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San Diego State @ CU Game thread - 11/28 @ 3 PM MT on P12 Network

Gary Indiana said:
Do yourself a favor and put him on ignore. I did months ago and it has been fantastic.

All he wants to do is argue inane sh*t and it ruins most threads.
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He needs my approval too much to do that. And yes I know this guy can't see my post. but that's made for some really funny posts recently
 
just to kinda halfway get this back on topic...

wilner reported that sdsu has been prepping for "days" for this game with CU. i would like to know more about that. because we know kd said the Buffs were only prepping for usc (until last night).

anyone know anything about sdsu? are they any good? feels like a trap game a little bit, but that's probably just the long term CU football anxiety talking.
 
Liver said:
just to kinda halfway get this back on topic...

wilner reported that sdsu has been prepping for "days" for this game with CU. i would like to know more about that. because we know kd said the Buffs were only prepping for usc (until last night).

anyone know anything about sdsu? are they any good? feels like a trap game a little bit, but that's probably just the long term CU football anxiety talking.
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Top 10 defense nationally. Bad passing game. Solid running game. Worst strength of schedule in the nation.
 
Darth Snow said:
Every public advanced stats/prediction model has SDSU as better than us despite their weak schedule. This sharp action makes sense to me. Public perception doesn't match performance expectations.
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There was significant buyback on Colorado from sharp money to make Colorado the favorite. Some connects I have are saying there were guys who were setting up the books with the early SDSU money.
 
manhattanbuf said:
Their internal metrics (formula is mostly their prediction for game + their perception of where the sharp market will buy).
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So Circa opening as a pickem and quickly shifting to SDSU being favored, would lead me to believe that their prediction of the game and perception of sharp market leaned toward SDSU. Therefore, I feel like it’s reasonable to say “Vegas hates CU”
 
TSchekler said:
So Circa opening as a pickem and quickly shifting to SDSU being favored, would lead me to believe that their prediction of the game and perception of sharp market leaned toward SDSU. Therefore, I feel like it’s reasonable to say “Vegas hates CU”
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Huh?

There’s greater context. The game was a pickem because the book was trying to have the market help them. There was significant early money from sharp bettors, not the casino. They moved the line because they respect the bettors. It turns out that the early money was a setup to get a wide middle in a weird spot. Now that even more sharp money has poured in on CU when CU were dogs (including a smidge from John and me), we saw a significant move to make CU a favorite.

Expect CU to close a favorite just around 6. That’s a big swing.
 
manhattanbuf said:
Huh?

There’s greater context. The game was a pickem because the book was trying to have the market help them. There was significant early money from sharp bettors, not the casino. They moved the line because they respect the bettors. It turns out that the early money was a setup to get a wide middle in a weird spot. Now that even more sharp money has poured in on CU when CU were dogs (including a smidge from John and me), we saw a significant move to make CU a favorite.

Expect CU to close a favorite just around 6. That’s a big swing.
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It’s your world, I’m just living in it man
 
TSchekler said:
It’s your world, I’m just living in it man
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I am just disagreeing with the LV hates CU claim. This is a bizarro game and situation, including some head games from sharps to make the line fluctuate. The books are agnostic about teams; they have perceptions of better or worse using statistics and the feel of their bookmakers. Bettors are the ones who shape the markets. Over the last 10-15 years, betting against Colorado has been lucrative. It’s a perception deal.
 
manhattanbuf said:
I am just disagreeing with the LV hates CU claim. This is a bizarro game and situation, including some head games from sharps to make the line fluctuate. The books are agnostic about teams; they have perceptions of better or worse using statistics and the feel of their bookmakers. Bettors are the ones who shape the markets. Over the last 10-15 years, betting against Colorado has been lucrative. It’s a perception deal.
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Agree for the most part, but it’s not just this game. CU was 6.5 point dogs against UCLA and the same or bigger dogs against Stanford. I can understand the UCLA line a little, but the Stanford line was the biggest wtf of the week.

But yes, I get what you’re saying and I’m obviously not in a position to question LV methods.
 
TSchekler said:
Agree for the most part, but it’s not just this game. CU was 6.5 point dogs against UCLA and the same or bigger dogs against Stanford. I can understand the UCLA line a little, but the Stanford line was the biggest wtf of the week.

But yes, I get what you’re saying and I’m obviously not in a position to question LV methods.
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CU could have beat UCLA by 30 and they would have still been a dog in the Stanford game.
 
patebuff said:
CU could have beat UCLA by 30 and they would have still been a dog in the Stanford game.
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Which makes zero sense. It’s not shocking that Stanford is not good this year. And honestly, it shouldn’t really be shocking that CU is sitting at 2-0 right now.
 
TSchekler said:
Agree for the most part, but it’s not just this game. CU was 6.5 point dogs against UCLA and the same or bigger dogs against Stanford. I can understand the UCLA line a little, but the Stanford line was the biggest wtf of the week.

But yes, I get what you’re saying and I’m obviously not in a position to question LV methods.
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This season is difficult to bet and book. The Stanford game was a transative deal considering how tough Stanford played Oregon in the first half.

TBH, I don’t think anyone outside of the program (me included) would think that CU would be as good as they have been. Noyer the Destroyer and Brew have basically been top 5 players in the country at their respective positions through two games.
 
FYI to everyone ... the game is @ 1pm MT. Can I suggest that if the OP is going to post ET, that be made clear in the headline? Wouldn't want people to miss the first half.
 
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