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me thinks you are giving Whoregon too much credit
 
SINKRATZ said:
Of course it matters, but let's say BYU beats UW in 2 weeks and Cal loses to Oregon and beats Arizona - there's no way I rank Cal ahead of BYU in that scenario even though both would be 5-1 and Cal beat them head to head.
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Of course. Record always comes first. If teams have common records, the first thing you go to when comparing them is head-to-head. If they haven't played, the next thing you go to is common opponents.
 
buff4bcs1985 said:
29th in the Coaches poll

http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
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#29 is a good spot for our Buffs right now. The only thing that's unfair is the bias from preseason polls leading to what Klatt bitched about. Basically, if Wisconsin (or Michigan, Washington, etc.) doesn't finish the season with any super high quality wins and goes 9-3 there is no doubt that they will end up ranked much higher than a Colorado team that goes 9-3 without any super high quality wins. Hell, their 9-3 could rank higher than our 10-2 with the way this is set up. Instead of polls, I'd much prefer "Power Rankings" from ESPN, FOX, NBC and CBS to create a composite "ranking". The only reason these ranks exist is to drive tv views anyway, so they may as well be done by the entities that broadcast all the games.
 
Buffnik said:
#29 is a good spot for our Buffs right now. The only thing that's unfair is the bias from preseason polls leading to what Klatt bitched about. Basically, if Wisconsin (or Michigan, Washington, etc.) doesn't finish the season with any super high quality wins and goes 9-3 there is no doubt that they will end up ranked much higher than a Colorado team that goes 9-3 without any super high quality wins. Hell, their 9-3 could rank higher than our 10-2 with the way this is set up. Instead of polls, I'd much prefer "Power Rankings" from ESPN, FOX, NBC and CBS to create a composite "ranking". The only reason these ranks exist is to drive tv views anyway, so they may as well be done by the entities that broadcast all the games.
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I never get those Power Rankings, especially ESPN. Is it just one writer (Schlabach last week) or a composite of many writers.

I prefer the Vegas, Phil Steele versions of Power Ratings, even FPI, but especially SOR. .
 
Buffnik said:
Of course. Record always comes first. If teams have common records, the first thing you go to when comparing them is head-to-head. If they haven't played, the next thing you go to is common opponents.
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It's early, we'll see what happens as the season goes along, but no way do I rank Cal above BYU in that scenario where both are 5-1.
 
SINKRATZ said:
It's early, we'll see what happens as the season goes along, but no way do I rank Cal above BYU in that scenario where both are 5-1.
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In that scenario, Cal loses at home to Oregon while BYU wins at Washington over their next 3 games. If that happens, I agree with you that BYU would have moved ahead of Cal.
 
TSchekler said:
Yes and no. Coaches don’t get to watch every game (neither do media members) but they at least know what good football teams look like and have informed opinions. Many in the media have regional/conference bias and that lingers for a long time throughout the season.
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Just saying that the coaches historically have NEVER dropped a team based on opponent and score. They only look at the 1-0.
 
Buffnik said:
#29 is a good spot for our Buffs right now. The only thing that's unfair is the bias from preseason polls leading to what Klatt bitched about. Basically, if Wisconsin (or Michigan, Washington, etc.) doesn't finish the season with any super high quality wins and goes 9-3 there is no doubt that they will end up ranked much higher than a Colorado team that goes 9-3 without any super high quality wins. Hell, their 9-3 could rank higher than our 10-2 with the way this is set up. Instead of polls, I'd much prefer "Power Rankings" from ESPN, FOX, NBC and CBS to create a composite "ranking". The only reason these ranks exist is to drive tv views anyway, so they may as well be done by the entities that broadcast all the games.
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The AP also agrees... 29th in that poll as well
https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
 
Buffnik said:
In that scenario, Cal loses at home to Oregon while BYU wins at Washington over their next 3 games. If that happens, I agree with you that BYU would have moved ahead of Cal.
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Right, which means that this...
Buffnik said:
If teams have common records, the first thing you go to when comparing them is head-to-head.
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is not always the case. Both would be 5-1 with Cal owning the head to head but shouldn't be ranked higher.
 
Buffnik said:
Exactly. It's so early. A win over Wisconsin may end up being as meh by the end of the season as Alabama's win over FSU was last year.
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True, and BYU's SOS is sky high in September because they're playing P5 teams every week.........drops alot when you start factoring the FCS, AAC, and G5's they play in October and November.
 
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