I have confidence in this game for a lot of reasons, but mostly because CSU lost 9/11 starters on defense, their two legit playmaking WRs on offense, and has a mediocre QB. On the CU side, we didn't lose much in the way of impact starters (Spruce, Crawley and Nembot, but none are irreplaceable, IMO), we have a more experienced team with a 4th year Senior QB (some people debate whether this is a good thing or not, but I believe Sefo plays well this year), we have our best DL back (Tupou), get our best LB back (Gillam), and have one of the best and most experienced secondaries in the Pac 12. CSU is also breaking in a new defensive coordinator and a new scheme that isn't going to transition without some hiccups in week one, while CU's defense is now in year two of Jim Leavitt's system and should be more comfortable than in year one.
The only advantage I see CSU potentially having is on the OL, but with Tupou back and Samson clear of any suspension, along with Carrell a year advanced, I honestly don't know if CSU even holds the advantage there. On paper, this game shouldn't be close. I will acknowledge the rivalry factor that makes CSU play above their talent level, but as a fan, I have no problem being very confident. It's the coaches and players' jobs not to let the confidence turn into arrogance.